Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
Peter Worthington

GET UPDATES FROM Peter Worthington
 

Mulcair and Harper's Quebec Tug-of-War

Posted: 06/29/2012 7:56 am

According to Thomas Mulcair, the recently crowned federal NDP leader, the fact that Prime Minister Stephen Harper would consult former Tory prime minister Brian Mulroney about Quebec, proves how little he understands that province.

Think about that for a moment on this Canada Day weekend.

Does Mulcair truly think Harper consulting the prime minister who won the greatest election victory in Canada's history -- 211 of 282 Commons' seats -- is a gesture of ignorance? Or is he fearful that it was a shrewd ploy by Harper to regain support in Quebec?

I'd argue the latter. And I'd also argue that Mulcair's apparently dismissive remarks are evidence of his concern about his own fate in the next federal election.

Harper's Conservatives won their first majority in the last federal election
without support from Quebec, where the NDP thrashed and trashed the other parties --
especially the Liberals and Bloc -- and became the official opposition for the first (and perhaps last?) time in Canada's history.

Next time round it is inevitable that the NDP will lose seats in Quebec, most likely to the Bloc Quebecois. There is little Mulcair can do to stop this from happening, but he is trying mightily to curb a drain-off.

He's managed to alienate the west with criticisms of Alberta and oil production and environmental issues -- all in hope of shoring up support in Quebec.

Mulcair is no dummy, and knows that the huge NDP win in Quebec in the last election (59 of 75 seats -- the Liberals got seven) is credited to the late Jack Layton, so any drop in seats in the next election will be blamed on him. Not fair, not correct, but inevitable. That's politics, that's reality.
Harper taking some 18 cabinet ministers into Quebec for St-Jean-Baptiste Day
celebrations, and declaring that his government can work with a Parti Quebecois provincial government, is little more than good sense, good politics and good news.

Of course the federal government will work with whatever party forms a provincial government. So it should.

Quebeckers have proven they are not puppets of any party. Sure, they do what they can to gain concessions from Ottawa, and are not loath to try blackmailing the federal government for benefits. And they succeed more than any party or any other province.

But they all try it, and tend to resent Quebec for being better at it than most.

Quebeckers, too, must realize that Canada (and Quebec) are blessed with a federal government that has contributed to Canada being the most blessed developed country in the world, at a time when economic and social woes wrack Europe and threaten the U.S.

Harper is legitimately worried about the turmoil and collapse of euro currency in Europe affecting Canada. As an economist, he is more alert to dangers than other politicians. And all this is good luck for our country.

The Liberals are soon to choose a leader -- another bid for charisma that they hope won't explode in their faces as previous choices have. And Mulcair is always a time-bomb, which is both part of his appeal and his vulnerability.

So Harper wooing Quebec is reasonable and reassuring -- on condition that he doesn't get swept away by generosity, and give away the store.

Quebec gave Harper five seats in 2011 -- but gave Mulroney 58 seats in 1984. Harper would be nuts not to consult Brian on future prospects.

 
FOLLOW CANADA POLITICS
According to Thomas Mulcair, the recently crowned federal NDP leader, the fact that Prime Minister Stephen Harper would consult former Tory prime minister Brian Mulroney about Quebec, proves how littl...
According to Thomas Mulcair, the recently crowned federal NDP leader, the fact that Prime Minister Stephen Harper would consult former Tory prime minister Brian Mulroney about Quebec, proves how littl...
 
 
  • Comments
  • 18
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Favorites
Recency  | 
Popularity
Page: 1 2  Next ›  Last »  (2 total)
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Postmodern Anger
12:48 AM on 07/03/2012
Having a bunch of jerks that insults you every day suddenly coming over when you make an open house party and claim you're best buddies.

Harper's only chance at re-election is not winning quebec's votes but losing them to the point Quebec leaves or is kicked out.
01:51 AM on 06/30/2012
If Mulroney was such a genius when it comes to Quebec then surely he should have stayed on running the PCP and swept Quebec in 1993! Harper is damaged goods and Canada's doing better than others is in spite of Harper, not because of Harper. We in Quebec do not credit Harper with anything good and we are right with that assessment. I think the best thing for us was seven years of minority government; no one to force pain on ordinary people "for our own good" that always harms the demand side of the economy and thus the economy itself.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dredesch
10:14 PM on 06/29/2012
What a bunch of crock. Just because Mulroney got 58 MNA's almost 30 years ago doesn't mean Harper could ever pull that trick again, especially with the policies of his government which seem designed to irritate and disadvantage Quebec.

It will take more than a few barbecues to overcome that. NDP support has actually increased in Quebec since the last election. The esteemed Mr. Worthington writes of the last federal election in "Quebec, where the NDP thrashed and trashed the other parties --especially the Liberals and Bloc". Perhaps he should remember that least popular were the conservatives.

The conservatives have already lost the "tug of war" in Quebec to the NDP. By a country mile. And what it would take to overcome that would never fly elsewhere in Canada. At a time where NDP support is also on the rise in English Canada, the conservatives can't afford to antagonize their anti-Quebec segment by appearing to make concessions to Quebec, especially with a possible PQ government.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
greenmonk
The Only Thing We Have to Fear Is Fear Itself
09:55 PM on 06/29/2012
You should welcome an NDP government Peter. At least you could finally do your job and concentrate on holding the federal government's feet to the fire instead of having to focus on bashing the opposition, the ones with no power.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
04:49 PM on 06/29/2012
"Harper taking some 18 cabinet ministers into Quebec for St-Jean-Baptiste Day
celebrations, and declaring that his government can work with a Parti Quebecois provincial government, is little more than good sense, good politics and good news."

Um, good news for who? The leader of the PQ was happy her party was being taken seriously. Others thought it was a little premature since an election hasn't even been called yet. Recent polls show Charest is doing better, a little ahead of the PQ, although winning a 4th election in a row will obviously be a challenge.

Most Canadians, let alone most Quebecers, do not feel "blessed" by the Harper Government.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
AuntiFascist
Democracy is dead in Canada
03:32 PM on 06/29/2012
Peter Worthington says,

"As an economist, he is more alert to dangers than other politicians. And all this is good luck for our country."

But what has Harper done with this so called knowledge? His fiscal management of Canada has been bungling at best, budgeting is a farce, and every time one turned arounds there is another example of waste or a breach of the Governments fiduciary responsibilities.

This Worthington post is yet another piece of Conservative propaganda. Mr. Worthington I say that your statement that "As an economist, he is more alert to dangers than other politicians. And all this is good luck for our country." is bogus.
02:52 PM on 06/29/2012
Harper's wooing will go nowhere in Quebec, because his policies are so often the opposite of the prevailing wishes of the Quebecois. Voters who support environmentalism, the gun registry, day care and health care, like those in Quebec, can't find a reason to vote for Harper.

Now if Harper had consulted David Suzuki, Mulcair might have reason to be worried about the Quebec vote.
02:32 PM on 06/29/2012
However well Mulroney may have done in the 1988 election has absolutely nothing to do with how Quebecers percieve him now (hint: take a look at how well the Progressive Conservatives did in the 1993 election). More importantly, the dislike Quebecers may feel towards Mulroney is nothing compared to how much Harper is hated in this province. Mulcair has absolutely nothing to worry about from that front, and I'm thankful for that. Makes me proud to be a Quebecer.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
djelimon17
what's this thing for?
01:51 PM on 06/29/2012
One big problem with the narrative presented here:

If its all about Jack Layton why is the NDP still kicking so much derri? in the polls?
01:48 PM on 06/29/2012
Quebec will take whatever Harper is willing to give them, with smiles all around. But they will never vote for him.
01:44 PM on 06/29/2012
Just build them an NHL Arena and get Gary Bettman to approve of a new team for Quebec. Oh yeah, and get the F35 Service contract based out of ST Hubert. Done.. Remember don't piss off the Dairy Farmers, Canadians like paying a lot for their Butter.
03:54 PM on 06/30/2012
unenlightened post of drivel as usual. keep it up we need all need a good laugh.
photo
HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
Skepticat
Supporting skeptical felines everywhere
01:30 PM on 06/29/2012
Last time I politely suggested that Mr Worthington should know better about a particular issue given 50 years of involvement in the journalism industry the comment was inexplicably pulled so this time I'll try not to say anything to upset conservative sensibilities - but quietly think that perhaps Mr Worthington's assessment of Mulroney as a font of knowledge about the contemporary Quebec scene may not be universally shared. Be interesting to see if this comment is allowed to surface.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
sgillhoolley
Occupy the discussion.
12:01 PM on 06/29/2012
I dont think Mulcair has anything to worry about. The conservatives, especially Harper, are generally despised here in Quebec. I doubt they will be able to pick up one new seat. Quebec is already saturated with conservatives...meaning there is no more room here for them.
11:51 AM on 06/29/2012
Willful blindness, as usual, from Worthington. If it's not Conservative blue, he hates it, however nicely he puts it. I doubt very much that the more sophisticated voters of Quebec will be fooled by Harper's sudden interest in them.
04:38 PM on 06/29/2012
No need to be sophisticated to see through Harper.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
10:59 AM on 06/29/2012
Worthington, you are so smug. I wouldn't bet the farm on your being right if I were you.