Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
GET UPDATES FROM Sheryl Saperia
 
GET UPDATES FROM Danny Eisen
 

The Obama-Rouhani Playbook for Aspiring Tyrants

Posted: 10/18/2013 1:36 pm

Upon completion of his term in office, President Obama will bequeath to his successor a world indelibly scarred by the current crisis in Iran. For regardless of whether Iran's nuclear treasures are successfully wrested from the hands of the mullahs, the current presidents of Iran and the U.S. will have left behind -- to the great detriment of the West -- a plausible roadmap for all aspiring autocrats. This legacy has a simple tenet: Nuclear weaponry is not a necessity in achieving autocratic success. But the credible threat of developing such weapons is an invaluable asset -- a purveyor of leverage well worth the risks, sanctions and pain that are entailed.

The efficacy of the new doctrine has already been demonstrated. Without giving an inch and with remarkable alacrity, new Iranian president Hassan Rouhani has successfully positioned himself within reach of a possible handshake with Obama -- a handshake that is likely to leave the latter with fewer fingers in the aftermath. Rouhani has proven that the rattling of a nuclear sabre is capable of bringing both advantage and legitimacy to even the vilest regimes and most pre-eminent terror sponsors if negotiated away with temperance.

For those of us unbeguiled by Rouhani's "charm offensive", the absence of his predecessor's malicious diatribes is keenly felt. Former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wore the trophies of his regime's vicious exploits with unabashed pride and shared the regime's genocidal musings without apology. His candour regarding the true intentions and convictions of Iran's Islamic Republic were essential ingredients in rousing a European diplomatic culture seduced by its own rhetoric and the notion that Iran's illicit behaviour and nuclear ambitions could be modified through the lure of profits. Iran certainly did profit, pouring billions of those dollars into its nuclear program, while proceeding unhindered in executing tens of thousands of Iranian citizens and incarcerating millions of others.

The charmless Ahmadinejad disrupted this mutually beneficial dynamic with his inability to strike the right balance between genocidal banter and diplomatic pillow talk. His unremitting anti-Semitism -- ringing with historical authenticity -- laid bare the pathological Jew-hatred of the Khomeinist creed, and amplified the threat of a unilateral Israeli response. The menace posed by Iran's leadership was suddenly taken seriously, and so were the warnings of the Jewish state. Israel was clear: it would not be preparing wreaths for Jewish victims of an Iranian nuclear genocide, but assembling missiles to neutralize the danger, if other options were to fail.

Ahmadinejad's caustic rhetoric reinvigorated American opposition to the regime and catalyzed the international community to acknowledge grudgingly that concerns regarding Tehran could no longer be swept under a barrel of oil. With little recourse, the world reluctantly began to take steps to rescue Iran from the Islamic Republic, and the region from nuclear threat.

However, Rouhani's promotion by Obama to moderate-in-chief has spelled a return of the failed policy of reasonable accommodation with one of the world's most ruthless and mendacious regimes. Consequently, the Islamic Revolution is one step closer to a "win-win" scenario for Iran, regardless of any deal Rouhani may sign, betray or reject.

One possible scenario allows Iran to walk away with the coveted prize of a weaponized nuclear capacity. Extended negotiations, particularly with a good will reduction or even status quo of current sanctions, may enable Iran to hold on long enough to pass the nuclear threshold, estimated by various experts to be realized by June 2014. Once this occurs, the regime has good reason to believe that a self-proclaimed "war-weary" Obama will move to a policy of containment and ultimately to acceptance of a new nuclear reality.

Iran's second option offers another type of victory. The regime could agree to forfeit its nuclear weapons potential in exchange for a truly priceless commodity: leverage. To wit, Iran has never needed nuclear weaponry to achieve its short- and medium- range goals. What the mullahs require is the leverage to proceed without undue interference from other countries. And an Iranian agreement to forgo nuclear weapons - however elusive in practice - would provide that leverage. Not unlike the present agreement with Syria, such a deal would mitigate future intervention against Iran by Western leaders wary of destabilizing a newly brokered agreement on Iran's nuclear program. For all intents and purposes, this would impose a Western no-fly-zone over Iran's many theatres of atrocity, giving the regime a wide berth and increased cash flow to pursue its openly proclaimed agenda of "exporting our revolution to the whole world" in order "to establish an Islamic state worldwide."

It is hard to imagine a better bargaining position. Indeed, other regimes in the region are paying attention, with a Saudi analyst recently noting, "We are learning from our enemies now how to treat the United States." Obama's recent decision to cut aid to Egypt will only reinforce their conclusions: countries like Egypt that have no genocidal inclinations and pose no threat to the U.S. will not curry favour in Western eyes simply because they are fighting al-Qaeda and other groups hostile to the West. In contrast, the Islamic Republic of Iran, which seeks nuclear muscle and the destruction of the West, is a candidate for embrace despite its status as the world's most prolific sponsor of terrorism.

The Obama-Rouhani formula, then, for aspiring tyrannies can be summed up with the words of Charles Krauthammer: "spin the centrifuges while spinning the West." Create leverage through nuclear endeavour, feign interest in negotiation, moderate the genocidal innuendo and patiently wait for the handshake and offer that no tyrant will want to refuse.

Loading Slideshow...
  • Raul Castro, President Of Cuba

    In this image from TV, US President Barack Obama shakes hands with Cuban President Raul Castro at the FNB Stadium in Soweto, South Africa, in the rain for a memorial service for former South African President Nelson Mandela, Tuesday Dec. 10, 2013. (AP Photo/SABC Pool)

  • Cristina Fernandez, President Of Argentina

    President Barack Obama meets with Argentina's President Cristina Fernandez at the G20 Summit in Cannes, France, Friday, Nov. 4, 2011. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

  • Hamid Karzai, President Of Afghanistan

    Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai (L) and U.S. President Barack Obama shake hands after a joint news conference in the East Room of the White House on January 11, 2013 in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

  • Julia Gillard, Prime Minister Of Australia

    U.S. President Barack Obama (L) and Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard shake hands during a bilateral meeting at Parliament House in Canberra on November 16, 2011. (JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Dilma Rousseff, President Of Brazil

    U.S. President Barack Obama (L) shakes hands with Brazilian President Dilma Vana Rousseff (R) during a joint press conference at Palacio do Planalto in Brasilia on March 19, 2011. (JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images) <em><strong>CORRECTION:</strong> The title of this slide initially referred to Dilma Rousseff as the prime minister of Brazil. In fact, she is the president of Brazil.</em>

  • Hun Sen, Prime Minister Of Cambodia

    U.S. President Barack Obama (L) and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen (R) reach out to shake hands on arrival at the Peace Palace for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and US summit in Phnom Penh on November 19, 2012 following the 21st ASEAN Leaders Summit. (ROMEO GACAD/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Stephen Harper, Prime Minister Of Canada

    President Barack Obama shakes hands with Canada’s Prime Minister Stephen Harper in bilateral meeting during the G20 Summit, Tuesday, June 19, 2012, in Los Cabos, Mexico. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

  • Sebastian Pinera, President Of Chile

    U.S. President Barack Obama greets Chilean President Sebastian Pinera before a dinner at the Washington Convention Center during the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, on April 12, 2010. (JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Xi Jinping, President Of China

    U.S. President Barack Obama shakes hands with then-Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping during meetings in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, February 14, 2012. (SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Juan Manuel Santos, President Of Colombia

    Colombia President Juan Manuel Santos (R) and U.S. President Barack Obama shake hands during a joint press conference in the framework of the VI Summit of the Americas at Casa de Huespedes in Cartagena, Colombia, on April 15, 2012. (SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Laura Chinchilla, President Of Costa Rica

    President Barack Obama and Costa Rica's President Laura Chinchilla shake hands at the end of their joint press conference in San Jose, Costa Rica, Friday, May 3, 2013. (AP Photo/Moises Castillo)

  • Francois Hollande, President Of France

    President Barack Obama shakes hands with French President Francois Hollande on arrival for the G8 Summit Friday, May 18, 2012 at Camp David, Md. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

  • Angela Merkel, Chancellor Of Germany

    U.S. President Barack Obama (R) shakes hands with German Chancellor Angela Merkel looks after a joint press conference following their meeting in the East Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on June 7, 2011. (JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Giorgio Napolitano, President Of Italy

    President Barack Obama shakes hands with Italian President Giorgio Napolitano during their meeting in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, Friday, Feb. 15, 2013. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

  • Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister Of Japan

    President Barack Obama shakes hands with Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, Friday, Feb. 22, 2013. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

  • Park Geu-Hye, President Of South Korea

    President Barack Obama and South Korea President Park Geun-Hye shake hands at the conclusion of their joint news conference in the East Room of the White House in Washington, Tuesday, May 7, 2013. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

  • Enrique Pena Nieto, President Of Mexico

    President Barack Obama, left, and Mexico President Enrique Pena Nieto, right, shake hands following a news conference at the Palacio Nacional in Mexico City, Thursday, May 2, 2013. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

  • Benigno Aquino, President Of The Philippines

    U.S. President Barack Obama (R) shakes hands with President Benigno Aquino of the Philippines in the Oval Office at the White House on June 8, 2012 in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch-Pool/Getty Images)

  • Donald Tusk, Prime Minister Of Poland

    Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk (R) shake hands with U.S. President Barack Obama (L) during their meeting in Warsaw on May 28, 2011. (JANEK SKARZYNSKI/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, Amir Of Qatar

    President Barack Obama shakes hands with Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani of Qatar during their meeting in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, Tuesday, April 23, 2013. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

  • Traian Basescu, President Of Romania

    U.S. President Barack Obama (R) greets Romania's President Traian Basescu before a dinner at the US Ambassador's residence in Prague on April 8, 2010. (JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Vladimir Putin, President Of Russia

    President Barack Obama shakes hands with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in a bilateral meeting during the G20 Summit, Monday, June 18, 2012, in Los Cabos, Mexico. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

  • Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, King Of Saudi Arabia

    U.S. President Barack Obama shakes hands with King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia during meetings in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, June 29, 2010. (SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Lee Hsien Loong, Prime Minister Of Singapore

    President Barack Obama shakes hands with with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong during their meeting in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, Tuesday, April, 2, 2013. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

  • Fredrik Reinfeldt, Prime Minister Of Sweden

    U.S. President Barack Obama shakes hands with Sweden's Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt (L) during meetings in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, November 2, 2009. (SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Yingluck Shinawatra, Prime Minister Of Thailand

    U.S. President Barack Obama, left, and Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra shake hands following the conclusion of their joint news conference at Thai Government House in Bangkok, Thailand, Sunday, Nov. 18, 2012. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

  • Abdullah II, King Of Jordan

    FILE - In this March 22, 2013, file photo, President Barack Obama, left, and Jordan's King Abdullah II, right, shake hands following their joint new conference at the King's Palace in Amman, Jordan. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais, File)

  • Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Prime Minister Of Turkey

    U.S. President Barack Obama (R) shakes hands with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan after their bilateral meeting in Seoul on March 25, 2012 on the eve of the 2012 Seoul Nuclear Security Summit. (JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images)

  • David Cameron, Prime Minister Of Great Britain

    President Barack Obama shakes hands with Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron on arrival for the G8 Summit Friday, May 18, 2012 at Camp David, Md. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

  • Hugo Chavez, Former President Of Venezuela

    Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez (R) gives a book, 'The Open Veins of Latin America' of Uruguayan writer Eduardo Galeano to US President Barack Obama (L) during a multilateral meeting to begin during the Summit of the Americas at the Hyatt Regency in Port of Spain, Trinidad April 18, 2009. (JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images)

 

Follow Sheryl Saperia on Twitter: www.twitter.com/sherylsap

FOLLOW CANADA POLITICS