Leading indicators have gained more prominence in the post-crisis period, if only because the on-again, off-again economy has intensified scrutiny of shifts in momentum.If we are going to be months, or more realistically, years in unwinding extraordinary policy measures, which leading indicators can we rely on to point the way for the economy?
During recessions, American sentiment is typically volatile. One of the most remarkable recent developments in the world economy is the change in U.S. sentiment. After three failed attempts, the Conference Board Index of Consumer Confidence has finally and convincingly popped back into the "normal" zone.
Instinctively, everybody knows that job creation is something really important, both economically and socially. In a way, we should "thank" the job creators. But who is it, exactly, that we must thank? We might be tempted to believe that it is politicians.
A second term for Obama might be good for Canada. Obama's departure from Bush policies regarding Canada has been driven by electoral considerations, and in a second term, Obama might be less inclined to make such concessions to his base at Canada's expense.