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Todd Herron

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The Presidential Race isn't as Close as You Think

Posted: 10/18/2012 12:12 pm

Is the U.S. election really a neck-and-neck race, like the pollsters in the mainstream media keep reporting? Not really.

It would be close, if the popular vote indeed decided the Presidency, but it's the Electoral College that determines who wins. In almost every state, it's winner-take-all for the state's Electoral College votes. That's why Obama and Romney don't bother to campaign in California, New York, or Texas; the outcomes there are "givens." The swing-states are where the action is -- and this time around, Ohio is the "swingyest" of them all.

As of today, Obama has a solid lock on 247 electoral votes from the blue states, according to Electoral-Vote.com. If Obama wins Ohio's 18 electoral votes, his total comes up to 265 -- and he needs 270 to win. To clinch a second term, he needs to win only one of Nevada (6), Iowa (6), Colorado (9), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), or Florida (29). Romney would have to win all of them without Ohio.

Obama is polling ahead of Romney in Ohio. Adding to this, the U.S. Supreme Court this week refused to block early voting in Ohio, which means roughly 100,000 people -- the majority of whom are Democrats -- will be able to vote the weekend before election day.

It's only fitting that Ohio save Obama. After all, Obama saved Ohio with the bailout of the auto industry. Ohio's many auto parts manufacturing companies owe a lot to him.

FiveThirtyEight.com takes these Electoral College votes into account and gives Obama 66 per cent chance of winning -- a far cry from the 50:50 foot race we've been seeing in the popular vote polls.

The media will still portray this as closer race than it is, if only for the suspenseful theatre. Admittedly a lot can happen between now and election day, but the Electoral College polls are starting to solidify around an Obama Presidency for a second term.

Loading Slideshow...
  • US President Barack Obama (R) and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney (L) participate in the second presidential debate, the only held in a townhall format, at the David Mack Center at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, October 16, 2012, moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley. AFP PHOTO / Saul LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)

  • President Barack Obama and Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney participate in the second presidential debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y., Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

  • Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, left, addresses President Barack Obama during the second presidential debate at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012, in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/Pool-Shannon Stapleton)

  • President Barack Obama, left, speaks to Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney during the second presidential debate at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012, in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/Pool-Win McNamee)

  • Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama speak during the second presidential debate at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012, in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/David Goldman)

  • President Barack Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney speak during the second presidential debate at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012, in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/David Goldman)

  • HEMPSTEAD, NY - OCTOBER 16: Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney (L) speaks as U.S. President Barack Obama (R) listens during a town hall style debate at Hofstra University October 16, 2012 in Hempstead, New York. During the second of three presidential debates, the candidates fielded questions from audience members on a wide variety of issues. (Photo by Shannon Stapleton-Pool/Getty Images)

  • US President Barack Obama (R) and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney (L) participate in the second presidential debate, the only held in a townhall format, at the David Mack Center at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, October 16, 2012, moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley. AFP PHOTO / Saul LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)

  • US President Barack Obama (R) and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney (L) participate in the second presidential debate, the only held in a townhall format, at the David Mack Center at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, October 16, 2012, moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley. AFP PHOTO / Saul LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney (rear) and US President Barack Obama debate on October 16, 2012 during the second of three presidential debates at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. AFP PHOTO / Stan HONDA (Photo credit should read STAN HONDA/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney (L) and US President Barack Obama debate on October 16, 2012 during the second of three presidential debates at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. AFP PHOTO / TIMOTHY A. CLARY (Photo credit should read TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/Getty Images)

  • US President Barack Obama and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney both speak at the same time during the second presidential debate October 16, 2012 at the David Mack Center at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. AFP PHOTO/Mandel NGAN (Photo credit should read MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images)

  • US President Barack Obama and Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney debate on October 16, 2012 at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. Undecided voters asked questions during a town hall format. AFP PHOTO/Stan HONDA (Photo credit should read STAN HONDA/AFP/Getty Images)

  • US President Barack Obama (R) and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney (L) participate in the second presidential debate, the only held in a townhall format, at the David Mack Center at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, October 16, 2012, moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley. AFP PHOTO / Saul LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)

  • US President Barack Obama (R) and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney (L) participate in the second presidential debate, the only held in a townhall format, at the David Mack Center at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, October 16, 2012, moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley. AFP PHOTO / TIMOTHY A. CLARY (Photo credit should read TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/Getty Images)

  • US President Barack Obama (R) and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney (L) participate in the second presidential debate, the only held in a townhall format, at the David Mack Center at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, October 16, 2012, moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley. AFP PHOTO / Saul LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)



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  • US-VOTE-2012-DEBATE

    US President Barack Obama (L) Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney (R) participate in the second presidential debate at the David Mack Center at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, October 16, 2012, moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley. AFP PHOTO / Saul LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Mitt Romney, Barack Obama

    Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama shake hands after the second presidential debate at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012, in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

  • Mitt Romney, Barack Obama

    Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama shake hands after the second presidential debate at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012, in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

  • President Barack Obama shakes hands with Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney at the end of the second presidential debate at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012, in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/David Goldman)

  • US-VOTE-2012-DEBATE

    US President Barack Obama (L) and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney (R) participate in the second presidential debate, the only held in a townhall format, at the David Mack Center at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, October 16, 2012, moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley. AFP PHOTO / Saul LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)

  • US-VOTE-2012-DEBATE

    US President Barack Obama (R) and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney (L) participate in the second presidential debate, the only held in a townhall format, at the David Mack Center at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, October 16, 2012, moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley. AFP PHOTO / TIMOTHY A. CLARY (Photo credit should read TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/Getty Images)

  • US-VOTE-2012-DEBATE

    US President Barack Obama (R) and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney (L) participate in the second presidential debate, the only held in a townhall format, at the David Mack Center at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, October 16, 2012, moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley. AFP PHOTO / Saul LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)

  • MItt Romney, Barack Obama

    President Barack Obama and Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney speak during the second presidential debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y., Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

  • MItt Romney, Barack Obama

    President Barack Obama and Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney participate in the second presidential debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y., Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

  • US-VOTE-2012-DEBATE

    US President Barack Obama (R) and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney (L) participate in the second presidential debate, the only held in a townhall format, at the David Mack Center at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, October 16, 2012, moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley. AFP PHOTO / TIMOTHY A. CLARY (Photo credit should read TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/Getty Images)

  • US-VOTE-2012-DEBATE

    US President Barack Obama (L) and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney (R) participate in the second presidential debate, the only held in a townhall format, at the David Mack Center at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, October 16, 2012, moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley. AFP PHOTO / Saul LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney listens as President Barack Obama speaks during the second presidential debate at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012, in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/David Goldman)

  • Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama speak during the second presidential debate at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012, in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/David Goldman)

  • Barack Obama, Mitt Romney

    President Barack Obama, right, listens as Republican presidential candidate former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney answers a question from a member of the audience during the second presidential debate at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012 in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)

  • MItt Romney, Barack Obama

    President Barack Obama and Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney participate in the second presidential debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y., Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

  • President Barack Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney speak during the second presidential debate at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012, in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/David Goldman)

  • MItt Romney, Barack Obama

    President Barack Obama and Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney participate in the second presidential debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y., Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

  • Mitt Romney, Barack Obama

    Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama spar during the second presidential debate at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012, in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

  • President Barack Obama, left, and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney address members of the audience during the second presidential debate at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012, in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/Pool-Michael Reynolds)

  • US-VOTE-2012-DEBATE

    US President Barack Obama and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney both speak at the same time during the second presidential debate October 16, 2012 at the David Mack Center at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. AFP PHOTO/Mandel NGAN (Photo credit should read MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images)

  • US-VOTE-2012-DEBATE

    CNN's Candy Crowley (C) conducts the second presidential debate with US President Barack Obama (R) and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney (L) at the David Mack Center at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, October 16, 2012. AFP PHOTO / Saul LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)

  • US-VOTE-2012-DEBATE

    US President Barack Obama (R) and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney (L) participate in the second presidential debate, the only held in a townhall format, at the David Mack Center at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, October 16, 2012, moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley. AFP PHOTO / Saul LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)

  • US-VOTE-2012-DEBATE

    US President Barack Obama (R) and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney (L) participate in the second presidential debate, the only held in a townhall format, at the David Mack Center at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, October 16, 2012, moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley. AFP PHOTO / TIMOTHY A. CLARY (Photo credit should read TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/Getty Images)

  • MItt Romney, Barack Obama

    President Barack Obama speaks as Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney listens during the second presidential debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y., Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

  • President Barack Obama listens as Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney speaks during the second presidential debate at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012, in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

  • Mitt Romney, Barack Obama

    Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and and President Barack Obama answer a question during the second presidential debate at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012, in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

  • President Barack Obama addresses members of the audience during the second presidential debate with Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012, in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/Pool-Shannon Stapleton)

  • US-VOTE-2012-DEBATE

    US President Barack Obama (R) and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney (L) participate in the second presidential debate, the only held in a townhall format, at the David Mack Center at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, October 16, 2012, moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley. AFP PHOTO / Stan HONDA (Photo credit should read STAN HONDA/AFP/Getty Images)

  • MItt Romney, Barack Obama

    President Barack Obama speaks as Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney listens during the second presidential debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y., Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

  • A member of the audience asks President Barack Obama a question during the second presidential debate with Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012, in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/Pool-Win McNamee)

  • President Barack Obama, left, speaks to Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney during the second presidential debate at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012, in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/Pool-Win McNamee)

  • US-VOTE-2012-DEBATE

    Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney and US President Barack Obama debate on October 16, 2012 during the second of three presidential debates at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. AFP PHOTO / Stan HONDA (Photo credit should read STAN HONDA/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Moderator Candy Crowley, center, addresses President Barack Obama, left, and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney during the second presidential debate at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012, in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/Pool-Michael Reynolds)

  • US-VOTE-2012-DEBATE

    Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney (L) and US President Barack Obama debate on October 16, 2012 during the second of three presidential debates at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. AFP PHOTO / TIMOTHY A. CLARY (Photo credit should read TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/Getty Images)

  • US-VOTE-2012-DEBATE

    Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney and US President Barack Obama debate on October 16, 2012 during the second of three presidential debates at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. AFP PHOTO / Stan HONDA (Photo credit should read STAN HONDA/AFP/Getty Images)

  • US-VOTE-2012-DEBATE

    US President Barack Obama (R) and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney (L) participate in the second presidential debate, the only held in a townhall format, at the David Mack Center at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, October 16, 2012, moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley. AFP PHOTO / Stan HONDA (Photo credit should read STAN HONDA/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama speak during the second presidential debate at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012, in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

  • Barack Obama, Mitt Romney

    Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney answers a question as President Barack Obama listens during the second presidential debate at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012, in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/Pool, Rick Wilking)

  • Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, left, addresses President Barack Obama during the second presidential debate at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012, in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/Pool-Shannon Stapleton)

  • Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney listens as President Barack Obama speaks during the second presidential debate at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012, in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

  • President Barack Obama addresses members of the audience during the second presidential debate with Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012, in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/Pool-Shannon Stapleton)

  • US-VOTE-2012-DEBATE

    Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney (rear) and US President Barack Obama debate on October 16, 2012 during the second of three presidential debates at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. AFP PHOTO / Stan HONDA (Photo credit should read STAN HONDA/AFP/Getty Images)

  • US-VOTE-2012-DEBATE

    US President Barack Obama (R) and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney (L) participate in the second presidential debate, the only held in a townhall format, at the David Mack Center at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, October 16, 2012, moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley. AFP PHOTO / Saul LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)

  • US-VOTE-2012-DEBATE

    US President Barack Obama (R) and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney (L) participate in the second presidential debate, the only held in a townhall format, at the David Mack Center at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, October 16, 2012, moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley. AFP PHOTO / Saul LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)

  • US-VOTE-2012-DEBATE

    US President Barack Obama (R) and Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney argue during the second presidential debate, the only held in a townhall format, at the David Mack Center at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, October 16, 2012, moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley. AFP PHOTO / Saul LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)

  • MItt Romney, Barack Obama

    President Barack Obama and Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney participate in the second presidential debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y., Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

  • Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, left, listens as President Barack Obama addresses members of the audience during the second presidential debate at Hofstra University, Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012, in Hempstead, N.Y. (AP Photo/Pool-Michael Reynolds)

  • US-VOTE-2012-DEBATE

    US President Barack Obama (R) and Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney argue during the second presidential debate, the only held in a townhall format, at the David Mack Center at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, October 16, 2012, moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley. AFP PHOTO / TIMOTHY CLARY (Photo credit should read TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/Getty Images)

  • US-VOTE-2012-DEBATE

    Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney (L) listens to US President Barack Obama on October 16, 2012 during the second of three presidential debates at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. AFP PHOTO / TIMOTHY A. CLARY (Photo credit should read TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/Getty Images)

  • US-VOTE-2012-DEBATE

    US President Barack Obama (R) and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney (L) participate in the second presidential debate, the only held in a townhall format, at the David Mack Center at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, October 16, 2012, moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley. AFP PHOTO / Stan HONDA (Photo credit should read STAN HONDA/AFP/Getty Images)

  • US-VOTE-2012-DEBATE

    Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney (L) and US President Barack Obama debate on October 16, 2012 during the second of three presidential debates at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. AFP PHOTO / TIMOTHY A. CLARY (Photo credit should read TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/Getty Images)

 

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