The New York Times' polling website, FiveThirtyEight.com, is showing the odds of Obama winning the Presidency at 85 per cent. This number has been going up dramatically for the last couple of days as the polling numbers are starting solidify around a must-have Electoral College win for Obama and a nice-to-have win in the popular vote.
This is not lost on conservative bloggers who see the inevitable on Tuesday: an Obama second term. And in the modern world of reporting news before it happens, conservative bloggers are already writing Mitt Romney's political obituary. Erick Erickson, ultra-conservative blogger for redstate.com in a scathing editorial referred to Romney as "unprincipled" and the "silly putty of politicians." He writes:
"I've been reading the 200 pages of single spaced opposition research from the John McCain campaign on Mitt Romney. There is no issue I can find on which Mitt Romney has not taken both sides. He is neither liberal nor conservative. He is simply unprincipled. The man has no core beliefs other than in himself.
Mitt Romney ... is a man devoid of any principles other than getting himself elected. As much as the American public does not like Barack Obama, they loath a man so fueled with ambition that he will say or do anything to get himself elected. Mitt Romney is that man."
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Here's a look at the issues he and other Canada-U.S. watchers feel will land on the big desk in the Oval Office in the months and years to come. <strong><em>With files from CBC</em></strong>
Wilkins puts energy policy at the top of the list of Canadian issues facing the next U.S. president. "It is a huge part of our trade relationship and obviously the controversial issue right now is the approval of the Keystone pipeline," said Wilkins. "I think that has the most immediate and profound impact on the relationship of the two countries. It can mean thousands of jobs in the U.S. It can mean more Canadian energy flowing to the U.S. and would give us a little more energy independence from some of the other countries that we depend on that don't necessarily like us, like Venezuela." Romney has said he will approve Keystone XL, a 1,900-kilometre project that would carry oilsands crude from Alberta to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Obama initially welcomed TransCanada Corp.'s $7.6-billion plan, but put it temporarily on hold late last year, asking the State Department to take another look at a new route that would bypass the environmentally sensitive Sandhills area in Nebraska. Keystone XL has faced significant opposition from environmentalists, who both oppose oilsands development and view the pipeline itself as an ecological disaster waiting to happen. Don Abelson, director of the Canada-U.S. Institute at Western University in London, Ont., says energy policy is a critical cross-border issue that's not going to go away. "Both Obama and Romney are very well aware of what's going on in Western Canada and how the United States could benefit from that, so there's been a lot of discussion about North American energy independence and lessening their dependence on the Middle East."
In his view, Abelson says "first and foremost" among the Canadian issues facing the next U.S. president is "our concern about trade and the border." "It's always a concern that not only the next president but the next Congress looks favourably upon the importance of the trade relationship between the two countries and that as committed as both countries are to maintaining a secure border, that they don't lose sight of the importance of allowing for the unfettered movement of goods and services." In the past four years, there have been some protectionist tendencies on the U.S. side, including Buy America clauses in bills, one of which, restricting public works projects to U.S.-made steel and manufactured goods, was passed by Congress "I think there was some expectation that when Barack Obama became president in 2008 that he would not be as committed to thickening the border," says Abelson. But "clearly he has been." Wilkins, a Republican, also feels that Buy America clauses are protectionist and not helpful. "I'm hopeful that they won't come up again, but I think if you have an Obama administration the likelihood is higher than if you have a Romney administration."
Late last year, Canada and the U.S. signed a new perimeter security and trade agreement that aimed to make everything from travel to cross-border business easier. But the deal came with negotiations to ease American security concerns and means the two countries will share information about who enters and exits the country. Canada will adopt two U.S. screening measures: an electronic travel authorization for visitors who don't need visas to travel to Canada, and a system to deny boarding to inadmissible passengers before they get on the plane. Security at the border is another "huge" Canadian issue for the next U.S. president, but Abelson doesn't think it will necessarily become harder for people crossing from one country to another. "I think we'll continue to see co-operation between both countries in terms of sharing intelligence and information," he says, adding that more is also going to have to be done when it comes to border infrastructure such as bridges and roads.
Abelson says Canada should be concerned about the foreign policy direction of the next U.S. administration. "I don't think Canadians have the appetite or the stomach for going back to a time where the United States was putting pressure on us to become involved in military conflicts," he says, adding "the issue that's going to be on the agenda of the next president will be Iran and possibly Syria. "From a Canadian perspective, we want to be very careful that regardless of who's occupying the Oval Office, that we are not under pressure or put under intense pressure to become involved in future military conflicts unless our direct national security interests are at stake." And then there's China. Canada's navy played a key role this summer in the world's largest international naval exercise, which has as a main worry the possibility of a less-than-friendly China. The U.S. was a big player in the exercise, and it came about six months after Obama signalled a foreign policy "pivot," pointing to the Pacific rather than keeping the longstanding focus on the Middle East and Europe. With Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government also signalling great interest in selling resources like oil to China, Canada could find itself in a rather sensitive spot reconciling those sometimes differing perspectives.
Gary Doer, Canada's ambassador to the U.S., told reporters earlier this month that one of the most important issues for Canada in the U.S. election will be whether the winner can avoid sending the U.S. economy over the so-called "fiscal cliff." Obama and the Republican-controlled Congress have been deadlocked over the U.S. budget and face a Jan. 1 deadline for a deal. If there isn't one, a series of pre-set spending cuts and tax increases kick in and could have the effect of slowing an already fragile U.S. economic recovery. Doer wouldn't say which candidate or party he feels is best equipped to break the budget impasse in Congress. But no matter who wins an election that in the U.S. has focused primarily on the economy, Abelson sees a huge challenge getting the agreement needed on Capital Hill to sort out the looming budget and debt questions. "I agree with Gary Doer that of course the economy is the most important issue, but as we saw during the discussion over the debt crisis, how bad do things have to become for both sides to work together?" Every country in the world, Canada included, is affected by how the U.S. economy plays out, suggests Abelson. "Our trade relationship, the spillover effect into our own country, of course, that's one of the reasons we need to pay very close attention to what's going on in Washington."
Romney's Etch-a-Sketch campaign strategy very nearly worked. While "liberal" heads exploded its strident inconsistency, what was more shocking was polls showed that, for nearly half of Americans, this was OK!
It is unlikely that this unprincipled strategy will work again. Obama's battle for the White House has been primarily a battle against an ostensibly slow recovery, hampered by a gridlocked congress. In reality, the recovery has been remarkably good considering how deep the hole was. BusinessInsider.com shows the historical fact that economies perform better under the Democrats. By 2016, the economy will be in full steam again and a new Democratic nominee (Hillary Clinton 2.0?) will be crowing about Obama's success and arguing why it should continue.
In the meantime, conservatism in the USA will face an unprecedented crisis. It is no longer a proud animal; it is a fearful one. Unrelenting demographics shifts will continue to make the USA a majority-minority nation -- a nation where there is no majority race. We can expect an inevitable xenophobic backlash from fearful conservatives: calls from the right for more restrictive immigrant policies and talk of making English the national language. (Americans should look north to Canada before going down this rocky road!) They will be shouting at the rain as this backlash will run counter to America's evolving demographics.
The conservatives will split -- the Fearful Conservatives on one side, the Embracing Conservatives on the other. Embracing Conservatives will embrace the demographic change, distance themselves from religious demagoguery, and return to the conservative credos of individual freedom, self-reliance, and fiscal prudence. If they let the politics of fear take over and the only principle remaining for the conservative movement is power-for-power's-sake, then today it's Romney's political obituary we are writing and tomorrow it will the obituary of the conservative movement itself.
U.S. President Barack Obama waves to supporters following his victory speech on election night in Chicago, Illinois on November 6, 2012. (JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images)
Nov. 4, 2008: U.S. president-elect Barack Obama waves at his supporters during his election night victory rally at Grant Park in Chicago. (JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images)
In this Nov. 3, 2004 file photo, President George W. Bush and first lady Laura Bush salute and wave during an election victory rally at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in Washington. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak, File)
U.S. Republican presidential candidate and Texas Governor George W. Bush casts his vote in Austin, Texas on November 7, 2000. (PAUL RICHARDS/AFP/Getty Images)
President Bill Clinton, wife Hillary and daughter Chelsea wave to supporters in front of the Old State House during an election night celebration in Little Rock, Ark. on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 1996. (AP Photo/David Longstreath)
Bill Clinton and Al Gore celebrate in Little Rock, Arkansas after winning in a landslide election on November 3, 1992. (AP Photo)
President-elect George Bush and his family celebrate his victory on November 8,1988 at the Brown Convention Center in Houston. (WALT FRERCK/AFP/Getty Images) <em><strong>CORRECTION:</strong> An earlier version of this slide was titled "George W. Bush." It has been fixed.</em>
President Ronald Reagan gives a thumbs-up to supporters at the Century Plaza Hotel in Los Angeles as he celebrates his re-election, Nov. 6, 1984, with first lady Nancy Reagan at his side. (AP Photo/File)
President-elect Ronald Reagan and wife Nancy wave to well-wishers on Tuesday, Nov. 4, 1980 at Century Plaza Hotel in Los Angeles after his election victory. (AP Photo)
Democratic presidential candidate Jimmy Carter embraces his wife Rosalynn after receiving the final news of his victory in the national general election on November 2, 1976. (Photo by Hulton Archive/Getty Images)
U.S. President Richard M. Nixon meets at Camp David, Maryland, on November 13, 1972 to discuss the Vietnam situation with Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger (L) and Maj. Gen. Alexander M. Haig Jr.(R), Deputy Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs. (Photo by AFP PHOTO/NATIONAL ARCHIVE/Getty Images)
President-elect Richard M. Nixon and his wife, Pat, were a picture of joy at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel in New York, Nov. 6, 1968, as he thanked campaign workers. At left are David Eisenhower, Julie Nixon's fiance, Julie and her sister Tricia at center. (AP Photo)
President Lyndon Johnson proves he's a pretty good cowhand as he puts his horse, Lady B, through the paces of rounding up a Hereford yearling on his LBJ Ranch near Stonewall, Texas, on November 4, 1964. (AP Photo/Bill Hudson)
Caroline Kennedy peeps over the shoulder of her father, Senator John F. Kennedy, as he gave her a piggy-back ride November 9, 1960 at the Kennedy residence in Hyannis Port, Mass. It was the first chance president-elect Kennedy had to relax with his daughter in weeks. (AP Photo)
President Dwight D. Eisenhower and Vice President Richard Nixon salute cheering workers and Republicans at GOP election headquarters in Washington, November 7, 1956, after Adlai Stevenson conceded. (AP Photo)
President-elect Dwight Eisenhower and first lady-elect Mamie Eisenhower wave to the cheering, singing crowd in the Grand Ballroom of the Hotel Commodore in New York City on Nov. 5, 1952 after Gov. Adlai Stevenson conceded defeat. (AP Photo/Matty Zimmerman)
U.S. President Harry S. Truman holds up an Election Day edition of the Chicago Daily Tribune, which, based on early results, mistakenly announced "Dewey Defeats Truman" on November 4, 1948. The president told well-wishers at St. Louis' Union Station, "That is one for the books!" (AP Photo/Byron Rollins)
President Franklin Roosevelt greets a young admirer as he sits outside his home in Hyde Park, N.Y., on election night, November 7, 1944. Behind him stands his daughter, Mrs. Anna Roosevelt Boettinger and the first lady, Eleanor Roosevelt. (AP Photo)
American President Franklin Delano Roosevelt (1882 - 1945) speaking to a crowd of 25,000 at Madison Square Garden in New York on Nov. 8, 1940, before his sweeping re-election for a third term. (Photo by Fox Photos/Getty Images)
The Republican Governor of Kansas and presidential candidate, Alfred Landon (1887 - 1987) greeting the American President Franklin Delano Roosevelt (1882 - 1945) (seated) prior to the presidential elections. Future United States President Harry S. Truman can been seen in the background. (Photo by Keystone/Getty Images)
Governor Franklin D. Roosevelt of New York at his Hyde Park, N.Y. home November 6, 1932, seen at the conclusion of the arduous months of campaigning following his presidential nomination in Chicago. (AP Photo)
President-elect Herbert Hoover is seated at a table with wife, Lou, and joined by other family members on Nov. 9, 1928. Standing from left: Allan Hoover; son; Margaret Hoover, with husband, Herbert Hoover, Jr.,at right. Peggy Ann Hoover, daughter of Herbert Hoover Jr., sits with her grandmother. (AP Photo)
U.S. President Calvin Coolidge and first lady Grace Coolidge are shown with their dog at the White House portico in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 5, 1924. (AP Photo)
Senator Warren Harding, with wife Florence and his father George, shown on Aug. 27, 1920. (AP Photo)
Surrounded by crowds, President Woodrow Wilson throws out the first ball at a baseball game in Washington in this 1916 photo. (AP Photo)
Woodrow Wilson (1856 - 1924), the future American president, casts his vote while Governor of New Jersey, on Nov. 14, 1912. (Photo by Topical Press Agency/Getty Images)
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