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Werner Patels

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Alberta - A Wealth of Oil, but No Money

Posted: 12/27/2012 6:58 pm

Here and there, some people voice their support for an independent Western Canada, or independent Alberta. But seeing how difficult it will be for Alberta to sell its oil, it makes you wonder how useful, or even realistic, such a scenario is.

The Keystone XL pipeline will probably be built one day, but the Northern Gateway line to the coast of British Columbia will in all likelihood remain just that, a pipedream (no pun intended).

Alberta has had tremendous difficulties selling and shipping its bitumen overseas, and as a result the precious resource has been given away at a discount, with potentially billions of dollars in revenue that are now lost forever to Canadians, businesses and government.

If this keeps up, it might be better to leave the oil in the ground until a solution can be found - although that would mean that Alberta's wasteful government would be left with almost no substantial revenue stream. Alberta would quickly become Canada's worst-performing province, complete with deficits and debt on the scale of Greece or Portugal.

I, too, believe that the Northern Gateway pipeline is dead. It won't happen. And if Keystone ever gets flowing, it won't be the perfect solution either, as oil would 'merely' be sold to Americans, just as before. However, in light of America's growing independence in terms of oil and gas, and the prospect of America's economy sliding into yet another recession and prolonged economic woes, our neighbours to the south aren't exactly our best customers anymore.

Even though the Chinese have now successfully gained a foothold in Alberta's oil sands, the big question remains: how are they going to get the oil to China?

This is where Alberta's oil wealth will eventually stop to generate jobs and money. Without efficient infrastructure and the means to get the oil to countries with the biggest demand, Albertans might just as well start learning to be subsistence farmers.

Unfortunately, Alberta's economy is a monoculture. Despite my warnings for almost ten years, nothing has been done to diversify the economy. There is still very little a person can do in Alberta unless they work in the oil and gas sector or one of the services closely associated with it.

It's not Ottawa or Ontario that stands in the way of Alberta's success, nor will the rants of Thomas Mulcair or Justin Trudeau have any noticeable impact on the well-being of Albertans. An independent Alberta would face the same problems as now, and even worse, because British Columbia next door would be even less inclined to open its territory to a pipeline from the "Republic of Alberta".

Unless something changes drastically, such as new technology, Albertan oil will, at best, flow to the U.S. and to other regions in Canada. At the very least, this would ensure that Canada could look to a future of secure oil supply for domestic consumption without having to rely on imports from iffy or rogue nations.

But that, of course, won't produce the kind of wealth investors, including the Chinese, have been dreaming of.

 

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Here and there, some people voice their support for an independent Western Canada, or independent Alberta. But seeing how difficult it will be for Alberta to sell its oil, it makes you wonder how usef...
Here and there, some people voice their support for an independent Western Canada, or independent Alberta. But seeing how difficult it will be for Alberta to sell its oil, it makes you wonder how usef...
 
 
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05:43 PM on 01/06/2013
Alison Redford is driving Alberta into the ground. The sooner she resigns, the better. All she cares about is lining her pockets (and those of her family and friends) as soon as possible. Alberta deserves better.
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Werner Patels
01:26 PM on 01/07/2013
Can't argue with that at all.
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BigLittle
01:10 AM on 01/05/2013
I spent a couple of years as a kid on an RCAF station in Alta. when they still had such places left over from the war. They added the Ft to Ft Mac sometime after the war I think, and back then there were no oil sands or tar sands, they were called bituminous sands on the maps I collected in those my amateur geologist days. Alta. is a great place, and sure they've got a grudge. They're stuck with all this bitumen, its making Canada a lot of money, and could make more...but times have changed. Bitumen, like beauty, is only skin deep. It is not the most popular petroleum product on the market, and US demand will soon be supplied domestically, they say. Albertans deserve better than to be a one-party petrostate, they deserve a diversified and sustainable economy, but boom and bust resource exploitation is the hand they've been dealt.
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Werner Patels
01:27 PM on 01/07/2013
Absolutely, Albertans deserve better.
08:42 AM on 01/04/2013
Alberta can simply refine that oil and ship the final products by rail to Thunder Bay for export.
Obvously this would be of less benefit to China as much of the refined products would end up in the EU.
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Werner Patels
03:44 PM on 01/04/2013
I think that, or something similar, is what they're planning to do now... won't solve the problem of having to sell their oil at a major discount, though.
10:20 PM on 01/02/2013
I agree that Alberta needs to diversify it's economy since oil and gas provide a quarter of it's GDP however the PC have been saying they are going to do that for years and haven't. It is too easy to go with what you have got and when you have foreign investors eager to invest in the oil resources why pump tax payer incentives into some thing totally new. Look at the billions that Ontario has wasted on their green energy FIT program. However I remain optimistic that eventually a way will be found to get the oil to a coast. As far as Alberta becoming the worst performing province that is impossible since Quebec and Ontario have the lead with their $21,000 and $17,000 per person debt and provincial governments that are increasing the red ink every year with policies that discourage any sort of investment.
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Werner Patels
04:22 PM on 01/03/2013
Alberta, sadly, is quickly catching up with ON and QC. Let's not forget that Redford in AB is now bordering on a $7 billion deficit after just one year (give or take). ON, by comparison, took almost ten years of McGuinty to reach $14 billion. Plus, AB government has already started the process for taking up debt and eventually drowning the province in it.
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Peter Burgess1
03:25 PM on 01/02/2013
What's hilarious about this article is it addresses an illusion.

"Here and there, some people voice their support for an independent Western Canada, or independent Alberta. "

Where?

There is no measurable "Alberta separation" movement. A handful of people that's it. This article attempts to address this "movement" as though it were even a fraction of the Quebec separation movement. It isn't.
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Werner Patels
05:47 PM on 01/02/2013
The number of people may be small today (although their number has shrivelled only in the last five years or so), but they're still quite "loud" and attempt to shape provincial and federal politics based on their (misguided) objectives. In other words, while their numbers are small, but oftentimes bigger than support for sovereignty in Quebec these days, they must still be taken seriously, because, let's not forget, the way Alberta's political system is structured (and has been for decades), a minority of people get to call the shots there.
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Peter Burgess1
06:25 PM on 01/02/2013
"but oftentimes bigger than support for sovereignty in Quebec these days"

Really. Support for Quebec separation has never been blow 35%. Can you point to a time/study/poll when support for Alberta separation was even in the 20% area?

We disagree. I believe you are basing huge contentions on exaggerated evidence.
12:58 PM on 01/03/2013
Im curious to your quote....."attempt to shape poiltics based on their misguided objectives". What exactly do you perceive are these misguided objectives and how are they shaping federal politics as I assume you are referring to the Wildrose Party as the provincial catalyst of Alberta seperation.