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The Infallible Trudeau is a Media-Driven Myth

Posted: 09/28/2012 12:56 pm

And so it begins.

Allow me to quote Postmedia's Michael Den Tandt's comments written on September 27:

"[Justin Trudeau] will win the leadership handily and seek to follow in his father's footsteps. It may be a lively contest; much ink will be spilled; but the outcome is not in doubt. That's because of Trudeau's name, but also his personal popularity, fluency in both official languages, youth, oratorical skills, social media following and looks. Once he's in, it's over."


The only qualifier was that it was possible that Trudeau would "self-immolate." Although this is very much a possibility, I see no reason why the bar for a Trudeau defeat is set so high. Somehow, the media have already decided that the race for the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership is over before it has even started.

One need not look any farther than the following headline offered to lead off an article that immediately followed Bob Rae's decision not to run for leader: "Bob Rae won't run for Liberal leadership as all eyes now turn to Justin Trudeau."

Does anyone remember this one? "Broadbent endorsement means NDP leadership race could be over." This headline was offered by Postmedia's Stephen Maher after NDP leadership candidate Brian Topp launched his campaign with former NDP leader Ed Broadbent's support on day one. It turns out that didn't work out too well for him.

The supposed front runner doesn't always win. Stéphane Dion pulled of the most miraculous of upsets to become federal Liberal leader in 2006. Dalton McGuinty became leader of the Ontario Liberals on the fifth ballot in 1996, despite finishing fourth on both the first and second ballots.

Justin Trudeau -- who is expected to announce his candidacy on October 2 -- has entered the race unbelievably early. It isn't set to begin officially until November and the actual vote takes place in April. That gives him lots of time to lose momentum, whether he succumbs to gaffes or not. Yet for some reason, the Canadian media left, right and centre have decided that the race will be a coronation without even having access to a comprehensive list of declared candidates.

The one issue most often cited by the media as being Trudeau's decisive advantage is his army of Twitter followers. How Twitter followers -- who may or may not support you in any way -- necessarily translate into votes on convention day has yet to be explained.

If one is to have an honest conversation with involved grassroots Liberals, one would find just as much antipathy -- if not more -- than sympathy toward a potential Trudeau leadership campaign. What the media are doing here, however, is priming future and present Liberal supporters -- who are not actively involved in the party -- toward supporting Trudeau.

And why not? A successful Trudeau candidacy is bound to generate headlines, the very business the media are in.

I have noted in the past that talk of merging the Liberal Party with the NDP is overwhelmingly media-driven. The case here is no different.

Let there be no mistake: Important elements within the media -- backed by polls based on a non-realized eventuality -- are attempting to create reality rather than report it. A 2002 poll that claimed that a Paul Martin-led Liberal Party would coast to 63 per cent support in the ensuing election should be enough to entice Liberals and non-partisan analysts alike to exercise caution.

Regardless of the spread before the Super Bowl, they still have to play the game. There's a reason for that.

The Grits need a stimulating, debate-filled, open leadership race. Such a contest would represent another important step on the road to rebuilding. Whether this race is up for grabs or not should be dependent upon the views of Liberals, not the media.

 

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And so it begins. Allow me to quote Postmedia's Michael Den Tandt's comments written on September 27: "[Justin Trudeau] will win the leadership handily and seek to follow in his father's footsteps.
And so it begins. Allow me to quote Postmedia's Michael Den Tandt's comments written on September 27: "[Justin Trudeau] will win the leadership handily and seek to follow in his father's footsteps.
 
 
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02:48 PM on 09/30/2012
Yes, and this constant stream of meaningless drivel is a sign of journalists with no initiative at all.
06:53 PM on 09/29/2012
While I agree that Trudeau is not a shoe-in for Liberal leader and that a contested leadership race is vital, it is obvious you have an axe to grind with him.

First you do a hatchet job on him in the Globe and Mail and now here. Jealously is not a pretty thing.

It would be a lot easier to accept your arguments objectively if there wasn't this pathetic envy corroding them.
11:35 AM on 09/29/2012
I really don't have any times for Trudeau. He's a surfer dude. If Twiiter followers qualifies you to be prime minister, then my money is on Justin Beiber who's smarter and appeals to more attractive demographic. Furthermore, Beiber has a lot more Twitter fans and could destroy Trudeau in any debate.

My beef is with another very annoying kid. Zack Paikin in his early twenties and seems to think he knows a great deal about everything. Tell me, Zach, where would you be without your last name? Instead of having space given to you in places like this to spill your know it all vitriol, you'd be cleaning dishes to pay for school like most of us.
09:34 PM on 09/28/2012
How depressing.

Another appealingly attractive male, like Ignatieff, with no discernible new ideas or vision for the future, and just a media bunch with the hots for the next new flavour and a fresh face to discuss.

Beyond depressing, actually.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ProgressiveCDN
A Progressive Moderate
10:18 AM on 10/04/2012
lol. I've never met a woman who found Iggy attractive, and surely not charismatic.

Apples & oranges.
wetcoastm
Free Speech As Dictated By Our Sponsors
08:22 PM on 09/28/2012
If you are supposed to be a Liberal Party activist you shouldn't be bashing any of your potential candidates. You may be planning to back a different horse but considering the lack of coverage the Liberal Party has had in the last year, any coverage of its candidates should be a good thing. And if you want to support other candidates why don't you use this space to introduce them to us?

If you just want to fume about a media preference do it in private.
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canobserv
09:28 AM on 09/29/2012
I wonder if any of the "so-called" liberal bloggers on this site are Liberal at all??
05:19 PM on 09/28/2012
Mr. Paikin obviously has an axe to grind against Justin. I'm not sure why that is or what is at the bottom of it, but there will be ample time to assess Justin's suitability for the office he seeks. I happen to think he's right, but not for the flimsy arguments he presents here. For that, unfortunately, readers should direct their attention to Gerald Caplan's very well argued column on the Globe and Mail's website. Justin is a figment of the imagination, and nothing more. For Canadians and Liberals that will actually vote for the new Liberal leader and vote in the next election, they will I hope take seriously their responsibility to pick a leader who is more than a lovely flock of hair and a surname to their repitiore or attributes.
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04:03 PM on 09/28/2012
Well Mr. Paikin, when you're right you're right. I think it is a sign of our times. Information overload and no time to form an opinion, so people take one.The media know this and they also know that once people take a side they seldom change. So if a poll has 33% support for each party anything anti-one party will get a 66% approval rating.On the other hand mention Stephen Harper's name in association with anything and people rail against it. But none of them make a difference in the outcomes because there is just too much railing without fact. This part the media doesn't understand, the backlash. They have actually painted the PM into a position of underdog by bullying him incessently. All to say you are very right. Justin isn't PET and he has entered the race way, way too early to survive on popularity and a smile. Being impatient will be expensive to overcome.
Hafingnetonne
A few words
02:55 PM on 09/28/2012
Never had a yet not-officially announced candidate be so weak, shallow, void a of any substance and so little prepared. It is Louis XVI revisited. He will end up guillotined by his own partisans. He should admit having erred and that he is not a candidate after all just losing face and earning his stripes like everybody else.
10:10 AM on 09/29/2012
Thank you, Thank you!!!!

Simply having the Trudeau last name and being good-looking is not enough for this voter.

WHAT ARE HIS IDEAS FOR THE FUTURE... Puleeze, someone...
Hafingnetonne
A few words
03:34 PM on 09/29/2012
He has none - just his smile. Justin Bieber is more coherent.
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ProgressiveCDN
A Progressive Moderate
02:47 PM on 09/28/2012
I think more than policy specifics, Justin is going to run on a non-ideological platform. He'll be similar to the Obama line "no red America, no blue America...", instead he'll argue that there are times to be conservative and times to be progressive but Canada's history has always been pragmatic and based on common sense and academic research.
01:23 PM on 09/28/2012
Sorry, why would grassroots liberals have antipathy towards Trudeau as a leader? I suppose it is always easier to throw out a speculative assessment than actually back it up with any examples or justifications for said argument. This sounds like a curiously "liberal media" sweeping statement, that apparently encompasses the entire spectrum of political views. I'd never be one to suggest the media should ever be trusted outright, but given that the very site you work for perpetuates this apparent myth as any, I can't help but wonder if this is just meant to create an alternative argument to perpetuate the interest in readership on both sides.
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Natural Dog
I'll need another pint
01:13 PM on 09/28/2012
Your point is taken, but your case is weak. While I understand your overall assertion is 'he hasn't won it yet', unless JT gets hit by a meteorite he will win this race.

You just don't want to get caught up in the enthusiasm in case it comes off the rails.
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ProgressiveCDN
A Progressive Moderate
02:46 PM on 09/28/2012
As someone with ties to the LPC, I can see where Zach is coming from.. I sense some real generational friction, and a lot of the "party elders" are very turned off by this kind of agism they perceive. Frankly, if the supporter category didn't exist there would be a real hot debate within the party, but I for one am glad that there is a supporter category. With the media drumbeat, I agree that JT does have this in the bag unless a Garneau or maybe even Mark Carney could give him a good run for his money.