The Probe Research poll, done for the Winnipeg Free Press and CTV, suggests the Tories lead with the support of 42 per cent of decided voters.
That number is down slightly from similar Probe polls done three and six months ago.
The New Democrats scored 30 per cent support among decided voters, demonstrating little change in recent months.
The Liberals, who got just seven per cent of the vote in the 2011 election, were supported by 20 per cent in the new poll, up from 16 per cent in the last survey.
The NDP is showing strength in Winnipeg — home to 31 of the 57 legislature seats — where the survey suggests they are in a statistical tie with the Tories.
The random telephone survey involved 1,009 residents between Sept. 18 and Oct. 1. The provincewide results are considered accurate within plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error for the Winnipeg results is plus or minus four per cent.
Seventeen per cent of respondents were undecided.
The NDP government has taken a beating in the polls since raising the provincial sales tax in 2013. While the Probe polls, done every three months, suggest much of the NDP has drained away, the Tories do not seem to be benefiting.
The new survey suggest the Tories are no further ahead now than they were on election day.
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