06/05/2015 03:26 EDT | Updated 06/05/2015 03:59 EDT

Federal NDP Still Lead Tories, Liberals, Poll Suggests

"Liberals should be very concerned. But the worst news here may be for the Conservatives."


If Canadian politics were a game of Jacks, NDP leader Thomas Mulcair just swiped everyone’s pieces, a new poll suggests.

“New Democrats should be jubilant. Liberals should be very concerned. But the worst news here may be for the Conservatives,” warned EKOS president Frank Graves in a report published Friday in iPolitics.

Support for Mulcair’s party jumped nearly two points in two weeks to 31.3 per cent. Conservative support edged up slightly to 29.2 per cent while the Liberals hit a slump, their number slipping to 23.9 per cent, while Greens trail at 7.4 per cent.

Graves notes a number of factors may have galvanized people’s perceptions of the federal NDP, including fervor around Alberta’s “Orange Crush” and disappointment over Trudeau’s support for the Tories’ contentious anti-terrorism act Bill C-51.

“The NDP now holds a commanding lead in Quebec and enjoys double the support of any of the other three contenders,” said Graves.

This latest set of data marks a considerable shift from numbers released by EKOS last month suggesting a three-way tie among the major federal parties.

According to Graves, the fate of the NDP and Liberals are “inextricably” tied because “they tap a shared pool of promiscuous progressive voters” — continually re-dividing the anti-Conservative vote.

For the prime minister, the poll suggests voters are increasingly turning a cold shoulder to him after a “brief warming trend” last fall.

“Harper’s personal numbers have been in retreat and are now tracking near historical lows,” wrote Graves.

As for Mulcair, he’s “on top of the popularity heap,” said Graves, describing his numbers to be “pretty much the reverse” of the prime minister’s.

The poll was conducted among 2,204 Canadians between May 27 and June 2 via interactive voice response. The sample has a margin of error of 2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Canada’s next federal elections is tentatively scheduled for Oct. 19.

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