TORONTO — The possibility of neither the Conservatives nor the Liberals winning the Oct. 19 federal election could be a negative for equity markets, although other factors are far more important, according to a commentary issued by CIBC (TSX:CM). The note, dated Sunday and written by Ian de Verteuil, managing director and head of portfolio strategy and technical research at CIBC World Markets, predicted the recent decline in equity markets would continue until the end of the year. Among other things, de Verteuil noted that interest rates have again started to decline, emerging markets have been volatile and equities have fallen. "In our opinion, until we get some clear signs that deflation is not back on the table, and until there is evidence of stronger global economic recovery, equities will remain weak," he said. "The Canadian situation is complicated by a lack of domestic support for Canadian equities, continued pressure on the economy from weaker commodity prices and a federal election that could result in a party other than the Conservatives or Liberals in power." When asked about his mention of the election, de Verteuil said it wasn't a critique of one party's capabilities or policies over another's. "This is a comment on how investors tend to have a short-term reaction to change. Election uncertainty may be a factor in equity markets but far more significant issues are weak commodity prices and low demand for Canadian equities," he said in an email.
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