08/31/2015 12:39 EDT | Updated 08/31/2016 05:59 EDT

Oil Industry Is In For Another Year Of Pain, Scotiabank Says

CALGARY — Oil companies are in for at least another year of pain, according to Scotiabank's latest commodity price index.

The report by Patricia Mohr, a vice-president and commodity market specialist at Scotiabank, says crude prices are expected to stay below US$50 a barrel for the next 12 months.

Mohr sees some recovery to around US$55 a barrel by the end of next year.

She says U.S. supplies of crude haven't been slowing, and a key factor to watch will be whether Texas producers stay resilient with crude in the US$40 to US$45 a barrel range.

Meanwhile, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is increasing its output to build market share in Asia as Saudi Arabia braces for a long battle with U.S. shale producers, Russia and Iran.

On the demand side of the equation, Mohr notes that the China growth story has been called into question, but cautions against overreacting to the current jitters.