The survey by Mainstreet Research for Postmedia indicates the Tories are well out in front with 46 per cent support, the NDP are in second place at 21, and the Liberals and Greens are tied at seven per cent.
One in five respondents was undecided.
The Liberal drop has been sharp — previous Mainstreet polls over the last few months had the party at or above 15 per cent, nipping at the heels of the NDP.
Manitoba Tory Leader Brian Pallister answers reporters' questions. The Manitoba Progressive Conservatives are soaring in advance of Tuesday's provincial election. (Photo: CP)
The poll was issued after a series of gaffes by the Liberals, including the loss of some candidates who had not filled out forms properly.
The random automated telephone survey of 1,800 Manitobans was conducted Thursday, and is considered accurate within plus or minus 2.3 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
"What looked like a simple majority last week now looks like a super majority as the PCs gain almost five points ... among decided and leaning voters," Mainstreet president Quito Maggi said in a release.
Liberal collapse benefiting NDP, Tories
The Tories have been leading in opinion polls since the NDP government raised the provincial sales tax in 2013. Selinger faced an internal revolt led by five cabinet ministers who said the party needed a new leader to revive its fortunes, but Selinger fought back and survived.
The Mainstreet poll suggests the Liberal collapse has benefited both the NDP and Tories. The Tories also continue to lead in seat-rich Winnipeg — their weak spot in the last election where they won only four of 31 seats.
The poll indicates Tory support in the city is now at 41 per cent compared to 25 per cent for the NDP. The Green Party scored 10 per cent, The Liberals seven, and 17 per cent of respondents were undecided.