11/09/2016 01:59 EST | Updated 11/09/2016 07:49 EST

Canada Stands To Win Big From A Trump Victory. And Lose, Too.

We could win on energy. We could lose on trade and real estate.

A Donald Trump presidency. What would that mean for Canada's economy?

Economists and analysts with major Canadian banks, and others, offer a few clues.

Keystone XL

A demonstrator, celebrating US President Barack Obama's blocking of the Keystone XL oil pipeline, holds up a sign during a rally in front of the White House in Washington, D.C. on Nov. 6, 2015. (Photo: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/Getty Images)

Trump has said that he would ask TransCanada to "renew its permit application" for the Keystone XL pipeline after President Barack Obama rejected it last year.

Approving Keystone would mean that more Canadian crude could reach the U.S. and "spur more investment in the oilsands," according to Royal Bank of Canada analyst Matthew Barasch.


Trump has pledged to reduce the number of U.S. tax brackets from seven to three and drop the top marginal tax rate from 39.6 per cent to 33 per cent. He also wants to cut corporate tax rates from 35 per cent to 15 per cent.

Those cuts could boost the U.S. economy, which would have flow-through effects to Canada's economy, Barasch said.

But it would also make Canadian tax rates less competitive, creating an average gap of approximately 13 per cent. Marginal tax rates in every province would be higher than in every U.S. state.

Real estate

Condos in Whistler, B.C. (Photo: Stockstudiox/Getty Images)

The value of recreational properties in Canada could take a hit if the U.S. greenback falls as a result of Trump's election, Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper told MoneySense.

That could affect properties in areas such as Whistler, B.C., Muskoka, Ont. and Canmore, Alta.


Stock information at the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). (Photo: Mark Blinch/Reuters)

A Trump win could initially drag down stocks (it already did on Tuesday night) before creating a "net positive" effect for Canadian investors down the road, Barasch said.

The TSX could gain from higher long-term interest rates and higher oil prices, he added.

That said, stocks could also be hurt by trade barriers and a disadvantage when it comes to marginal tax rates.


Cranes and cargo shipping containers at the Port of Vancouver, BC, Canada on Nov. 14, 2014. (Photo: Kim Rogerson/Getty Images)

Trade has been one of Trump's biggest talking points on the campaign trail. He has pledged to withdraw the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which hasn't yet been ratified. Clinton also opposes it.

Trump has also promised to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), a deal to which Canada, the U.S. and Mexico are parties, in order to "get a better deal for our workers."

Renegotiating NAFTA could lead to lots of confusion for Canada, as products from Mexico and the Great White North serve as "parts of the manufacturing value chain" for U.S. businesses, and "disentangling" them could be difficult.

It is, however, unlikely that NAFTA will be scrapped completely, according to TD economists Beata Caranci and Leslie Preston.

In any case, the U.S. would have to give Canada six months notice that it plans on withdrawing from the agreement. But tough trade talk on the campaign trail usually has more bark than its bite, they added.

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