If you thought this summer was unbearably hot, it's time to buckle up because the next few years aren't going to be any better.
Global ground and sea temperatures are going to continue to be abnormally high for the remainder of 2018, all the way to at least 2022, European researchers reported, after using a new forecasting technique to analyze future temperatures.
The researchers projected a 58 per cent change that 2018 to 2022 would be warmer than usual — making the time frame shorter and only looking from 2018 to 2021 increases that to 72 per cent.
Accurately predicted summer 2018
The study was finished before the summer of 2018 but was quite clearly spot on when it came to the hotter than normal summer in many parts of the globe.
The reason for this increase is being attributed to an increase in global heat events and a reduction in intense cold events, Science Daily explained.
"The coming warm period is associated with an increased likelihood of intense to extreme temperatures," the study notes.
This doesn't mean every part of the planet is going to feel the heat the same way. The numbers are global average projections, but not every region will necessarily feel the effects of an extreme heat event.
Cooling phase coming to an end
The study also notes that man-made climate change is not a steady process, and is variable from year to year.
"Global warming is not a smooth, monotonous process," researchers wrote.
In fact, the Earth's natural cycles have been in a cooling phase, according to CBC News, despite the past four years being some of the hottest on records. The new shift will further increase global temperatures.
To further test the new forecasting tool's accuracy, the researchers used it to predict temperatures from 1998-2014, and the projections matched actual patterns, down to the global warming "hiatus".
Beyond 2022, the climate is less clear as the new forecasting model loses accuracy making projections that far ahead, but a German research initiative suggests warmer than average temperatures may continue to 2026.
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