The Brexit just happened last week and everyone wants to know if the world is now coming to an end. There are TONS of slick, suit wearing, talking heads on TV explaining what it means for everyone and apparently they don't know. No one probably knows for a few years. Everyone has called for a HUGE economic crash but after two days we have started to bounce back. So what do we know and how will it actually effect your wallet and life? This is how it will effect millennials from everything from travel, your mortgage rate to your future retirement.
1. U.S. Dollar Will Stay High: It was expected that interest rates were all going to be on the rise in the U.S. for sure and possibly Canada and that isn't going to be the case anymore. It is now more likely that the U.S. will lower interest rates for two reasons.
a) to make sure that international stock markets are calmed (because they are crapping their pants now) and
b) to lower the U.S. dollar compared to the rest of the world currencies. If the U.S. dollar is high the Europe, China and Canada have to pay more for Chevy's and Apple Pie and no one really wants to pay more for that when the rest of the world's currencies are low like the Canadian Dollar, Euro, and now the British Pound.
2. Canadian Mortgage Rates: As per above, it was expected that interest rates would go up a week ago but down now and Canada should follow suit with the U.S. That means that mortgage rates will be stay low and and house prices in Toronto and Vancouver will continue to go higher.
3. The British Pound: The pound will go down and so will the euro. It'll take some time to figure out what the new terms to that agreement will be and so the the British economy will go through some uncertainty as firms decide to go or stay in London and England. It'll be a great time to check out the British Isles however. The British Pound is at a 35 year low to the U.S. dollar. Load up the back pack!
4. The Euro: Now that Britain has decided to separate, the euro is at risk of other nations following suit. Not everyone is happy with the bureaucracy and regulations that come with the European Union. Greece was a great example of how they are at the will of Germany and the larger European members will. In the past when companies have had two much debt to GDP they could devalue their currencies and get out of debt faster but being part of the euro has tied their hands. Most of Europe isn't fairing that well either. Italian banks are getting liquidity injections and Spanish and Portuguese banks will probably be next. Other than the northern countries, the rest of Europe isn't doing very well financially and exiting the EU could be desirable for many existing nations. More cheap travel!
5. Stock Markets Will Work Itself Out: These mini crisis happen monthly now -- the stock market is a drama queen! Remember Greece, flash crashes, and slowing China that made the market wig out? Norway has the exact same agreement that Britain will want and is a much bigger player. Just watch how in sic months this blip is a non event too. The reduction in interest rates will keep home prices and the stock market inching higher and every investor should look to the future and be a investor vs. a trader. We should all enjoy cheap European travel, high home prices in urban hubs and low interest rates for the next foreseeable future if you are a globalization winner.
Globalization Winners and Losers: It is most evident that there are globalization winners and losers in the global economy. You either are a "Leave" and "Trump" voter or an upper middle class citizen who has stocks, salaries and home prices on the rise with low interest rates. Do what you can to get on the globalization train because it is leaving a lot of people at the station without any clear plan how to rectify it. A vote for Brexit or Trump sure aren't the solution. It'll take strong minds and a New "New Deal" kind of thinking to spread the wealth and avoid further backlash.
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