I'm not the first and surely won't be the last to predict the end of 40+ years of PC rule in Alberta. Their obituary has been written at least twice before; in 1993 when Ralph Klein rescued the PCs in the "miracle on the prairies" and most recently last year when Wildrose drowned in a lake of fire to allow Alison Redford to continue Alberta's Progressive Conservative dynasty.
But based on what I've been hearing lately it seems only a matter of time before the PC Party is no more. And by that I mean wiped off the political map, not just punted to the opposition benches for a few years.
As a political animal I spend as much time as I can talking with my neighbours no matter where they live in the province. When I can't meet with people in person I connect however I can, and social media certainly helps.
I had one such contact out of the blue last week. I won't mention the name of the person I talked with, where in the province they are from or any other identifying characteristics but what I can say is this person works in the public sector. He/she is very active in the PC Party and is worried that Alberta is on the wrong track. He/she doesn't believe Wildrose is the answer but is unwilling to speak out publicly for fear of reprisal and perhaps even losing his/her livelihood.
This is not the only conversation like this I've had and in many ways is unsurprising; in a province where one party has ruled for all but six months of my life it's to be expected (albeit unacceptable) that falling out of line with the party might be career limiting. I've spoken with many people both inside and outside the PC machine and many are afraid of speaking their mind. They also agree that the Alberta they want is under threat and all want an alternative.
As an active PC constituency president said to me; every dynasty has its end. The question is not when, but how.
I believe it is possible to address the management problems in our public service without compromising service delivery or the bottom line. I believe we can navigate the environmental, market access and perception challenges facing our energy industry without compromising our competitiveness or prosperity while also creating conditions amenable to the entrepreneurs who will help ensure our long term prosperity.
This means we need to find new sources of revenue which, to be blunt, means a small but reasonable tax increase. My personal feeling is that Albertans will never accept a sales tax and I think we need to consider progressive income taxes and perhaps even reinstating healthcare premiums. I understand the academic arguments for a consumption tax which could potentially be sold in conjunction with cuts to personal and business taxes but my suspicion is Albertans will never go for it. Regardless, revenue must be addressed as part of a coherent and systematic plan to make Alberta a global leader in healthcare and education for generations to come.
I believe Albertans are willing to pay for world-class services if they feel these are being delivered efficiently. The polling data I've seen bears this out.
Alberta needs a credible, moderate party to emerge to govern the next generation of Albertans. Without doubt my personal bias is for the Alberta Party but regardless of whether this is the answer or not, politics in Alberta needs a change of culture, attitude and end result.
And what will become of the PC Party? The only thing holding this big tent together is power and once power is gone it will be like dropping a handful of marbles on the floor; everyone will scatter and there won't be anything left. Let me state for the record I believe the PC Party will go the way of Social Credit; within 10 years they will be no more. You heard it here first.
I recognize this is a bold prediction with a healthy dose of wishful thinking but based on the mood of the Albertans I've talked with, I don't believe any leader of the PC Party can rescue them now. The question becomes who will replace the Progressive Conservative dynasty and what sort of Alberta we want to live in.
Three years is a long time in politics and the fun is just beginning.