Another year, the same groundhogs pulling the same schtick.
As they did last year, Canada’s two prized weather-predicting groundhogs — Nova Scotia’s Shubenacadie Sam and Ontario’s Wiarton Willie — came out with conflicting reports.
Sam, who’s always the first to put down a forecast, emerged from his burrow and was greeted by his own shadow.
Willie on the other hand, paraded outside his burrow, no shadow to be seen.
According to the time-old tradition, this means that Sam is predicting six more weeks of cold weather, while Willie’s laying down that springtime is coming soon.
Who to believe? Well, it’s time to get to the bottom of this. If there’s anything these little critters can’t burrow away from it’s cold, hard numbers.
HuffPost Canada cross-referenced the groundhogs’ predictions with recorded temperatures from Environment Canada.
2019 predictions
This time last year, both groundhogs made the same predictions they made this year. Sam called called for a long winter, and Willie, gave the more popular “early spring” option.
Comparing the groundhogs’ predictions to all of Canada would be a bit unfair. They’re not certified meteorologists. But did they at least get it right in their own neighbourhoods.
Let’s start with Ontario’s Wiarton Willie, who as his name suggests is from Wiarton, Ont.
Six weeks from Feb. 2 is Mar. 15 — so by Willie’s forecast the area should have had warmer temperatures by then. On Mar. 15, 2019 the town of Wiarton had an average temperature of 1.2 C. That seems relatively warmer, but it didn’t last. According to Environment Canada, the month averaged at a temperature of -3.7 C. On the last day of March 2019, it dipped down to -5.1 C.
If the weather remained above freezing, there would be a case to make for Willie’s forecasting prowess. But as the data shows, last year he simply didn’t get it right.
Did Sam do any better? According to Environment Canada, the closest weather station to his native Shubenacadie, N.S. is Halifax. On March 15, six weeks from Sam’s prediction of a long winter, the temperature was 3.1 C. But the average temperature for the month was -1.3 C and temperatures dipped down to an average of -5.9 C. That requires at least a jacket and maybe even some gloves, so definitely winter-like conditions.
Here’s to you Sam. If Canada’s supply of excellent, trained meteorologists ever ceases to exist for some reason, at least the country will be comforted by the thought that there’s a groundhog out there they can sort of rely on.