Three major polls predicted a tight race, but the CAQ beat the Liberals by a landslide. What gives?
The certainty of Clinton success is brought into question when we accept the fact that Clinton and Trump were virtually tied in polls towards the end of May. In what has been possibly the worst month a presumptive nominee could have, we see Trump still within five per cent of Clinton nationally, and still very competitive in key battleground states.
"I think it was a pretty good night and it's important for the industry to have a win."
Reminder: All 338 seats are currently up for grabs.
Projections are only as good as the polls they are based on.
The 2015 federal election is awash with so-called information: left, right and centre. Partisans can find a poll to match almost any desired electoral outcome. This election is being defined by national trendlines. It's not healthy for democracy. The number of minutes wasted and columns spilled in earnest of polling results that are literally worth as much as the media paid for them: nothing.
Something happened in the first week of October.
For Trudeau to have a shot, he must win that battleground.
Grant's slight lead is with those in the 18-34 age category.
"The fact is that we had a three-way race and we still do, it’s just that two parties may be heading in opposite directions right now."