With the kick-off to Ontario's 40th general election on Oct. 6, The Huffington Post Canada kicks off its coverage with lively, ongoing debates between three of the smartest and most plugged-in politicos in the province: John Duffy arguing for the McGuinty camp; Jason Lietaer (@jasonlietaer) in Hudak's corner; and Heather Fraser (@ottawafraser) duking it out for Horwath. Check in with HuffingtonPost.ca every weekday for the freshest and best election coverage on the web.
John Duffy (Liberal):
Tomorrow night's debate looms large. With only a little more than a week to go in a very tight race, the inherent potential for drama is quite high. That's good news for Mr. Hudak and Ms. Horwath, as my sense is that each of them needs to ignite somewhat tomorrow evening. Here's my guesses as to what each of the leaders is aiming at as they prepare for a very important night.
Ms. Horwath is probably looking for the "boys, boys" moment. In this scenario, a hyper-partisan exchange between Mr. McGuinty and Mr. Hudak is broken by her leaning back from the lectern, smiling and shaking her head, and saying that the exchange illustrates a broken political culture which she can fix with a new, Layton-esque politics of positive change. In order to get that chiding moment, she needs two things. First, her opponents have to mix it up at a level that sets up her play. If they don't, she's just moving the puck around, not shooting at the net. Second thing Ms. Horwath will need is warmth, a lot more of it than she showed in the Northern debate with Mr. Hudak. It was strange in the debate how nervous she seemed in what was an essentially agreeable situation -- two opposition politicians tag-teaming an absent government. I trust she's had a relaxing weekend to build up her ease and confidence for Tuesday night.
Mr. Hudak's challenges are more complex. Polls show the PC campaign drifting slowly downward towards the conservative core support level. While the fabled turnout discipline of the PC electorate is a big plus, it's not enough to win at these levels. Mr. Hudak needs to increase his support relative to Mr. McGuinty's. One way to do that is to support Ms. Horwath's efforts to shake loose Liberal votes. The other way is to take on Mr. McGuinty directly. Problems abound with each course, however. Get too close to Ms. Horwath and you risk furthering a play that the Liberals already have in motion: seeking soft NDP supporters who are worried their party is playing footsie with the PCs. Unload directly on Mr. McGuinty and the younger, less experienced Mr. Hudak could come across as a small figure nipping at a larger, more dignified one -- no way to win votes.
That leaves Premier McGuinty. My guess is that his biggest challenges won't come from the opposition politicians. It's easy to see from what's above that a very tame debate could be the outcome as Mr. Hudak seeks to avoid chippiness and Ms. Horwath plays the disappointed, kindly adult in the room. Not much clash in that mix, and Mr. McGuinty has little reason or temperment to go roughing up either of the others. Instead, I expect his toughest moments will come via some very pointed questions from some disappointed voters. In addition, I expect all three will face some grilling on the candour of their platforms in light of the worsening economic outlook.
All of this will make for a very tight and interesting performance. In the end, though, I think the tightest squeeze will be on Mr. Hudak. I suspect he'll be the one to take a chance and try to score. At this point in the campaign, it's going to be tough for him to make headway without a big night tomorrow.
Jason Lietaer (PC):
I think John has absolutely nailed the NDP's objectives, responses and core strategy in the debate: show a fresh face that rises above the fighting of the Liberals and Conservatives. I have long predicted that Andrea will present herself as a breath of fresh air both in this campaign and in the debate. So far, she has had mixed success.
Andrea has her work cut out for her. She has to maintain the sunny disposition she is putting forward, while also proving that she can be premier. It's a tough balance. Jack was able to do it in the federal debate and election because of years of practice. He was relentlessly and fearlessly partisan -- but he was so effective because he did it with a smile and with a kind face and a chuckle.
Every time I turn around, I read a story about how the Liberals are copying the Harper campaign. I assume from John's missive that that strategy will continue into the debate. One problem: Harper was eight points up on his opponent and clearly seen as the best leader by most Canadians, even by many who had no intention of voting for him. Mr. McGuinty does not enjoy the same advantages. Although the Liberals and McGuinty are resilient, both the Tories and the Liberals are still short of a majority. The debate could well shake something loose.
That's the unwritten story here: Dalton might have to take some risks over the next few days to try to win this thing. He's playing it pretty safe and I think that will continue tomorrow night. I'm not sure that's going to work with Ontario voters, many of whom will be seeing Hudak and Horwath for the first time and many may like what they see from either or both.
One thing is for certain. This debate and the couple days that follow it will set the tone for the run to the end. Usually there are two or three weeks between the debate and E-day. Not this time. If there is a stumble, it will be difficult, but not impossible, to recover. The days following the 1999 debate are a case in point. A young Dalton McGuinty was decimated in the debate by then-premier Mike Harris. McGuinty dusted himself off and finished strong. It was at that moment, if we are honest with ourselves, that many of us knew for sure that Mr. McGuinty would be premier some day. Anything can happen.
The momentum heading into this crucial day is not on the Liberals' side. This power plant fiasco is taking a toll. I went out to the site yesterday expecting to see a field. Instead, I saw a half-built power plant. How much has it cost so far? Mr. McGuinty won't say. How much to cancel? Ditto. This is the kind of back of the envelope decision that looks good late Friday night but you can't get your arms around when the questions start coming in on Saturday morning. And they never stop.
Between the Oakville and Mississauga power plants, the total cost of these projects is somewhere between $1.5 and $2 billion. That's a lot to pay for some empty holes. It could have funded about seven hospitals. If you were ever wondering why your power bills are so high, just take a drive through the western GTA. The evidence is sitting underneath the bulldozers and beside the cranes.
Heather Fraser (NDP):
Tomorrow's debate is a great opportunity for voters to hear directly from the leaders and for the leader's to make their pitch directly to voters. Too bad there aren't more of them.
The challenge for all the leaders is to get past the cameras and the political score cards and actually connect with voters. Andrea Horwath has warmth in spades, especially when you contrast that with Mr. Hudak and Mr. McGuinty. And if Ms. Horwath comes off as the adult in the room I won't be surprised or bothered because being premier requires adult behaviour. On the other hand, I also don't happen to think that offering a critical analysis of the other parties means that you are "going negative." Offering contrasts is what choice means and Horwath's challenge -- and I believe her strength -- will be to offer positive solutions along with the critique.
I do appreciate your candor John when it comes to where the tough questions will come from. The reason why there are so many "soft Liberal voters" is that people aren't comfortable with the status quo. Ontarians don't want to see the same shrill debates they've seen before. They want someone that they can trust to do something different. If Mr. McGuinty sits back and tries to look premier-like he risks looking disengaged and that likely won't cut it.
As for Hudak, he'll need to convince voters that he can offer the change they seek. So far, he's come up short. His challenge will be to make people comfortable with him -- despite his coziness with the likes of hard-line conservatives like Toronto Mayor Rob Ford. The attempt to reintroduce Hudak during the second week has had some success but I wonder if it isn't a bit too late.
By the way John, every time you propose that the Tories and the NDP are "playing footsies" I have to laugh. A good idea is a good idea. When two parties on the opposite side of the political spectrum agree on something it's not a sin, it's probably an idea worth looking at. Voters want us to put aside partisan, entrenched positions to find positive solutions. So let's put away the conspiracy theories.
John Duffy, political strategist for the Ontario Liberal election campaign, is also the founder of StrategyCorp and author of author of 'Fights of Our Lives: Elections, Leadership and the Making of Canada.' Jason Lietaer, the Hudak campaign's communications director, is also the vice president of public affairs of Enterprise Canada. Heather Fraser, representing the NDP, is the director of communications for the Canadian Union of Public Employees.