Parliament Opens: With Majority Government, Harper Has Nothing To Lose

Stephen Harper

The Huffington Post Canada   First Posted: 06/02/11 08:35 AM ET Updated: 08/02/11 06:12 AM ET

It's Stephen Harper's day.

As Canada's 41st Parliament opens in Ottawa today, the prime minister enjoys the first majority government in seven years.

Without the monkey of a looming election on his back, Harper can reshape the country in his party's image, though he must build bridges to an isolated Quebec.

Much more is at stake for the opposition parties. NDP Leader Jack Layton has to speak for Quebec without alienating his traditional base. The Liberals must fight to remain relevant; the Bloc Quebecois and Green Party must fight to simply survive.

While Canadians adjust to the new reality in Ottawa, all federal parties in the House of Commons will have to shift from the constant political bickering of a minority parliament to the long-term policy-making and political maneuvering of a majority situation.

But with the transformation of Canada's political landscape comes new challenges each of the parties will have to face between now and the next election, scheduled to take place in October 2015.


THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY

With the exception of a few cabinet ministers who held various portfolios at the provincial level, the Conservative Party is heading into the completely uncharted territory of a majority government. Ever since Stephen Harper led the party formed by the merger of the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives into its first election in 2004, the Tories have existed in a minority parliament.

The prospect of defeat and a new election around every corner galvanized the party behind its leader, and sharpened the political instincts of its strategists and key players. When they were first installed in power in 2006, policies were designed as much for the governing of the country as they were for winning votes in the next campaign.

With virtually unfettered power, the Conservatives can now reshape the country in their image. They have already moved quickly on some of their key election promises, such as the reform of the Senate and the abolition of the per-vote federal party subsidy. More unpopular measures, such as cuts to the public service, can be gotten out of the way now, with the next election still four years away.

But with the New Democratic breakthrough in Quebec, the Conservatives are more than ever an English Canadian party. In fact, it has been almost a century since Quebec has had so little representation in a majority government. With the Parti Québécois poised to take power in Quebec City by 2013, the Conservatives will have to find a way to bridge the gap between their massive majority outside of Quebec and the people who live inside the province.

THE NDP

Similarly, the biggest challenge faced by the New Democrats comes out of Quebec. With the exception of a few gains primarily in the GTA, the New Democrats won the title of the Official Opposition by way of Quebec, where the party took 59 of their 103 seats. Without their meteoric rise in the francophone province, the New Democrats would have likely been barred from Stornoway as the Bloc Québécois had entered the election on pace to win 50 or so seats, and the NDP's gains outside of Quebec were in part due to their rise in the polls in the province.

Jack Layton will thus have to speak as the voice of Quebec without alienating the base of support he has built in the rest of the country. The recent flap over the NDP's position on a potential Quebec referendum has already revealed some of the fissures between his two pillars of support. If the NDP fails Quebecers, the sense of political isolation the province already feels would only be boosted, further increasing the chances of another PQ government. If he tries to curry favour in Quebec too much, he risks losing support outside of the province.

In addition, Mr. Layton has to present himself as an alternative to the Harper Government. Arguably, the NDP has less clout with this majority government than they did in any of the previous minority parliaments, and maintaining an effective and reasonable opposition may prove difficult. If successful, Jack Layton may appear like a Prime Minister-in-waiting by the next campaign, but if the inexperienced elements of his new caucus throw the party off track, as it did for the ADQ in Quebec between 2007-2008, this NDP breakthrough might prove to have been a one-off event.

THE LIBERAL PARTY

The Liberals, under interim leader Bob Rae, have to find a way to remain relevant. Centrist parties have been squeezed out in a number of other Western democracies, and the Liberals will need to find a way to avoid that fate. They have a lot of time to re-build the party and prepare for the next election, but after years of trying to present themselves as an alternative to the Conservatives, the Liberals now need to convince Canadians that they are the alternative to the new alternative that is the NDP. With only 34 seats, and little representation in the West or francophone Quebec, the Liberals will find it challenging to continue to speak as a national party.

THE BLOC

For the Bloc, which has gone from 47 MPs to only four and a staff of over 100 to little more than a dozen, the challenge will be their own survival. With less than 12 MPs, they have lost official party status in the House of Commons and the advantages that go with it. Though the Bloc still garnered more than 23% support in the province, maintaining a presence in Quebec as well as Ottawa may prove difficult. Capitalizing on any NDP missteps in the province will likely drive their strategy in the short- to mid-term.

THE GREEN PARTY

And for the Green Party and their leader Elizabeth May, their sole representative on Parliament Hill, the next four years will need to be used to prove that the Greens belong in Ottawa. Ms. May gambled by putting all of her party's eggs in her riding's basket, and she needs to prove that the cost in national visibility (the party went from 6.8% support in 2008 to 3.9% in 2011) was well worth it.

As the parties clumsily attempt to find their way in this new political reality, there is much potential for great political theatre. But this is also an opportunity for each of the three major parties. Whether it be the development of long-term goals and policies that can be implemented with a view to the next few decades rather than the next few months, a change in the tone of politics and the way things are done in Ottawa, or the re-definition of a party's lost identity, the transformations caused by the last federal election may turn out to be more than a mere change of colour on the electoral map.

Éric Grenier is author of ThreeHundredEight.com, covering Canadian politics, polls and electoral projections.

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06:23 PM on 06/03/2011
Why anyone voted for him I cannot understand. All the information was right there. His neocon ideology was out in the open, but we ignore what it has done to the states and vote for him anyway. Despite his past displays of blatant disregard, no, contempt for democracy, his obvious corporate allegiance, his police state ideals, we give him a majority. Mind you he only got a majority because of our backwards election process where only 40% vote for him but he gets enough seats for a majority, It's not like most people wanted him in. These next 5 years will be difficult to stomach.
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Jeremyewilliams
Reality is not the GOPs cup of tea!
07:08 PM on 06/03/2011
People strangely enjoy voting against their own best interests. It's mind-boggling!
02:35 PM on 06/03/2011
I hate to even think of the damage Bush-lite will do to Canada in the next 5 years.

And he doesn't have to care about what the majority of Canadian's want, he just has to undermine the opposition before the next election which he is already well on his way to doing.

Expect the CRTC to remove the rule requiring truthful news reporting. The CRTC backed away from that change once, but with the PCs in majority you can be sure it will happen before the next election. If there is one thing conservative governments hate its honest reporting, they want their own version of Fox News in Canada.

He is already planning on removing the per vote subsidy that political parties receive. Harper knows that the corporation and wealthy who own the conservative party have far deeper pockets then the Liberal's or NDP will ever have access to. I doubt that he will risk the union
busting techniques the republicans are using to attack the democrats base but look for something similar.
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tooldude
11:28 AM on 06/03/2011
Welcome to Huff Po Canada, the new official media arm of the now defunct Liberal Party of Canada.
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North2011
"He who knows best, knows how little he knows"
01:53 AM on 06/03/2011
I think Canadians should send Mr. Harper to Israel:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUfFdhIOoQM
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Stupert
11:18 PM on 06/02/2011
Why so angry? You had a chance to make a difference before the election. The votes have been tabulated and the results are clear. Harper has a small majority that is entirely dependent on his ability to be a right leaning Liberal, not an evangelical anti-abortion, rapture awaiting, evolution denying arch-villain. Like all politicians, he craves power and re-election, as does his stable of parliamentarians. As a party not imbued with an overwhelming sense of entitlement (see Liberals - the Natural Governing Party of Canada), the Conservatives will work hard to get re-elected. This will not happen by introducing policies outside of the mainstream. The surest way to irrelevance is to show the electorate you disrespect the mandate they gave you. See Bush/Republicans in 2008 and Obama/Democrats mid-term 2010 and likely Tea Party/Republicans in 2012.

I expect better from Canadian commentary.
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Louis Bernardi
I live in a treehouse!
08:47 AM on 06/03/2011
If by working hard you mean: breaking the law and disrespecting democracy on several occasions, confusing the general public with just plain false claims in dirty attack ads, and making a platform that has even less sense than most conservative platforms in the past, yea he's working hard.
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Stilyagi
Making a board with a bigger nail in it.
11:26 AM on 06/03/2011
See Bush? What are you on? Bush WON his two terms! The maximum he could win! He did so by **introducin­g policies outside of the mainstream­**. Exactly what Harper is going to do. Harper is Bush with glasses.
Rantibus
Cogito, Ergo Rant
06:41 PM on 06/03/2011
It has never been proven that Bush "won" his first term. He was essentially appointed by a 5-4 vote of an extremely partisan Supreme Court. His "policies outside of the mainstream" included abrogating many international treaties, given himself the power to abrogate the Posse Comitatus Act and Habeus Corpus, creating a phony war in Iraq, raising the debt ceiling seven times, looting SoSec and the Treasury, ignoring Bin Laden, etc.
06:51 PM on 06/02/2011
In the next 4-5 years there will not be one enlightened progressive idea uttered by anyone in this secretive isolated Conservative Party. Our beloved Canada will now endure the politics of "Harperland". The economy will be run no better or worse than if the Liberals were in power, although there will be serious cuts to anyone in need. There will be no compromise on anything. Cabinet members will still be tethered to the ball and chain and they will be unavailable to the media. Our Canada will have nothing to offer the international community. Canadians will have to be more diligent than ever to be cognizant of what this nasty government is up to.
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Stilyagi
Making a board with a bigger nail in it.
11:28 AM on 06/03/2011
I don't care a WHIT about what Canada has to offer "the international community". I care about what it is doing with itself.

And that's why I want Harper terminated. Ideally, in the most painful way possible.
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truenortherner
All will be revealed
04:10 PM on 06/03/2011
Ohhh, now you've done it. I hope you realize you are now officially on the CSIS and RCMP watch list ... as well as the E.O.H. list. ;)
06:30 PM on 06/02/2011
warmongering is now a prime objective ---superceding health care

stevie wants to be a player on the world military stage and involved with the "big" boys in the war theatres
Thelonius
Lived in Middle East for
05:11 PM on 06/02/2011
The good news about Harper is that he is his own worst enemy. Members of the opposition parties should just let Harper be Harper. They won't regret it.
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Stilyagi
Making a board with a bigger nail in it.
11:29 AM on 06/03/2011
Yea, right. Meanwhile, he has ONLY 4 years to destroy the country, with nothing stopping him.

Then after he does that, there's a good chance he won't be re elected. Maybe.
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Firestarterfive
Canada Calling....
04:58 PM on 06/02/2011
Stevie has the personality of wet cardboard.
07:26 PM on 06/02/2011
what do u have against wet cardboard?
04:24 PM on 06/02/2011
I adore you Canadians.
you're like pink fluffy bunnies, blissfully ignorant about the shite that's coming.
The sad thing is that all you have to do is see what happened in the US. But you remain willfully ignorant. And honestly after what they did to the US, I can't blame you.
1. Need a scape-goat. Immigrants, check. "The gays", wait for it, it will happen. Even in Canada. And of course the "brownies", check.
2. Divide and conquer. Split the populace. Have them fight each other. So called "patriots". Check, check, and check.
3. Decrease corporate tax rates, very soon check. Increase deficits, check. Then when the "other party" is in charge, use the deficit, that they created, to create "austerity" for the poor and middle class. Heard of "job-killing taxes"? That's straight copy from the US Cons. Don't worry, the "patriots" will back you up. Soon, check.
4. Buy the government. Legalize bribery, aka lobbying. No publicly-funded elections. So where does the money come from? All on track, soon checked.
5. Sell all public utilities, resources, and land to private hands. Already on its way.
6. War over people. Bloat the military budget. The MIC loves it. And make that a rallying cry for the "patriots". Because war is "good". And profitable. For the few.
Jet fighters? 10 billions? 20 billion? 30 billion? Oh ya.
How many homeless or starving people? Children? elderly? Could those billions help them? No worries, war is "good".
Thelonius
Lived in Middle East for
05:13 PM on 06/02/2011
Well said! Haven't Canadians already seen this movie with its disastrous ending south of the border?
05:21 PM on 06/02/2011
But like us, they will repeat the same mistakes.
I feel bad for them. But they like us will willingly line up for the meat grinder.
They honestly think that they can wait out 4-5 years. They have no idea the damage that can be done in that much time.
It's too bad. Maybe their proximity makes it inevitable.
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tokenblackman
10:48 PM on 06/02/2011
When you become a petro state like we have become what do you expect? Greed blinds everyone.
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GuyCybershy
02:54 PM on 06/02/2011
You wonder how many drama coaches they had to hire before they taught him to smile convincingly.
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Counterintuitive
We'll steer by the beacon of our 100 year forecast
07:48 PM on 06/02/2011
Convincingly? Even Red Riding Hood wouldn't fall for that smile.
cdnman
Still a free spirit...
04:19 AM on 06/03/2011
I agree, that baby toothed smile just looks like he has gas.
01:51 PM on 06/02/2011
Look at that face. Try and tell me he isn't a panty-sniffer.
02:00 PM on 06/02/2011
That would be a bad thing?
01:26 PM on 06/02/2011
harpo is the cdn version of W.
both believe in the rapture, not the future, spending money on military, not people's needs
lowering corporate tax rates while businesses are doing well and canadians are worried about health care
harpo wants to decrease CPP payments for those taking them 'early' at age 60
60 is 'early' ?

30 billion on f35 jets we don't need
I wonder how many MRI machines that could have helped buy?

what's the tab on the Afghanistan "peace making" mission as opposed to "peace keeping" under Paul Martin;s Liberals?
02:00 PM on 06/02/2011
"harpo"? How old are you and what do you know of the real world?
Yes, 60 is early. Again; what do you know of the real world? I wonder how many MRI machines the saved money can buy? See how that works son?
Please provide a link quoting Mr. Harper as believing in the rapture, surely you didn't just make that up.
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alsm9
Bombshell
Thelonius
Lived in Middle East for
05:17 PM on 06/02/2011
http://www.vancourier.com/opinion/right Christian prime minister tsunami Canadia\n values/4685706/story.html

"Far-right Christian prime minister a tsunami to Canadian values"
By Geoff Olson, Vancouver Courier, April 29/11

EXCERPT:
"In his book Of Passionate Intensity: Right-Wing Populism and the Reform Party of
Canada, Trevor Harrison documents that Harper was a member in 1989 of the
ultra-right wing Northern Foundation, an organization comprised of social
Darwinist intellectuals. Our leader has also been a decades-long member of the
Alliance Church, a body that won't ordain women, denounces homosexuality,
strongly opposes abortion and divorce, and believes Christ will return during
the Apocalypse."
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Cananna
I like trees and bunnies.
01:16 PM on 06/02/2011
There is nothing scarier than going online to see Harper's creepy smirk right off the bat.
I'm going to have to change my homepage.
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john frodo
armchair expert
12:55 PM on 06/02/2011
Harper will destroy Canada
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Blodo
Time to build a better world
01:26 PM on 06/02/2011
I'm not that worried. He ignores opinion polls at his party's long-term peril, and those have clearly put the Tories off-side on a couple of key issues (gun registration and corporate tax reduction, to name two). Even he isn't self-obsessed enough to go after the national health plan in a big way. So my prediction is that he will be "conservative" in regard to non-health public spending, military purchases, brown-nosing with Israel and overall deficit reduction. If he actually carries through on senate reform, that is one measure that will be almost universally popular.

Like every other bozo we've ever elected, he has a limited time work his will. As long as he doesn't leave us bankrupt like Trudeau did, the future won't be too bleak.
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logicanada
Blogger, radio co-host, writer, editor, voice-over
02:11 PM on 06/02/2011
Forget political peril. Just look what Bush did in four years. Harper will have a cushy board appointment when he departs.
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john frodo
armchair expert
02:16 PM on 06/02/2011
I agree we can get rid of them in 4 years, but look what Mulroney did, sold our oil to the US. If we had kept the PET NEP we would be rich like Norway.

And BTW it was not Trudeau who left us bankrupt.
http://thinkingaboot.blogspot.com/2011/06/if-debt-is-so-bad-how-come.html
04:38 PM on 06/02/2011
Only your version of it !
06:37 PM on 06/02/2011
you mean the good part.