Harper Conservatives Ride High In Poll: Tories Corner Vote Among Religious, Older, Male Canadians

Kate Stephen Harper

The Huffington Post Canada   First Posted: 07/05/11 06:03 AM ET Updated: 09/03/11 06:12 AM ET


Two months in and Canadians have no regrets about how they voted in the last federal election.

According to the latest polling results from Abacus Data, the voting intentions of Canadians have changed very little since the vote was last held on May 2nd.

The poll, conducted between June 23 and 24, found that the Conservatives stand at 41 per cent support, virtually unchanged from the election and Abacus’s last poll held in mid-May.

The New Democrats are also holding steady at 32 per cent support.

The Liberals trail in third with 17 per cent support, up one point from May but down two from the election, while the Greens stand at five per cent.

With these levels of support, the House of Commons would be changed very little from its current make-up if an election were held today.

The Conservatives hold a solid lead over the NDP among men, at 45 to 28 per cent support respectively, but the two parties are tied at 36 per cent apiece among women.

There also appears to be a generational gap: the New Democrats lead among Canadians aged 44 or younger, while the Conservatives lead among those aged 45 or older.

Religion is another predictor of political support. The Conservatives have a large lead among those who say religion plays a very or somewhat important role in their lives, but the population is split between the government and the official opposition among the less religious.

Specifically, the Conservatives lead among Protestants and especially evangelicals (67 per cent), while the New Democratic Party is ahead among Roman Catholics (thanks to Quebec) and the non-religious.

The New Democrats’ filibuster of back-to-work legislation in the wake of the work stoppage at Canada Post may be partly explained by support for them in union households: 38 per cent, ahead of the Tories at 36 per cent. For their part, the Conservatives lead in non-union households by a significant margin (43 per cent to 29 per cent).

In Ontario, the Conservatives are ahead with 43 per cent. They are trailed at a distance by the NDP (27 per cent) and the Liberals (25 per cent). This represents a five point gain for the Liberals in the province since Abacus’s last poll, most of it coming at the expense of the NDP.

But Jack Layton’s party is still dominant in Quebec, where it leads with 42 per cent support. The Bloc Québécois polled at 25 per cent, up three points since the last poll but generally where the sovereigntist party stood on election night. The Conservatives, however, are doing much better in the province. They are up five points since the election and three points since Abacus’s last poll, and are solidly in third with 22 per cent.

The Liberals, with only nine per cent support, are virtually non-existent in Quebec.

Elsewhere, the Conservatives enjoy solid leads in British Columbia (54 per cent), Alberta (59 per cent), and the Prairies (49 per cent). In each of these regions the New Democrats placed second by large margins, while in Atlantic Canada the NDP and Tories are running neck-and-neck.

The online panel poll by Abacus Data was conducted on June 23 and 24 and surveyed 1,005 Canadians. A random sample of this size would have a margin of error of +/- 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Éric Grenier taps The Pulse of federal and regional politics for Huffington Post Canada readers on Tuesdays and Fridays. Grenier is the author of ThreeHundredEight.com, covering Canadian politics, polls and electoral projections.

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Two months in and Canadians have no regrets about how they voted in the last federal election. According to the latest polling results from Abacus Data, the voting intentions of Canadians have c...
Two months in and Canadians have no regrets about how they voted in the last federal election. According to the latest polling results from Abacus Data, the voting intentions of Canadians have c...
 
 
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07:00 AM on 07/06/2011
I'm about to become a senior in a couple years, and Harpo sure as hell doesn't get my vote. Seniors will regret their support for this clown when he starts to cut their social programs. Caveat emptor!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Steve Lives
The Venus Project ... look it up
02:07 AM on 07/06/2011
Conservationism has always failed, or we wouldn't be where we are today.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Steve Lives
The Venus Project ... look it up
02:11 AM on 07/06/2011
Lol damn spell checker. I meant Conservatism.
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Newfoundlander
I'm a pessimist, an optimist with experience!
01:53 AM on 07/06/2011
Well, I'm male and over 65, and the Tories don't have my support. Since you can't trust the Tories to do anything except act AGAINST the interests of ordinary Canadians, I can't see how anyone would support them.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
logicanada
Blogger, radio co-host, writer, editor, voice-over
10:14 PM on 07/05/2011
Two months in and Canadians have no regrets about how they voted in the last federal election. . .

Except Canada Post employees and their families.
Except Air Canada employees and their families.
Except Teachers.
Except Nurses.
Except Wheat Board advocates and all farmers.
Except everyone who does not live in Calgary.
Except First Nation Groups.
Except GLBTG folks.
Except the CBC and all non-Corus group media outlets.
Except all non-christians.
Except me. . . and you . . . . and . . . .
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
logicanada
Blogger, radio co-host, writer, editor, voice-over
10:15 PM on 07/05/2011
Oh, and all unionized workers . . . and . . . .
11:07 AM on 07/06/2011
Teachers & nurses are both provincial workers...

Unionized workers are at 36% in favour of the Conservatives compared to 38% for the NDP.

Farmers voted for the Conservatives (check their seat count out West).

Do you people even read the articles or just see the name Stephen Harper and start moaning and complaining?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dclintn648
Conservatism is dread
08:47 PM on 07/05/2011
"Religious, Older, Male"... they forgot white. These conservatives are a cult that likes to keep their power and they're willing to sell their souls to make sure they do. We're heading straight for an American style, for-profit system where the rich get the rewards and everyone else gets the bill.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
haddanuff
Progressives think 'We' while cons think "Me"
08:41 PM on 07/05/2011
Unite the left!
The only possible way any CONservative government can enjoy a majority is by ensuring that the left is split.
It has always been that way.
Show the electorates 2 clear choices and you will never see a CONservative government again.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dclintn648
Conservatism is dread
06:54 PM on 07/05/2011
For the past 30 years, corporate profits have increased enormously, corporate officers have increased their pay by 400%, while corporate ownership of the media and their influence on politics has risen at the same astonishing rate.

For the past 30 years, middle class wages have been stagnant, union membership has declined enormously, Social Security and Medicare have been chipped away, women and minorities have barely made any headway, while seniors and children have been abandoned.

Funny how that seems to have coincidentally happened at the same time...
06:44 PM on 07/05/2011
Canada needs a Revolution.

Why are no Big Shot political players in jail?

Who investigates the government? No corruption charges ever?

Who investigates the police? No cross agency cases ever? Why is that?

Who investigates the judiciary? I never hear about corrupt lawyers, judges or prosecutors being charges with corruption. It never happens?

Who investigates when it comes to the State?

Canada needs a Revolution.

No Free Speech, no Right to Natural Self Defense. Our showers, food, liquor , and gas prices are all controlled.

I could on and on but my question is this.

Who investigates the State and why is nobody in jail?
11:48 AM on 07/07/2011
Who investigat­es the police? No cross agency cases ever? Why is that?
- this is prevented by Unions. Something that the Conservatives do not necessarily agree with.

Our showers, food, liquor , and gas prices are all controlled­.
- controlled pricing is a very socialist idea, something the conservatives do not support, while NDP would.

Who investigat­es the State and why is nobody in jail?
- With a majority government, the conservatives are cracking down on white collar crime. Something they couldn't do before without majority power. It's the liberal party that was always against this.
06:38 PM on 07/05/2011
Steven Harper should be locked up.

Dalton McGuinty should be locked up.

They are both thieves, liars and criminals.

Canada needs a Revolution so we can lock up dirty corrupt free loading clowns like Harper, Layton, and every single other government official.

Police chiefs, dirty lawyers, prosecutors and judges, all unelected would be the next to be locked up.

I'm starting to get pissed off at the obvious corruption.
11:08 AM on 07/06/2011
I give you points for being consistent, you listed Layton and Harper. What about poor Ignatieff, ignored again...
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MCJanes
My micro-bio is empty.
02:37 PM on 07/05/2011
And once again, Quebec and Newfoundland are the black sheep of the country. This is gonna be an ugly four years, don't say we didn't warn you.
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Mastiff
Via ovicipitum dura est.
03:19 PM on 07/05/2011
Are you from Newfoundland? I'm just curious to hear how they feel about the results.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MCJanes
My micro-bio is empty.
11:59 AM on 07/06/2011
The federal Tories are despised by the vast majority of Newfoundlanders (can't speak for Labradorians). I don't think Harper will ever get another seat on the island while he's in charge.

As upset as we were by his majority, he put salt in the wound by letting the local Search and Rescue Response office be relocated to Halifax a month after the election, a move which once again has united NLers in hatred of the Cons. This is a VERY big deal for a province which relies on the unforgiving North Atlantic - a far cry from the Ottawa river.

He also shut down a similar one in Quebec...coincidence?
06:39 PM on 07/05/2011
"And once again, Quebec and Newfoundla­nd are the black sheep of the country. This is gonna be an ugly four years, don't say we didn't warn you. "

Downtown Toronto ran the country under Chretien the thief. Chretien should be in jail.

This whole country of Canada is a joke.
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shediac
09:51 PM on 07/05/2011
Thanks to 'Chretien the thief' the Canadian banks did not 'run-a-muck' like they did in the USA. Thanks to 'Chretien the thief' Canada had a budget surplus when the neo-cons under Harper took over and thanks to that budget surplus, which Harper did is best to spend, Canada is in reasonable economic shape...but hey Harper has 4 years to destroy that....
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
canuckhoser
Don't mind the man behind the curtain
01:33 AM on 07/06/2011
1) Do you have a passport?

2) If so, do you just stick with your Canadian flag sewn on your backpack or do you wear your made-in-canada shirt everyday
01:36 PM on 07/05/2011
40% does not equal a majority. 60% of the votes where not for the Conservatives. Always remember that the Harper's Conservatives do not represent Canada as a whole.
02:41 PM on 07/05/2011
So to you, the last legitimate Prime Minister of the country was Brian Mulroney? After all, he was the last one to get more than 50% of the votes, not Jean (best showing 41%) not Pierre (best result 45%) ever broke that magical 50% barrier. If you want to find another PM that had more that 50% of the vote you have to go back to John Diefenbaker in the 50's.

What this means is that 38-40% is what you need to win a majority, and if Michael Ignatieff or Jack Layton had won 38% you would probably not be complaining.
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canuckhoser
Don't mind the man behind the curtain
03:46 PM on 07/05/2011
So black and white....

The facts don't lie. With 38% of the vote the cons snaked their way into a 54% majority of the seats...The libs took a pounding..but UHOH!!, they only lost 8% of the vote...

Canada was ripped off. First past the post is a cheat and this is the most phony majority in Canadian history...
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Mastiff
Via ovicipitum dura est.
05:27 PM on 07/05/2011
"40% does not equal a majority."

1984: Mulroney PC majority: 50.03%
1988: Mulroney PC majority: 43.02%
1993: Chrétien Liberal majority: 41.24%
1997: Chrétien Liberal majority: 38.46%
2000: Chrétien Liberal majority: 40.85%
2011: Harper Conservati­ve majority: 39.62%

In Canada, 40% is a majority. That's what happens when you don't have a two-party system.
06:45 PM on 07/05/2011
Hard to believe that some people think that it takes 50% to make a majority government in Canada...especially when they know that we have more than two parties...duh...
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cameron d
Good Guys Win
12:49 PM on 07/05/2011
We aren't as smart as we portray ourselves to be to the rest of the world.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
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PortlandZoo
Wait... what?
06:13 PM on 07/05/2011
you got that right - late to the party - Canada has a neo-con government and our southern neighbours had one that nearly ruined them. As usual, we're dangerously behind the curve.
06:51 PM on 07/05/2011
...and what pray tell do you think would happen if we had a federal NDP majority in Canada? Just look at what the provincial NDP did to Manitoba, Ontario and BC...brought each of those provinces to the brink of bankruptcy that's what. Are some people so blind that they just can't see that our country has become quite prosperous under Stephen Harper...even when he had his hands tied by a minority government, and that was during and after a recession.???
08:45 AM on 07/08/2011
"We aren't as smart as we portray ourselves to be to the rest of the world. "

HONESTLY.......

You couldn't have said it any better.

You people are not nearly as smart as you pretend to be.
12:23 PM on 07/05/2011
Grumpy old men- voting for grumpy old men.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
temenos
castigat ridendo mores
12:46 PM on 07/05/2011
Don't tar everyone with the same brush. I'm a grumpy old man but I would never vote for Harper.
02:21 PM on 07/05/2011
My apologies- :)
06:52 PM on 07/05/2011
Nope...If you are NDP then and that tells the majority of Canadians everything they need to know...LOL
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
tweed7t
wear sunscreen and dance
02:25 PM on 07/05/2011
older religious male voters are tories. say no more. All these wanna-be "silverbacks" should form their own gorilla group at the zoo.
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Mastiff
Via ovicipitum dura est.
05:30 PM on 07/05/2011
Yeah, what's with giving older people the vote anyways? Especially the ones who bother to show up on election day?

Dammit, you old folks get off my lawn!
06:54 PM on 07/05/2011
Well you are gonna have to suck it up because those "wann-be silverbacks" have put Stephen Harper in a majority government for the next four years...LOL
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john frodo
armchair expert
12:11 PM on 07/05/2011
He is at his highwater mark.
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GoldDustDreams
11:06 AM on 07/05/2011
Stop the presses! Religious old white guys are voting conservative!
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Amorak
11:32 AM on 07/05/2011
Don't forget that today's "old guys", many religious but not fundamentally so, were the young guys of the '70s who's idea of a conservative was Joe Clark and Robert Stanfield, with many of us voting Trudeau Liberal in one election and Progressive Conservative in the next. Many of us are old activists and hippies who have no use whatsoever for Harper and his Far Right. Harper reminds too many of us of Richard Nixon - it's what he doesn't tell us that's the most worrisome!
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MJinCanada
Safe from zombies until my 2nd cup of coffee
12:45 PM on 07/05/2011
Well said.

Harper is not a conservative as Canadians knew and more or less trusted twenty or more years ago. He is the product of that disturbing fundamentalist-evangelical-libertarian-neocon fusion that also produced the Tea Party.
01:27 PM on 07/05/2011
Amorak - today's "old guys" were yuppies in the 80s. A more self-centered, materialistic group would be hard to find.

Speaking as one of the cohort that came just after.