Canada's Debt Ceiling Fears: What A Default In Washington Means For Canadians

First Posted: 07/27/11 09:20 AM ET   Updated: 09/26/11 06:12 AM ET

If Americans are experiencing feelings of helplessness over the political wrangling that is keeping Washington from raising its debt ceiling in the face of a fast-approaching deadline, they should try watching the drama unfold from this side of the border. Despite the fact that Canadians have no control over what happens in Washington, if an agreement is not reached by Aug. 2, to raise the annual amount of debt needed to fund government spending, we will no doubt share in the consequences.

“We are connected to the U.S., to their political decisions,” says James Marple, a senior economist at TD Economics.

As Marple points out, through exports alone, roughly one-fifth of the Canadian economy is “directly impacted by what’s happening south of the border.” Factor in things like financial and commodity markets, and, he says, “the entire impact is probably much, much greater.”

So how worried should we be? Despite the suggestion that missing the deadline would trigger an economic catastrophe of Lehman Brothers proportions, experts told The Huffington Post Canada that the likelihood of a U.S. debt default is slim.

See the six reasons below

“This is an entirely avoidable issue and completely self-inflicted,” says BMO chief economist Douglas Porter. “Just as it is entirely self-inflicted, the issue can be put away rather quickly if cooler heads do ultimately prevail. I don’t think any of us want to find out exactly what the real deadline is, but I don’t think the earth is going to stop rotating on August 2.”

That said, the failure to broker a deal in a timely fashion would likely lead to fallout on both sides of the border. So intertwined are our economies that depending on what the next week brings, average Canadians could experience a shift in everything from their buying power to their job prospects.

But Canadians may be surprised to know that it’s not all bad news. Here’s a preview of what continued unrest in Washington could mean for you.

1. The value of our dollar
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The Canadian dollar surpassed $1.06 (U.S.) against the greenback Tuesday, not far off historic highs. And if Washington doesn't reach an agreement over the debt ceiling before its bills come due, economists say the loonie could soar even higher -- at least in the short term. As University of Toronto economist Jack Carr explains, the perception among international investors of the Canadian dollar as relatively risk-free is a large part of what has been sending its value skyward. "It used to be that the primary [safe haven] was the U.S. dollar, and the secondary was the Euro," he says. But according to BMO Chief Economist Douglas Porter, if the crisis were to deepen -- or if a U.S. debt default occurred -- the strength of the loonie (and the increased buying power for consumers) would fade. "If there is real economic damage done to the global economy, that would undercut commodity prices, which in turn could lead to a weakening of the Canadian dollar," he says.
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If Americans are experiencing feelings of helplessness over the political wrangling that is keeping Washington from raising its debt ceiling in the face of a fast-approaching deadline, they should try...
If Americans are experiencing feelings of helplessness over the political wrangling that is keeping Washington from raising its debt ceiling in the face of a fast-approaching deadline, they should try...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Lost Rights
Wine Glass Wealth Distribution, 20% have 82%.
11:13 AM on 07/28/2011
Real Unemployment Statistics
"The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), using its Current Population Survey of non-farm jobs, announced this morning that in March 2011 "U.S. employers increased non-farm payrolls by 216,000 jobs, including 230,000 private sector jobs added in the month versus an adjusted upward 240,000 increase in February. The 'official' unemployment rate edged down to 8.8% from 8.9%."

The consensus expectation was for 195,000 new private sector jobs, versus the 230,000 were announced. The BLS also identified 13.5 million unemployed.

The monthly BLS announcement regarding unemployment, however, as we note each month:

1. Uses only a "survey of households" rather than much more accurate payroll data;
2. Excludes changes in employment among the nation's 11.0 million farm and self-employed workers; and
3. Most important, does not take into account the 14.7 million workers who are:
i. "part-time-of-necessity" (i.e., underemployed) because their hours have been cut back or they are unable to find a full-time job (8.4 million);
ii. "marginally attached" to the labor force because while wanting a job, they have not searched for one in the past four weeks because of availability, skill or personal reasons (2.4 million); or The real unemployment rate is 17.7%, compared to last month's real unemployment rate of 17.8% and to BLS's dramatically lower 'official' rate of 8.8%."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-clemons/real-unemployment-shows-u_b_843783.html
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Sam Huston
Fair, Balanced and Informed
07:44 AM on 07/28/2011
If Obama had gotten his fiscal act together instead of pushing for socialist reforms we wouldn’t be in this dire situation.

And seeing that he still doesn’t get it, he should go play a round of golf or something and leave the budget negotiations to the big boys.
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04:32 PM on 07/28/2011
go back to your cage monkey. boehner and his goons are trying to run the country into a second recession. obama is the only adult in this entire debate.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Lost Rights
Wine Glass Wealth Distribution, 20% have 82%.
10:29 PM on 07/27/2011
""If there is real economic damage done to the global economy, that would undercut commodity prices, which in turn could lead to a weakening of the Canadian dollar," he says."

Yes and commodity traders are the ones to lose. I am sure they have already lined up their Ducks, pun intended, like the traders world over. We in America with 20% unemployment and the current plan to cut ourselves into another deeper recession/depression. No taxes on the richest and cuts to old, sick an poor.

Anyway, IMO and the article yesterday explaining why this will not affect the rest of us, and why the 2% made this so they could profit.
01:06 AM on 07/28/2011
"We in America with 20% unemployme­nt " The article and you seem to have different statistics as it states "the United States, where the jobless rate is 9.2 per cent." Are you just making up statistics to prove your point?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Lost Rights
Wine Glass Wealth Distribution, 20% have 82%.
11:18 AM on 07/28/2011
"Even worse, real unemployment is more than 18%. Yet Washington overall has obviously yet to embrace a large-scale job creation agenda. Even if we reach consensus around the deficit -- the only economic issue even getting any attention these days -- it will do little to help the 29 million Americans who are unemployed in real terms. If we do not seriously tackle jobs, our country may never regain its competitive global edge." -http://www.huffingtonpost.com/leo-hindery-jr/a-vision-for-economic-ren_b_908493.html
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
piceaglauca
The picture says it all....
05:25 PM on 07/27/2011
Fear mongering at its best.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Skiwee
Just taking my time...
04:34 PM on 07/27/2011
The US debt ceiling will be raised. All we're looking at right now is alot of political postering and pandering. If it's one thing the Repubs love more than a higher power is money.

Everything they're doing now, more than anything else, is trying to get Obama voted out of the White House in 2012. Let's hope it backfires.
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04:33 PM on 07/28/2011
it most certainly will. no matter what the repugs try, none of their candidates stands a chance.
04:27 PM on 07/27/2011
Wonder how long it will be when you buy a Hallmark card and on the back it will say:
USA $3.95 Canada $3.50
I predict a few years....
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Sam Huston
Fair, Balanced and Informed
07:45 AM on 07/28/2011
I am still waiting for a less expensive Harley.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Lost Rights
Wine Glass Wealth Distribution, 20% have 82%.
11:21 AM on 07/28/2011
Now may be the time, with that trade rate. I saw some unbelievable deals on used and many models, at Thunder Mountain in Colorado, and I am sure everywhere. There are so many used that are nearly new because of the recession, lots of people cant afford to keep up the payments on a $30,000 Harley, so they are at half price many times.
Check craigslist.
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04:33 PM on 07/28/2011
books also say US$7 Canada 10.99 wtf
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Norma Ward
02:32 PM on 07/27/2011
Since those of us that are mere mortals have difficulty actually understanding just how massive America’s $14.343 trillion debt is, here’s an article that puts the number into terms that are more understandable:

http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2011/07/americas-sovereign-debt-issue-putting.html


The new debt ceiling is not really fixing any of America's federal debt problems over the long term. Washington is spending all of its political capital creating the new debt floor.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
greysells2
grey cells matter
03:49 PM on 07/27/2011
Thanks Norma for calling this to the attention of all the bloggers here. I strongly recommend the blog www.viableopposition.blogspot.com. The author is insightful, clever and well informed. He is a regular for me on my internet crawls. Bookmark the link and follow him for a while. Or look at some of his previous posts that might interest you. Worth the time.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
JackHoffman
Pundit
01:00 PM on 07/27/2011
Canada should be looking to the Asia and the Pacific Rim for new trade agreements and lessen their trade dependence on the US currently now at 80%. The Tea Party yahoos are in charge south of the border and until that changes the US will flounder and drag Canada, its largest trading partner, down with it.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
13champlain
It is all good....range rover all wood
10:31 AM on 07/27/2011
Moving to Newfoundland on Saturday!
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
mrsmdressup
100% snark
12:36 PM on 07/27/2011
I'm from Newfoundland. St. John's to be exact, but now living in Toronto.

I'll be going back in a couple of years as my parents are getting older and I have catholic guilt left over from my Catholic upbringing. You'll love Nfld...the people truly are the friendliest in the world but the weather is generally awful. The people and the food make up for it. tho.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
13champlain
It is all good....range rover all wood
02:21 PM on 07/27/2011
Can't wait. I have been making business trips to STJ's for a while. I love the location, but I love the people more. So genuinely nice. It will be good for the kids especially I think. ...mrdressup! love that. I grew up on the NY Quebec border near Montreal...we got CBC.
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TonyOnly
Truth matters.
10:07 AM on 07/27/2011
It seems to me Obama and the Democrats have agreed to cut spending on entitlements. But Rebublicans and the Tea Party want those cuts to reach damaging levels because they don`t want them balanced by tax increases.

The GOP has been going on and on about the problem of debt burden being passed on to future generations. But if they're so worried about future generations, why are they refusing to allow their own taxes to be increased?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Sam Huston
Fair, Balanced and Informed
08:03 AM on 07/28/2011
If they kick lazy people off welfare and other entitlements (not the real needy) they could take the off the book jobs the illegal aliens presently occupy and we have more tax payers. The illegals will go home eliminating one of the major sources of the drain on government expenditures and the economy.

I also advocate subjecting corporate welfare to intense scrutiny and eliminating redundancy in government programs.

Then and only then, would I consider a tax increase.
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TonyOnly
Truth matters.
11:13 AM on 07/30/2011
You do realize the manpower required to kick lazy people off welfare and force the illegal aliens out would require a massive increase in government spending.

Sounds good in theory, but highly impractical in the real world.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Domo Tronic
Digital Magician
09:25 AM on 07/27/2011
Ah, fear mongering at it's finest.Didn't know you changed your name to FoxPost.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
JackHoffman
Pundit
01:01 PM on 07/27/2011
How is interviewing and quoting Canadian business leaders and officials fear mongering?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Thomas Green
01:15 PM on 07/27/2011
Other people still stick to facts, Fox relies on it's gut.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
stanschurman
09:16 AM on 07/27/2011
The thing that gets me about the Republican mantra about not raising taxes on the top earners, aka the "job creators", is that they've had the Bush tax breaks for a decade, so where are the jobs? Is their take on it 'you think we haven't created jobs with the tax breaks? Take the breaks away and we really really really wont create any'?
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Jay from Ottawa
sovereignty sale, 1.3T OBO
09:27 AM on 07/27/2011
Here's an interesting idea using rough, un researched numbers (so they're subject to change to match actual stats)

The current top bracket will go up 5% (to 40%) except for those who have at least 5 americans, living in america, on their payroll earning any amount above minimum wage.

A higher bracket will be created for those earning more than 1 million a year. Those will be taxed at 60%, unless they have at least 20 americans, living in america, on their payroll earning any amount above minimum wage. Those who do would be taxed at the lower (current) bracket of 35%.

Lastly, a new top bracket for those earning more than 10M a year. Those will be taxed at 75%, unless they have at least 100 americans, living in america, on their payroll earning any amount above minimum wage. Those who do would be taxed at the lower (current) bracket of 35%.

That way, actual job creators, get to keep their current tax rate, 35%. Those who make a boatload of money by not hiring americans to save on labour, would pay through the wazoo.

Still better than post WWII when the top tax bracket floated between 70-93%.
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TonyOnly
Truth matters.
10:13 AM on 07/27/2011
It`s a falacy that tax cuts create jobs. Increased business is what causes companies to hire new employees. The only people who benefit from corporate tax cuts are shareholders.
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09:13 AM on 07/27/2011
http://ohcanadamovie.com/ all smarmy Canadians looking down your nose at the USA, remember this.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
elizlucinda
a mind is a terrible thing to waste
11:01 AM on 07/27/2011
Smarmy Canadians?

nice talk.......you are the epitome of an Ugly American
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11:26 AM on 07/27/2011
actualy I'm devastatingly handsome. (so im told)
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
CHMB
What's long and brown and sticky? A Stick.
11:58 AM on 07/27/2011
I didn't realise you spoke for all 30 million of us. You certainly don't speak for me.
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TonyOnly
Truth matters.
09:01 AM on 07/27/2011
The US debt ceiling has been raised almost 40 times in the last 50yrs. 10 times since 2001. It has to be. Imagine the American gov`t in 2011 trying to function at the spending levels of 1960.

The difference this time is teabaggers unclear on the concept. They either don`t realize or don`t care that they`re about to shoot the US, and possibly the world economy in the head.

They want it all now. They want other people to pay for it. And they want any repercussions blamed on Obama.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
mrsmdressup
100% snark
12:38 PM on 07/27/2011
74 times since JFK, actually. This is a manufactured crisis courtesy of the GOTea and their Liptonite caucus.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Scooterish
Please pass the meat!
12:56 PM on 07/27/2011
The teabaggers do not have the capacity to stop and think. They have no depth, no wisdom, no vision. That isn't going to change.