Canadian Banks' Sterling Reputation An Illusion, Financial Blog Argues

Canada Banks

The Huffington Post Canada   First Posted: 08/19/11 01:00 PM ET Updated: 10/19/11 06:12 AM ET

Since the financial crisis of 2008, Canada’s banks have become the darlings of the financial world, lauded by experts and observers for weathering the global storm arguably better than banks anywhere else in the world.

But according to an influential U.S. finance blog, that status is an illusion, and Canada's banks face potential catastrophe if their assets drop in value.

According to "Tyler Durden," the pseudonymous blogger behind Zero Hedge, "there is one place that has been very much insulated from the whipping of the market, and one place where banks are potentially in just as bad a shape as anywhere else in Europe. That place is ... Canada."

Durden's argument centres around the Canadian banks' tangible common equity ratio -- a measure of banks' ability to absorb losses. Durden reports that all of Canada's major banks have a TCE ratio below 4 per cent, meaning the banks could be insolvent if their assets lose more than 4 per cent of their value -- a narrow margin indeed.

According to Boyd Erman at the Globe and Mail, such a scenario could happen if Canada's housing market weakens considerably.

"In Canada, the concern would have to be the housing portfolios, the biggest chunks of Canadian banks' assets," Boyd writes. "If you believe that housing is in for a severe correction in Canada, and that Canadians won't repay their mortgages when the value of their homes falls, and that the banks will have to take significant write downs on the portions of their mortgage portfolios that are not insured by the federal government, then maybe you will come to the conclusion that Mr. Durden is onto something."

A chart comparing world banks' TCE ratios shows that all of Canada's six largest banks are among the 21 banks with the lowest TCE ratios, or the highest risk of becoming insolvent if the economy goes south.

CIBC's TCE ratio places it fourth in the world, with only Societe Generale, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse showing lower ratios. The National Bank, Scotiabank, RBC, TD and BMO all make the list as well, with five of the banks showing TCE ratios below 4 per cent, meaning a 4 per cent decrease in the value of their assets could sink the banks.

Canada's banks commonly report TCE ratios of 6.5 per cent or better, but as the Globe's Boyd explains, those ratios are based on risk-weighted assets rather than total asset values.

"Risk weighted assets adjust for the chance that the assets will go bad, and that's hardly a science. Total assets doesn't allow for such judgement calls," Boyd writes.

UPDATE: Campbell Harvey, a professor of international business at Duke University, disagrees with Boyd's assessment.

"You have to look at the quality of assets," he told BNN Friday afternoon. Canadian banks' assets include large holdings of AAA-rated Canadian sovereign debt and other high-quality assets, and "that's a lot different" from European banks that hold troubled Greek debt, for example, Harvey argued.

When you look at the quality of assets, "Canadian banks are amongst the most conservative in the world," Harvey said.

Original story continues below

For the time being, Canada's banks are likely to retain their sterling reputation at home and abroad, and most analysts list Canadian banks as among the most stable in the world.

On Thursday, Global Finance magazine released its 2011 list of the world's 50 safest banks, and six Canadian financial institutions found themselves on it. RBC led the Canadian pack, ranking 11th in the world, with TD Bank (13th), Scotiabank (18th), Caisse central Desjardins (20th), BMO (30th) and CIBC (31st) rounding off the list.

Despite its founder's use of a pseudonym from a 1990s cult film, the Zero Hedge blog is among the most influential financial blogs in the U.S. It has been credited with being the first to raise concerns about high-frequency trading.

News reports suggest that "Tyler Durden" is the pseudonym of Dan Ivandjiiski, a Bulgarian immigrant to the U.S. who was banned from working in brokerages over insider trading. Ivandjiiski has denied he's Zero Hedge's founder.

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Since the financial crisis of 2008, Canada’s banks have become the darlings of the financial world, lauded by experts and observers for weathering the global storm arguably better than banks anywher...
Since the financial crisis of 2008, Canada’s banks have become the darlings of the financial world, lauded by experts and observers for weathering the global storm arguably better than banks anywher...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Whistlejackett
Hey stop doing that
01:42 AM on 08/24/2011
Oh Canada, the true North strong and Free.
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grizzly bear55
King of the forest
08:04 PM on 08/21/2011
The Canadian Banks are the safest in the world.

Not only they are forced by the government to have huge loss reserves, their lending practices are extremely safe.

They can not be owned by a foreign entity, they can not merge, they need permission for everything.

An unknown US blogger is not an authority especially on Canadian banks.
06:05 PM on 08/21/2011
Not sure if this has been mentioned but several Canadian banks have US subsidiaries. TD has extensive banking operations and therefore exposure in the US through its TD Bank N.A. subsidiary. BMO owns Harris Bank based in Chicago and recently purchased M & I Bank of Milwaukee, which does business in the upper Mid-West. Finally, until recently RBC had a large footprint in the Southeast US through its RBC US subsidiary, tentatively being sold to PNC Corp as of June 2011.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
logicanada
Blogger, radio co-host, writer, editor, voice-over
02:44 PM on 08/21/2011
Misery love company. Misery is an American export.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
logicanada
Blogger, radio co-host, writer, editor, voice-over
02:42 PM on 08/21/2011
Fractional Reserve Banking is never a good thing.
Jack Canuckski
Canadian Observer of the passing scene
01:32 PM on 08/21/2011
In my esimation, the biggest dangers facing the Canadian economy is not a collapse of our banking system, or our housing market. The greatest danger is that with the US and Europe both going into a "double-dip" recession, there is no way that Canada can avoid being effected, as the US is our largest and most important market.
If we had a government that understood that under these circumstances, the government has to spend more and increase its deficit and invest in infrastructure to maintain employment during that period, I would not worry as much. But unfortunately, we have elected a right-wing government that is infected with the same right-wing mythology that has infected the US and much of Europe, and so I expect hard times to get much worse in the next few years.
01:17 PM on 08/21/2011
The only thing that would cause problems are rises in interest rates, although many have locked in rates, a 3+ % increase in rates would strain things.
01:15 PM on 08/21/2011
In Canada as well as limited high ratio mortgages people have to show income. There is also limited inflating of values.
What happened in the US can not happen in Canada, as well we know the Yanks and that is why the Canadian banks really didnt touch the toxic waste.

In the US, I saw a case that a guy bought 10 houses, zero down, rented them all out, collected rent and never paid a cent on the mortgages. No way in Canada,,
12:00 PM on 08/21/2011
The key question is what are the down payments like? You can put down as little as 5% in Canada, if you have mortgage insurance, but what percent of mortgages are like that compared to conventional mortgages with 20% down?
09:25 AM on 08/21/2011
1. The Canadian housing market has possible "bubbles" only in a few of it's major cities - Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto and maybe Edmonton. Even there there are plenty of commuter towns with house prices whose mortgage payments are well below rental prices. Hamilton, Oshawa, etc.
2. Canadian mortgages allow the bank to sue the borrower personnally if they default - thus they are not limited to seizing the property to get their money. People cannot just walk away from their house and own nothing.
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grizzly bear55
King of the forest
08:07 PM on 08/21/2011
No they can not sue the debtor. Once the house is repossessed , the loan falls with it.

If the mortgage is insured, the bank gets the loss from the central mortgage & housing corp.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gravescanada
08:26 AM on 08/21/2011
Umm, until the 2008 collapse, the mortgage backed assets the American banks held were rated AAA by all three major ratings agency's. I am not saying Canadian banks are in trouble, I am saying our housing market has been running red hot for 6 years and I know of many people who have purchased homes at low interest rates, that would be unable to afford these homes if interest rates go up substantially. The problem with keeping interest rates low is there is such a small return. How long can the Bank of Canada keep interest rates at their current level?
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02:40 AM on 08/21/2011
Ah yes, another attempt at an anti-life equation.

I wonder if this is part of the 'al-qaeda' revenge? :3
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waldopepper
I'd tell you all about me if you were my friend.
02:06 AM on 08/21/2011
One persons opinion! Shocking that a system that so many depend upon for so much can be so subjective, that it can be shaken by a single opinion. That weakness of the system should be the story reported on.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
feuille derable
La République du Canada
11:25 PM on 08/20/2011
If you have to hide behind a pseudonym..... you lack credibility.
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waldopepper
I'd tell you all about me if you were my friend.
02:18 AM on 08/21/2011
The pseudonym allows them to speak freely without fear or reprisal.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
RhiannonRings
Childfree and loving it!
11:20 PM on 08/20/2011
I've read that there are about forty bloggers who write under the name Tyler Durden. It would make sense, since there are numerous posts on any given day.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
RhiannonRings
Childfree and loving it!
11:28 PM on 08/20/2011
Here ya go:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge