Canada's Public Debt Hits $1.1 Trillion, But That May Not Be As Bad As It Sounds

Canada National Public Debt Gdp Budget Deficit

First Posted: 10/03/11 02:32 PM ET Updated: 10/03/11 03:43 PM ET

Canada's combined federal and provincial net debt will pass $1.1 trillion at 11 p.m. ET on October 3, according to a recent calculation. But while some observers are sounding the alarm bells about the country's balance sheet, others say Canada's fiscal situation is not nearly as bad as it may seem.

The approaching debt milestone was flagged on Monday by the Canadian Federation for Independent Business (CFIB), which is calling for more aggressive belt-tightening measures to address the deepening fiscal hole.

"It's time for governments across Canada to get more serious about controlling and reducing debt," Laura Jones, senior vice-president of research and economics, said in a press release. "Being blasé about debt is the road to Greece and it's not fair to our kids because today's debt is tomorrow's taxes."

Noting that provincial and federal net debt has increased by $100 billion -- or 10 per cent -- in the last a year and a half, the CFIB estimates that total debt has surpassed $31,850 per person.

Per capita debt is highest in Quebec and Ontario, where it has hit $38,725 and $35,550 respectively, and lowest in Alberta and the Yukon, where it has reached $14,700 and $14,900.

But according to Chris Ragan, an expert in monetary policy at McGill University, when it comes to government debt, "It is misleading to look at the total amount."

Much more relevant to Canada's fiscal well-being, says Ragan, is the debt-to-GDP ratio, which he describes as "fairly low."

"If you look at debt as a fraction of GDP, what you're doing is you're scaling it to the size of the economy," he says. "GDP is basically the tax base of governments. So if you look at debt as a fraction of GDP you're getting an indication of the government’s ability to service that debt."

Despite rising levels of government debt, Canada's combined federal and provincial debt-to-GDP ratio was 57.9 per cent in 2010-2011 -- a far cry from the situation in Greece, where the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to surpass 160 per cent this year.

But Ragan says that an even more illustrative ratio is Canada's net government debt-to-GDP ratio, which accounts for existing financial assets. For 2010, he puts that figure at 44 per cent.

"We will be adding to our debt this year, but GDP has gone up," says Ragan. "So I think what we're going to be seeing is a [net] debt-to-GDP ratio that is probably close to stable maybe rising very gradually over the next few years, up to about 45 per cent."

Canada's current net debt-to-GDP ratio is less than half of what it was in the mid-1990s, when fear of hitting the so-called debt wall prompted drastic spending cuts.

"What we knew at that time was that debt-service costs were becoming very large, and financial markets were starting to pull a Greece on us," says Ragan. "They were starting to wonder, how the heck are we going to pay this back?"

The fiscal tightening and economic growth that followed brought Canada net debt-to-GDP ratio from 92 per cent in 1996 to less than 40 per cent in 2008.

"There was a dramatic turnaround," he says.

Though the CFIB did acknowledge in its release that net debt is not as high as it has been in the past, Ragan says he is concerned about using rising debt levels to justify tough austerity in the current economic climate.

"If they conclude from this that governments should start clamping down and raising taxes or cutting spending, I think this is probably a bad time to do that. Right now we have a recovery that's looking pretty sluggish," he says. "Governments should be back on track toward balance, but you don’t want to do it too aggressively."

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Canada's combined federal and provincial net debt will pass $1.1 trillion at 11 p.m. ET on October 3, according to a recent calculation. But while some observers are sounding the alarm bells about the...
Canada's combined federal and provincial net debt will pass $1.1 trillion at 11 p.m. ET on October 3, according to a recent calculation. But while some observers are sounding the alarm bells about the...
 
 
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10:03 AM on 10/05/2011
That's right folks. Time to tighten the belts on government spending, which is what the Harper (not Canadian) government was elected for right?
How about we start off by making M.P Tony Clement and every other official that has screwed the taxpayer to covey votes pay back every bit squandered monies. I'm not picking favourites here. Just tired of elected officials saying one thing while laughing at us through their private email accounts.
07:18 AM on 10/05/2011
Some expert claimed that they were going to "pull a Greece" on Canada in the mid-90s. Why then did members of the Canadian elite had to yell at Moody's to get it to threaten Canada's credit rating? They did this because Moody's said there was no problem at all. There was none as Canada's debt repayment was never in doubt as Canada has its own currency. The high interest rates were a policy choice as part of the zero inflation strategy. Drastic cuts as part of the rewriting of the social contract were politically impossible without the fake crisis caused by the monetary choking that the Bank of Canada had implemented for years. As the cuts were implemented, the destimulative effects of them were offset by loosening the Bank of Canada monetary chokehold. This is where was born the claim that austerity led to growth. Wrong. Austerity did not lead to growth, it was the monetary loosening that caused growth and the unemployment rate remained very high through most of this period , only coming down slightly a couple of years after the cuts had been fully implemented.
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Jay from Ottawa
sovereignty sale, 1.3T OBO
04:56 PM on 10/04/2011
Global debt clock. Have fun comparing nations; who owes what, who's in the biggest hole, who's in the green ? check it out !

http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock

Countries with the higest debt per capita for 2011
(keep in mind the year isn't over, therefore subject to change)
- Japan @ 86,262 per capita
- Iceland @ 42,714 per capita
- Ireland @ 38,614 per capita
- Canada @ 38,404 per capita
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valar84
12:48 PM on 10/04/2011
Stop with the comparison to Greece. The problem with Greece is that it doesn't control its own currency and it has to do internal devauation, basically go through deflation, to regain competitivity since Germany won't accept inflation in its own economy. Deflation is horrible for the economy and makes debt heavier, so prospects for the Greek economy are very poor.

Plus, since Greece has no central bank anymore, it cannot head off a bank run on its bonds by printing money through its central bank.

This is the problem that Greece is stuck with, and one that is nothing like Canada, which has its own currency and its own central bank.

It's not just about the debt size, if it was, Japan would be facing a bank run, but it isn't, in fact, its bonds are even more desired by investors' than Canada's or the US', you can see it by the very weak interest rates Japan can put on its bonds. Also, Spain and Ireland are following on Greece's footsteps, but their government debts and deficits were very small at the beginning of the financial crisis. But, like Greece, they face internal devaluation and have no central bank anymore.
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CanadaStan
Cogito ergo spud, I think, therefore I yam
04:26 PM on 10/04/2011
Say goodbye to the EU.
It was another dumb socialist idea pushed upon the people by the so called intellectuals that could not work because it didn't allow countries to control their own monetary policy.

Good riddance, and buy gold.
06:41 PM on 10/04/2011
It's not socialism that's the problem with the EU it's the de facto gold standard that the euro represents, a sound money paradise as far as the Right is concerned. It's conservatism that failed yet again.
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valar84
11:33 PM on 10/04/2011
Maybe the idea of the EU was popular amongst socialists, but its application was strictly technocratic liberalism. Knowing they would never be able to pass policies through the voters, right-wing technocrats forced liberalization and deregulation through the backdoor, thanks to the European Union rules and pacts.

Many governments were forced to implement right-wing reforms, to privatize state companies and open utility markets to the private sector because of EU rules.

Furthermore, the Euro has been acting as a gold standard and the ECB (the European Central Bank) is ruled by people who want to prevent any kind of inflation, no matter the cost. People who wouldn't be uncomfortable in the pre-1929 economical world of orthodox free-market liberalism. Jean-Claude Trichet, the current ECB head, said that he fulfilled his role impeccably, even as the EU is tearing at the seams and that a new recession becomes more and more likely.
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gx5000
Life's too short, be happy..
12:25 PM on 10/04/2011
Where do I send the cheque ?!?!
Seriously...If someone would offer to cut you out of the Tax system after you paid off your FAIR SHARE ?

(32,000 sure, but how's about indexing that a little by income and use ?, never mind corporation would fare worse with all their debt creation).
10:51 AM on 10/04/2011
Occupy Canada
10:22 AM on 10/04/2011
Yes Canada's combined federal-provincial debt hits 1 trillion- or about $30,000 per Canadian. The federal-state equivalent for the US is about $16 trillion - or about $50,000 per American. (http://www.usdebtclock.org/index.html) Yes, we are doing 'better' but neither country is doing well.

One of the causes for the rise in debt loads in both countries has been lower corporate taxes. There is a theory that lower taxes creates an incentive for companies to invest and create jobs - a theory that only holds when any other jurisdiction where the company could invest would not offer a similar tax cut - an assumption that is unrealistic. What actually happens is that the company shops the tax cut around, gets a comparative offer and then pockets the new found money. There is no change in effective demand, therefore no investment increase and all it becomes is a wealth transfer with lower relative tax revenues. This has been the North American pattern for the last three decades - I don't think we can afford much more of it.
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07:23 AM on 10/04/2011
The comparisons to Greece are false as Greece does not issue its own currency. Right now Greece is being destroyed by usury. Countries that control their own currency cannot have this problem of having to pay 20% or more.
02:31 AM on 10/04/2011
Anyone who believes that Canadians pay high taxes on wages should look at a report released last week comparing taxes around the world. One graph shows the amount of income and social security taxes on $100,000 of salary income; Canadians are in the middle of the pack at 30.3% (U.S. 24.3%). Of course, the USA is borrowing nearly 50% of everything the government spends. Even Harper's CONS haven't managed to be as irresponsible as Bush Jr. and Obama.
Another chart shows that the highest marginal tax rate for Canadians hasn't changed at all since 2003. The Canadian rich do continue to get richer.
http://www.kpmg.com/Global/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/individual-income-tax-social-security-rate-survey-September-2011.pdf
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piceaglauca
The picture says it all....
01:16 AM on 10/04/2011
What Canadian family thinks about let along talks about and for that matter really knows or cares about the "net debt GDP ratio"?

Most people live from pay cheque to pay cheque.
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piceaglauca
The picture says it all....
01:12 AM on 10/04/2011
Governments will continue to raise taxes. More and more people have lost their motivation to work. Many don't care about personal debt. You can't take it with you . Companies aren't hiring. Bank profits, giving out credit, and low interest rates are counter productive. CPP rules have changed. No increases in a positive way are offered. Penalties are assigned if you take it early. No base rate increase. People have to work longer. Debt loads are highe. Fewer people are saving and many will not have adequate savings. Defined pension plans are disapperaring. Private sector pensions are disappearing. Can you add to this doom and gloom?
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sdgreen
06:35 PM on 10/04/2011
Yes, I think you have hit the nail on the head! Governments at all levels need to stop spending for a while on major projects. This is certainly true at the Regional/Local government levels where spending has rocketed. Property taxation and fees are increasing at an alrming rate in just about every place in Canada. Provincial Governments are also not immune to the thirst in spending. Yes we need better healthcare, education and infrastructure, but I think a moratorium for about two years would be a good thing. Reduce taxation, let the people start saving/or spend a bit.

I think also there needs to be a sincere discussion on what level of government is responsible for what. Right now there is so much duplication, too many bureacrats doing the same thing to what end? We also need to stop this insidious downloading of costs from senior governments to local governments! Finally we need to rationalize the entire government taxation/fee structure, and we need to take a long hard look at the Federal Transfer Payments to the Provinces.
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07:05 PM on 10/03/2011
Mmany people seem to think that being fiscally responsible (not allowing government debt to skyrocket out of control) is an attack on the poor.

And in the short run, austerity can be hard on social programs.

But in the long run the best thing any government can do for the disadvantaged is to be fiscally responsible, for then social programs are sustainable. A bankrupt government can help no one.
08:26 PM on 10/03/2011
I agree, what the government should do is raise taxes on corporations and higher income earners - they have the ability to pay and social programs would not be affected. Harper's idea to cut corporate taxes is as you would say - fiscally irresponsible.
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CanadaStan
Cogito ergo spud, I think, therefore I yam
12:45 AM on 10/04/2011
Good grief...
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opprobrious
More speech. Less Flagging.
01:44 AM on 10/04/2011
What an oversimplified crock.
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11:00 AM on 10/04/2011
Actually it is fairly simple. Politicians and so-called intellectuals muddy the water with a lot of baffle-gab and excuses, abusing Keynes's economic theories along the way.
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turkeylurky
Just keepin it real........
06:45 PM on 10/03/2011
Nothing to see here folks --- move along.
McQuinty doubled our debt in Ontario during his current tenure (and increased taxes at the same time) and we're about to re-elect him for another term.
Stupid is as stupid does...
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LeftyNeoCon
What happens when extreme left and right combine.
10:17 PM on 10/03/2011
Considering the Ontario Conservatives have the biggest budget out of everyone, 6 billion compared to the Liberal 3.6 and NDP 3.3.

So who are your recommending as a better, more fiscally responsible premier, unless your actually asking people to vote NDP.
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canpete
06:24 PM on 10/03/2011
i don't owe anybody a cent and i resent that our government is not as responsible as a lot of canadians who save and spend wisely and keep out of debt....
06:54 PM on 10/03/2011
A state's finances have precious little in common with those of a household.

I trust you enjoy the neo-con Kool-Aid.
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dread
07:32 PM on 10/03/2011
That is total crap. Whether it is state finances, or personal finances you cannot continue spending more than you take in.
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canpete
10:48 PM on 10/03/2011
lead by example.......