Toronto Stock Exchange Sees 21-Per-Cent Drop In 6 Months, Ushering In A New Bear Market

Tsx Bear Market

The Huffington Post Canada   First Posted: 10/04/11 01:02 PM ET Updated: 12/04/11 05:12 AM ET

Investors are often warned about October, a month that is notorious for market slides and crashes, and this October is off to an early start.

With the Toronto Stock Exchange down some 240 points as of 11 a.m. ET Tuesday (having bounced back from a nearly 400-point slide at the opening bell), Canada's leading stock market has lost around 1,000 points in the space of a week.

As the Globe and Mail reports, the TSX is down 12 per cent since the beginning of September, and more than 21 per cent since the spring, having touched a 13-month low on Monday. That officially makes the TSX a bear market, which is defined as a sustained drop of 20 per cent or more.

The TSX has been getting hit particularly hard this week. While Toronto was down more than 200 points Tuesday mid-day, New York's Dow Jones had registered only a 150-point drop.

Behind Canada's market slide are growing concerns among investors that the developed world is sliding back into recession. Those concerns have sent oil and commodity prices spiralling downwards, and taken Canada's commodities-heavy stock markets with them.

The Canadian dollar -- also seen as a commodities currency -- has felt the brunt as well, dropping sharply Tuesday to nearly touch the 94-cent U.S. mark. The loonie has lost close to six cents U.S. since it dropped below parity on September 21.

"It has nothing to do with Canada," Neil Matheson, senior VP of investment strategy at Standard Life told the Globe. "The reaction is more about what's happened to the outlook for global growth."

John Kurgan, a market strategist at MF Global Canada, says the TSX slide is all about oil. "Crude oil really peaked in April, and that's when we saw the peaks in the TSX," he told the Globe.

Oil slid towards $75 per barrel on Tuesday, wiping out 15 per cent of its value, or about $13, since the start of September.

Responding to the unfolding crisis, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said Wednesday he's confident Canada won't slip into a new recession, but he added the caveat that he would not hesitate to run budget deficits to prop up the economy if it did.

In the U.S., Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sounded somewhat less optimistic, telling a congressional committee the U.S. economy "is close to faltering."

Bernanke said the Fed "is prepared to take stronger action to promote a stronger economic recovery in the context of price stability."

That suggests the Fed may be preparing for another round of quantitative easing -- increasing the amount of cash in the economy by buying debt held by banks. But his mention of "price stability" suggests he may be worried that more cash in the economy could lead to runaway inflation. And that, in turn, could mean a more tepid response to the crisis than some would like.

Bernanke said households are having a harder time finding credit, and he blamed the debt ceiling fight in Washington in August, the ongoing debt crisis in Europe, and government spending cuts for that phenomenon.

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Investors are often warned about October, a month that is notorious for market slides and crashes, and this October is off to an early start. With the Toronto Stock Exchange down some 240 points as...
Investors are often warned about October, a month that is notorious for market slides and crashes, and this October is off to an early start. With the Toronto Stock Exchange down some 240 points as...
 
 
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07:37 AM on 10/05/2011
Bears? Uh oh, Colbert won't like that.
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Felix99
Born to be mild!!!!
06:09 PM on 10/04/2011
Some years ago at a party, David Suzuki asked a banker: How much is enough??? The banker looked at him like he had just come from Mars and walked silently away!!!!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
skbull44
Check out Olduvai the novel
12:59 PM on 10/04/2011
Looks like Flaherty will do exactly what the U.S. has tried....artificially supporting the market (and banks) by running a deficit (really, we should be calling deficits what they are: IOUs to our children and grandchildren that we may never pay back). What we should be doing instead of kicking the can a bit further down the road is look at how we can employ our citizens without: taking on debt that will be difficult to pay off and destroying the environment (think of mining, forestry, oil sands, etc.).

Most of all, we need to challenge the worldview that growth is good. When we wear our growth-is-good-coloured-rose-glasses we end up creating a ponzi scheme that is destined to unravel. Growth cannot continue unabated, it is just physically impossible so why not admit that growth will not solve our world problems (after all, we've been trying this particular solution for some years now and its lead to increased poverty and a widening gap between the haves and have-nots), or even our local ones, and build a world that avoids growth in a neo-liberal sense of the word.

In the words of Men Without Hats..."I may not know what's right, but I know this can't be it!"
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Steve Lives
The Venus Project ... look it up
02:06 PM on 10/04/2011
Exactly. I don't have much hope for humanity. How can we think burning through our non-renewable resources in a ever increasing fashion is a good thing? Infinite growth on a finite planet is impossible. I favor the Venus Project as the solution to humanities growing problems, but I'll accept anything that works. Our current system is not working.
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Felix99
Born to be mild!!!!
06:15 PM on 10/04/2011
I think, Steve, that we won't have to worry about different solutions for very much longer!! We have poisoned our air, our land, and our water; and we have loosed the demon of climate change, so we have begun our fast run to hell!!!