Canada Income Inequality: How A Growing Earnings Gap Is Raising Home Prices For All Of Us

First Posted: 11/21/2011 3:58 am Updated: 08/07/2012 2:00 pm

This is the first installment of The Huffington Post Canada's new series Mind The Gap, exploring the growing rich-poor divide in the Great White North. Check out our special report on why you should care about income inequality, and our full coverage at the Mind The Gap big news page.

CALGARY and TORONTO — When it comes to the eye-popping housing boom that has seen house prices in Canada more than double in just 10 years, there are a few common explanations. Despite sluggish wages, bulls and bears alike generally cite some combination of easy credit, tight supply and, until recently, a relatively strong economy for opening the floodgates to an unprecedented housing binge, ratcheting up house values — and mortgage debt.

But there is evidence to suggest that income inequality — a trend that has been widening the gulf between Canada’s very rich and everyone else for the last three decades — may also be part of the equation.

For many of us, incomes have become so detached from house prices that any relationship between the two may seem unfathomable. This is particularly true in Vancouver, where the city's optimism about a once-sleepy outpost finally realizing its cosmopolitan dreams came face to face with the recession, prompting a festering suspicion that something had to give.

By mid-2009, with debris from the United States housing bust lodged firmly in the gears of the world economy and debt levels surpassing record highs, observers were beginning to question the stability of the most expensive housing market in the country, which dipped only briefly before resuming its steady climb.

It was amidst this anxiety-ridden atmosphere that a little-known Vancouver real estate blogger tapped out a controversial post titled "Invisible Hand of Income (Inequality)." Noting that average income figures "don't really tell you what is happening at the upper end of the distribution," the self-described Van Housing Bull argued that wealthy buyers could support the market — regardless of what the bears may have been prophesying.

"The bottom line is that the reason why prices are so 'high' is because there is, amongst the buying public, a huge and large income inequality," the unidentified bull concluded. "For what else could be driving the market to clear at these prices, given the hyper-connected infoglut [sic] of a world we live in?"

Commenters were incredulous, deriding the assertions as baseless. The post also conveniently fails to mention ballooning mortgage debt, arguably the most important catalyst in the market’s stunning ascent. But if you consider the central thesis on its own merit — that very high incomes are contributing to very high housing prices — it actually seems rather obvious.

The precise relationship between the growing income gap and rising house prices has yet to be studied in Canada. But some of what researchers have uncovered south of the border sounds pretty familiar.

In a paper he authored for the National Bureau of Economic Research in 2006, Duke University economist and public policy expert Jacob Vigdor found that income disparities in the United States have had a negative effect on housing affordability in tight markets, driving up the cost of everything from luxury homes to rents.

“When the rich get richer, they bid up the price of things that everybody else wants, too,” he told HuffPost.

A particularly insidious thing about a growing income gap, according to Cornell University economist Robert Frank, is the effect it can have on the psyche of buyers whose expectations don’t jibe with their finances. In low-interest, lax lending environments, it’s a scenario that can wreak havoc on the household balance sheet, as easy money makes resisting a sense of entitlement a much more difficult proposition.

“So you’re keeping up with the Joneses,” offers David Macdonald, a research associate at the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. “The problem is the Joneses have a lot more money than you do. They have a lot more money, and you have a lot more debt — that’s the trade-off.”

As Macdonald noted in a report last year, since 2000, housing prices adjusted for income have moved increasingly “out of their historical range” of three to four times annual median incomes, to ratios of between 4.7 and 11.3. This, combined with swelling mortgage debt, which last year surpassed $1 trillion, has prompted him and others to warn that Canada’s housing market is poised for a painful bust.

But whether the growth in housing prices constitutes a boom or bubble, income inequality — a growing imbalance that has been quietly reshaping the economic landscape for decades — may be partially responsible. Housing costs in recent years have moved well beyond what many Canadians can reasonably expect to afford, gnawing away at expectations and plunging households deep into the red. The growing gap is just another factor that might help to explain why.

(STORY CONTINUES ON NEXT PAGE)

More at Mind The Gap: Why You Should Care About Income Inequality.. What $350,000 Will Buy You In House Markets Across Canada.. 1 In 5 Vancouver Homes Now Sell For More Than $1 Million.. Full Coverage..


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Blodo
Time to build a better world
01:59 PM on 01/31/2012
"While we will not likely be influenced by the super rich, whose circumstances are very distant from our own, Frank notes that most social circles include relatively higher-income individuals, whose spending patterns can raise the bar for everyone else."

I like to think my spending habits lowers the bar for everyone else (Scottish heritage).
06:46 PM on 11/22/2011
http://vreaa.wordpress.com this is not my blog, but in it you will find lots of good material and analysis on the housing crisis in Vancouver and Canada.
06:21 AM on 11/22/2011
Housing affordability has improved in most of Canada in the last few years. Alberta, for example, has seen flat housing prices while incomes continue to go up.

Extrapolating national trends from regional markets is ridiculous. Vancouver has a number of factors affecting its property market that do not apply in any way to the rest of Canada, yet all the alarmism seems based on that one market, or how it's numbers have affected the national average. It's like saying the 2 zip codes in the U.S. that didn't see a price decrease in the last two years are somehow indicative of the health of the U.S. property market as a whole.

Increased interest rates (due to extreme over-leveraging), a change in Chinese government investment policies for its citizens (allowing them to invest more domestically, rather than in the "safe haven" of Vancouver real estate), stability in the financial markets (drawing capital away from real estate investment); all of these things will disproportionately affect Vancouver real estate, while having only a marginal effect elsewhere.

p.s. Cherry picking properties based on price/square foot while ignoring every other aspect of property value (such as location, lot size, condition, etc.) is pretty amusing.
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Ian Llangan
Your Invisible Sky Friend Is Morally Abhorrent
03:17 AM on 11/22/2011
Tsur Somerville, director of UBC's Centre for Urban Economics & Real Estate, says that...“No one builds crappy new buildings...”

This "expert" is delusional. Massive problems are already springing up in the jumped-up glass condos ubiquitous in the Toronto area. As these rabbit-hutches are presumably aimed at "middle incomes" (read: not rich), the ongoing deterioration of these buildings & the intensive remediation they will require just to remain standing is going to drain condo reserve funds normally used for such niceties as new hall carpets, HVAC upgrades, etc.

This is going to (a) create a re-sale nightmare form owners & (b) further squeeze the credit/finances of already over-extended buyers as they learn that their unit eventually will require $30-70K to repair (read: entirely new glass curtain walls etc.) & that their ownership share in the building requires that they chip in a further $100K(+++) to ameliorate the plethora of other, less visible, equally dangerous short cuts taken at building time, & the insurance premiums required to cover lawsuits from the relatives of glass-decapitated pedestrians below.

Not to mention that the vast majority of these buildings are ugly & are already beginning to look dated & worn, inside & out. Add to that a loose approach to owner-occupancy & you have hideous, ill-maintained tenement buildings.

No one builds crappy new buildings? Ha! In Toronto, that seems to be ALL that is getting built these days. Clearly Mr. Somerville hasn't toured Hogtown lately...
08:23 PM on 11/21/2011
Kind of interesting that when posting photos of what 325K buys in Canada, 2 of the hottest property areas-Regina and Saskatoon are ignored. Be nice if the writers got out of the office and into the field occasionally.
05:03 PM on 11/21/2011
Home ownership in canada is at 70% - the highest it has ever been. This stat alone seems to debunk the income gap theory. Quite simply, it's cheap credit and a herd of people chasing unsustainable returns (again).

The most informative part of the article is the womans prudent shock at what the bank is willing to lend her. Canadians are up to their eyeballs in dangerous debt and the banks are complicit. And why wouldn't they be when all the loans they give are insured by the government (read 'public') via the CMHC? Everyone has seen the studies showing how many people could not afford a rise in interest rates. Yes Virginia, there IS subprime lending in Canada. It's your neighbors and friends.

It looks like a classic bubble, it walks like a classic bubble ...
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dread
04:29 PM on 11/21/2011
The prices keep going up because people are paying the prices asked. If the middle income earners quit buying overpriced houses that they can't afford the prices will go down. It is supply and demand so if the demand stops the supply increases and the prices drop.
Thelonius
Lived in Middle East for
06:23 PM on 11/21/2011
Rethink your postion. Like food and clothing, housing is a basic human need. Rents are skyrocketing in tandem with house prices.
06:48 PM on 11/22/2011
really?
02:33 PM on 11/21/2011
Here's an alternate explanation for high house prices.

Prices are determined by supply, demand and the marginal cost of producing the last item. This means that in any segment of the housing market the price for all houses will be equal to the cost of manufacturing the last one built. If supply and demand brings the price below this figure no more houses will be built and if supply and demand takes the price higher more houses will be built until an equilibrium is reached.

In Canada the cost of building houses has clearly been increasing. Marginal cost explains why many people have made large sums by selling their older homes.

The income gap explains why rich people can continue to buy expensive houses while those people whose income is shrinking can't.

For people at lower-income levels to be able to resume buying homes one of three things would need to happen. Their incomes in real terms could increase, new building techniques or new cheaper sources of materials could be discovered so that houses could be built for less money or the lack of demand could result in a reduction in prices below marginal cost.

(The author of this comment has a web log on economics at https://economics102.wordpress.com/)
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Warren Yuill
Jesus Built My Hot-Rod
08:49 PM on 11/21/2011
Municipalities work in tandem with developers. The effort being to control the amount of serviced lots availible to ensure a level of population density that will carry the costs the city bears to provide services to that lot/subdivision.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Whistlejackett
Hey stop doing that
01:55 PM on 11/21/2011
Why did you throw my post away?
Thelonius
Lived in Middle East for
01:36 PM on 11/21/2011
One devestating consequence of the outrageous rise in the cost of housing and rents in Canada is the effect it has having on other parts of the economy. With people spending 40, 50,60,70, 80 and even 90 per cent of their pre-tax combined incomes on putting a roof over their heads, they have much less money to spend on other necessities such as food, clothing, etc. and of course, the occassional restaurant meal, etc. There are people living in $million homes who can't afford to go to a movie. In short, too much money going down one hole, thereby starving many businesses of financial oxygen, i.e., a dysfunctional economy en route to disaster. Remember, for a capitalist economy to survive, let alone flourish, no more than 30% of income should be spent on housing.
In my view, Canadians should prepare for hyper-deflation brought on by the necessity to liquidate assets in order to meet unmanageable financial obligations exacerbated by increasing job losses.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Leader Newworldparty
01:30 PM on 11/21/2011
Canada's Housing Bubble has now surpassed the US Housing Bubble of 2007.

Read:

http://www.newworldparty.org/2011/11/bubbles-extreme-maker-and-breaker-of.html
(Canada's Housing Bubble is explained in bottom half of article)
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TwoZeroOZ
02:25 PM on 11/21/2011
Can you please provide a source that is unbiased to this issue?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gitrdone
12:57 PM on 11/21/2011
I personally think the biggest contributor to high housing prices is the tight supply of land. I mean think about it, Canada is a huge country with only 32 million people, you would think land would be cheap! That is the biggest bubble if you ask me and it most likely would pop if the government would step in and put a stop to the ridiculous speculation on land prices.
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TwoZeroOZ
02:27 PM on 11/21/2011
The amount of land is not a factor in land prices. The amount of land in CITIES is the factor you should be concerned about. If we had 32 million people and 10x the cities, land prices would be 10x cheaper.
Simple.
12:08 PM on 11/21/2011
Hey you will probably pay for most of those homes! It is called the rich persons unemployment fund!Bankruptcy. Get all your assets into the home and relax.
12:06 PM on 11/21/2011
When an "average" Canadian can no longer afford to buy an "average" house... maybe it's sign something isn't quite working as intended...
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TwoZeroOZ
01:42 PM on 11/21/2011
Im an average Canadian, and I bought an average house.... Of course, I don't live in Vancouver, I live in Edmonton.
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Whistlejackett
Hey stop doing that
12:02 PM on 11/21/2011
Still waiting for the moderator to post my post :)