Canada's Housing Market More Overvalued Than U.S. At Its Peak, The Economist Says

Canada Housing Bubble Overvalued Economist

The Huffington Post Canada   First Posted: 11/25/11 12:45 PM ET Updated: 11/25/11 01:50 PM ET

Canada’s housing market is more overvalued than the US’s market was at its peak, and Canadians are carrying a larger debt burden than Americans were before the crash, a report from The Economist states.

By comparing house prices to rental rate and income averages, the magazine found that Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, New Zealand, Britain, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden all have housing markets that are overvalued by at least 25 per cent.

Canada’s housing prices are overvalued by 29 per cent relative to income, and by 71 per cent relative to rental rates, the study found.

As The Economist notes, these numbers don’t necessarily mean that Canada is bound for a painful housing market crash, along with all the job losses that entails. “Adjustment could come through higher rents and wages,” the magazine reports.

However, there is little indication that rents and wages are catching up with house prices.

StatsCan’s latest report shows Canadians’ wages are actually falling, once adjusted for inflation. And rental rates in some of Canada’s largest markets -- such as Calgary, Ottawa and Toronto -- have fallen year-over-year, all of which suggests the gap between house prices and rent and income continues to grow.

Optimists say Canada's market remains resilient, and if homes are slightly overvalued, the market is in for a soft landing. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., which insures Canadians’ mortgages, expects house prices to increase next year, albeit at a more moderate pace than has recently been the case.

Yet others argue that Canada can sustain current price levels. They point to Switzerland -- which has seen enormous increases in house prices and has a median house approaching $900,000, nearly three times Canada’s $350,000 -- as proof that well-off countries can sustain expensive houses.

But The Economist’s research shows that, even with the massive price hikes, Switzerland’s real estate market is still undervalued, relative to income and rent, compared to its long-term average. (Yes, the Swiss are just that rich.)

Another concern is the influence of foreign investors on the market. By some counts, as many as one in five Vancouver homes are being bought by investors from abroad hoping to turn a profit on the red-hot housing market.

"If you eliminate this segment, you get a semi-normally functioning market," CIBC economist Benjamin Tal recently told QMI Agency. "If for some reason we see foreign investors in Vancouver or in Toronto exiting, then that definitely will be an issue."

The Economist also noted that Canadians are now carrying a larger debt burden, relative to income, than Americans were in 2007 when the housing collapse began.

“Overvalued prices and large debts leave households vulnerable to a rise in unemployment or higher mortgage rates,” the magazine reported. “A credit crunch or recession could cause house prices to tumble in many more countries.”

WHAT $350,000 WILL BUY YOU IN THESE CANADIAN HOUSING MARKETS

Loading Slideshow...
  • St. John's, Nfld. -- $125 Per Square Foot

    This four-bedroom, two-bathroom custom-built bungalow in St. John's West End neighbourhood boasts hardwood floors, a covered sundeck and an oversized yard. With an asking price of $349,900 and 2,750 square feet of livable space, this spacious home costs approximately $125 per square foot.

  • Trois Rivieres, Que. -- $127 Per Square Foot

    This five-bedroom, two-and-a-half bathroom house features a double-width garage and a heated inground pool. At approximately 2,750 square feet and an asking price of $349,900, it works out to around $127 per square foot.

  • Winnipeg -- $160 Per Square Foot

    This spacious split-level home in southeast Winnipeg features four bedrooms and three baths, a stone fireplace and a jazuzzi in the master bedroom. It sits on a 142-foot-long, pie-shaped lot. At 2,182 square feet and a $349,900 asking price, it works out to around $160 per square foot. <strong>CORRECTION:</strong> <em>An earlier version of this slide incorrectly listed the price-per-square foot as $600</em>.

  • Red Deer, Alta. -- $248 Per Square Foot

    This five-bedroom, three-bath home features vaulted ceilings, a fireplace and a massive walk-in closet in the master bedroom. At 1,408 square feet -- this average-sized house on the prairie works out to $248 per square foot.

  • Montreal -- $250 Per Square Foot

    This two-story townhouse condo just east of downtown Montreal features three bedrooms and two baths, cherry wood floors and a terrace. At 1,400 square feet and an asking price of $349,000, this condo works out to $250 per square foot.

  • Burlington, Ont. -- $388 Per Square Foot

    This cozy bungalow on the edges of the Greater Toronto Area features four bedrooms, two baths and a long, 175-foot lot. Highlights include a granite countertop and newly finished hardwood floors. At a snug 900 square feet, this house is going for $388 per square foot.

  • Toronto -- $499 Per Square Foot

    This one-bedroom, one-bath condo in Toronto's Entertainment District features a balcony with a southeast exposure. In a sure sign the condo is outfitted with just the basics, the unit's sellers boast of its "brand name appliances" and "frost free refrigerator." At 700 square feet (including the balcony), it works out to $499 per square foot.

  • Vancouver -- $688 Per Square Foot

    This one-bedroom, one-bathroom corner unit in Vancouver's Kitsilano neighbourhood "shows much larger than the square footage," the realtor boasts. That's good, because at 508 square feet, this place is only slightly larger than some of the bedrooms and living rooms available in similarly-priced houses in other markets. The condo boasts "gorgeous mountain views," but it'll cost you -- $688 per square foot.

MASSIVE SPIKE IN MILLION-DOLLAR HOMES ACROSS CANADA

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Canada’s housing market is more overvalued than the US’s market was at its peak, and Canadians are carrying a larger debt burden than Americans were before the crash, a report from The Economist s...
Canada’s housing market is more overvalued than the US’s market was at its peak, and Canadians are carrying a larger debt burden than Americans were before the crash, a report from The Economist s...
 
 
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01:58 PM on 01/31/2012
Why do they recycle these articles?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Leader Newworldparty
06:12 PM on 11/27/2011
Read:

http://www.newworldparty.org/2011/11/housing-after-bubble-bursts.html

"Many Canadians believe that when this housing bubble bursts, they will have a soft landing, unlike the American's. They say that the outcome for Canada will not end in a disaster like it did for the U.S. economy, because Canada did not have AAA rated CDOs (Collateralized Debt Obligations), NINJA loans, etc.

True, Canada did not have these, but neither did Spain, Ireland or Japan. Nevertheless, Spain and Ireland are now worse off than the U.S. Here is a comparison:"
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JUSTBAKERS135
08:37 AM on 11/28/2011
The #1 difference is the lack of sub-prime. Canadians need 20% down to avoid CMHC, cannot abandon their mortgages, and in most cases LIVE in their homes.

My housing costs are $1400/mo to own vs. $1250 to rent the place in Toronto I bought.

The HIGH end of the market, Vancouver, luxury homes in Toronto, oil money locations, are inflating the national average.
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Leader Newworldparty
04:55 PM on 11/28/2011
Read:

http://www.newworldparty.org/2011/04/housing-most-manipulated-market-in.html

"TD Bank told me that for a couple of years, Canadian banks were giving out zero-down, 40 year mortgages to people who were one paycheque away from insolvency. These were Canada’s version of subprime mortgages. These seemed like a conundrum on the surface. Canadian banks are very conservative and risk-averse. Why would they give out so much money to such risky borrowers? I asked TD this question. TD explained that they were not taking any risk. Canadians are, through CMHC, which is owned by the government. CMHC insures these risky mortgages. If the borrower defaults, taxpayers would be on the hook. The banks do not take the risk, but get the reward. CMHC is Canada’s version of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. MacLean’s magazine now says the same thing in their article called "The CMHC: Canada's mortgage monster"."
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Leader Newworldparty
04:59 PM on 11/28/2011
Read

http://www.newworldparty.org/2011/04/housing-most-manipulated-market-in.html

"Example of 29 and 30 year old Canadian teachers

Gross Household Income: $136,000 (average Canadian household makes approx. $80,000)
Net (disposable) Household Income: $98,520 ($8,210 x 12)

Assets:
House: $426,000 (Bought in 2010. House prices are higher now.)
Cash: $1,300
TFSA: $300
RRSP: $1,800
Total: $429,400

Debts:
Mortgage: $410,380
Line of Credit: $64,130
Total: $474,510
Negative Net-worth: -$45,110

Household Debt to Disposable Income Ratio: 482%

Mortgage amortization is 35 years. If they have a $410,360 mortgage, that means that their down payment was 3.7 percent. This is Canada's version of the American subprime mortgage. This couple has 96.3% leverage. Many companies, with positive net worth and significant profits, try but cannot get leveraged anywhere near this."
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yishai ettebe
07:25 PM on 11/28/2011
People need to try and learn to live within their means. I know it is hard to, when pay is quite low. Just don't leave home, help out pay off your parents mortgage and what not.
Realist2011
beware false profits....
05:27 PM on 11/27/2011
Well, recognizing there's a problem is the first step. If you want to know exactly what kind of damage a housing bubble can produce, you only have to look at the US. So now you've figured out there's a problem. What steps are you going to take to solve the problem now, before it becomes catastrophic? Start looking in all the areas that took our economy down. Derivatives, bank/investment houses.......come on, it's staring you in the face.
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Mike Turner
04:16 AM on 11/27/2011
I guess this shows just how skewed things are on the West coast when the Median total income, by family type, by census metropolitan area is higher in St. John's where it costs $125 per sqft. to live whereas Vancouver has a lower median family income but costs $688 per sqft to live there. Makes absolutely no sense.
http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/famil107a-eng.htm
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Mike Turner
04:10 AM on 11/27/2011
How is it possible that on one end of the country it costs $125 per sqft and on the other it's $688 per sqft? Something just doesn't add up no matter how you look at it. I'm sure that salaries aren't that drastically different from one side of the country to the other
04:19 PM on 11/27/2011
The North-South divide seems to spring to mind,look at the price of houses from the midlands downover,now look at the price of houses in the Northeast,you can pick up a 2-3 bedroom house in the Northeast from 50-60 thousand and you say something does not add up.In some areas up here houses are going for 45 thousand,OH and dont forget that the government says there is no North-South divide.
If you want proof I will gladly pick you up half a dozen houses up here for a 5% cut in total and not one will exceed £50000.
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Mike Turner
12:46 AM on 11/29/2011
but what is the cities you are comparing?
03:52 AM on 11/27/2011
The stat that the housing values are 29% overvalued in relation to income is the key point to pay attention to. If average home buyer cannot afford to buy, then a loss of value is coming. Realtors are always optimistic, they make lots of money in commissions when the buying and selling is good. Don't listen to the land pimps.
ReaItors Are Liars
NAR is corrupt
05:06 PM on 11/26/2011
5 years from now, Canada will look very different. When dramatically lower housing prices arrive, and they will, the economy will accelerate.
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gwinegarden
She's an Arctic Wolf
11:30 PM on 11/26/2011
How so? If housing prices collapse, then huge numbers of people will be stuck with mortgages worth more than their houses as has happened in the US. In that case the economy could well collapse as well.
ReaItors Are Liars
NAR is corrupt
09:13 AM on 11/27/2011
The Current Problem: Millions paid grossly inflated prices for what has always been a depreciating asset.

The Solution: Dramatically lower housing prices.
02:34 AM on 11/27/2011
Just like the great depression of the 1930s???????

I don't think you are right. If it collapse, everything collapse.
ReaItors Are Liars
NAR is corrupt
09:08 AM on 11/27/2011
Low prices ALWAYS accelerate the economy.

Why is it that you people think grossly inflated housing prices are good? WHY?
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Add In Canadia
Egotism is a weakness
01:56 PM on 11/26/2011
The main thing that destroyed the American housing market was a lot of people buying homes they could not afford, a large chunk of which were deceived into buying a house with the intention of flipping it over for a profit (in the event they could not afford it) because they were told house values would always go up.

They turned their homes into credit cards essentially. So what was happening is you had people not even worthy of a $1000 credit limit, given access to 'credit cards' with a $100,000 limit. Which of course is sheer madness.
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Leader Newworldparty
06:24 PM on 11/27/2011
Read my 6:12 PM posting above.
10:31 AM on 11/26/2011
Three ways in which the Canadian housing market is not the US housing market and why they matter:

1. Banks are required to demand a 25% down payment for a standard first mortgage. This means that an ordinary first time buyer starts out with 25% equity which they had to accrue by saving

2. High ratio mortgages are insured by CMHC, which is like a mutual insurance company. People who take on a 90% mortgage have to pay the insurance premium to the CMHC which becomes part of the assets of the corporation and out of which loan losses get paid. The CMHC is worth some $26 billion, totally adequate to cover its potential loan losses.

3. We do not have mortgage interest deductibility in Canada. For this reason the single most effective financial strategy for a Canadian is to pay off their mortgage. Better even than saving for retirement.
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03:08 PM on 11/26/2011
#1 is incorrect. you can buy a house with 5% down, 35 years (dropped a few years ago from 40%)
06:04 PM on 11/26/2011
OK. Go to a bank. Ask for a standard, uninsured first mortgage with 5% down and a 35 year amortization and then get back to me.
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Mike Keohane
09:22 PM on 11/26/2011
You cannot legally obtain a non-CMHC insured mortgage from a fedarally regulated financial institution in Canada unless you have 25% down. The up-front CMHC insurance premium charged on a 5% down insured mortgage is a hefty 4% of the loan amount and a the CMHC refinance premium for those wanting to take "equity" out of their homes can be as high as 9% for self-employed borrowers without long term 3rd party income validation. If you default on a CMHC insured mortgage in Canada the CMHC automatically garnishees your annual tax refund until any loss incurred is paid back.
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03:09 PM on 11/26/2011
sorry, that was 40 years, not percent.
07:13 AM on 11/26/2011
If you do own one of these mortgage monster yuppie palaces, the time to get out is right now. Canada will not survive the coming global economic meltdown unscathed. Throw in Peak Oil, Peak Water, Peak Soil, an aging population with attendant sky-high health care costs, declining wages, climate change, and the precarious situation in the Middle East, and you have the recipe for a big meltdown.

The real economy, - i.e. businesses and individuals actually creating something of value and people buying those things - is broke (in every sense of the word). The cloud-cuckoo land that is the home of investment bankers and junk-bond brokers creates nothing, produces nothing that is real, and its illusory value will disappear. Meanwhile you will continue to hear happy noises from bankers and politicians alike, because they figure they got theirs, it's just the 99% of the rest of us that are scrooged.

Get out of the city, take your paper profits and buy some land that can actually grow food, and acquire the skills to do so. Meet your neighbours and start preparing your family and your community for a much smaller, tougher world.
ReaItors Are Liars
NAR is corrupt
08:29 AM on 11/26/2011
Why buy land today when you can buy later for 85% less?
08:40 AM on 11/26/2011
couple reasons, since all paper assets are likely to be depreciated, including equity in your existing home, where will the money come from 'after'? And, the skills required to grow and prepare and store food are not acquired overnight. I've been an organic farmer for 12 years, there is a learning curve. If you wait until the inevitable happens, you are too late to prepare.
07:07 AM on 11/26/2011
Housing prices arent the issue: Canadians don't have mortgages with escalating payment schemes, and huge baloon payments built in. If you can afford to pay when you buy, it actually gets easier over time, even if the market value of a home falls. Just dont expect to profit when you sell.....
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Rob Vann
Hope for the best,Plan for the worst,Take what cms
10:24 AM on 11/26/2011
You must be kidding .. Canadians are more in debt than Americans. Any upward move on interest rates or an economic slowdown will result in mortgage defaults, triggering a housing price collapse. Americans are still watching what ever is left of their savings slowly dribble away. Time to sell and buy after the plunge.
ReaItors Are Liars
NAR is corrupt
10:19 PM on 11/25/2011
The housing price collapse in Canada will be breathtaking.
11:24 PM on 11/25/2011
No it won't.
ReaItors Are Liars
NAR is corrupt
11:41 PM on 11/25/2011
You are a ________ (fill in the blank)

a) Iying reaItor

b) Sucker who paid a grossly inflated price for what is always a depreciating asset

Which?
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Vapula
Failure is not an option
10:16 PM on 11/25/2011
The housing market here isn't financed to people who can't afford housing. It's not like the US where loans were pushed onto people who had no ability to ever repay.
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Leader Newworldparty
11:59 PM on 11/25/2011
Read up on the CMHC:

http://www.newworldparty.org/2011/04/housing-most-manipulated-market-in.html

"TD Bank told me that for a couple of years, Canadian banks were giving out zero-down, 40 year mortgages to people who were one paycheque away from insolvency. These were Canada’s version of subprime mortgages. These seemed like a conundrum on the surface. Canadian banks are very conservative and risk-averse. Why would they give out so much money to such risky borrowers? I asked TD this question. TD explained that they were not taking any risk. Canadians are, through CMHC, which is owned by the government. CMHC insures these risky mortgages. If the borrower defaults, taxpayers would be on the hook. The banks do not take the risk, but get the reward. CMHC is Canada’s version of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. MacLean’s magazine now says the same thing in their article called "The CMHC: Canada's mortgage monster"."
07:10 AM on 11/26/2011
Sub prime mortgages have a priciple amount that GROWS as payments are made, and US style loans have escalating payment scales with those ridiculous ballon payments built in. Not the same.
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chuck nathaniel
Your micro-bio is pending approval
09:45 PM on 11/25/2011
In the greater Vancouver area, there is pretty much no way a young person could ever expect to own a home in their lifetime. They *might* get lucky enough to qualify for a loan on a half million dollar condo that they can never pay off, unless they are part of an incredibly small minority of high-wage earners. So, while their parents have sen their home value skyrocket, they have effectively forced their children out of the market.

This is an obvious imbalance that will absolutely have to be changed, as with every other area in the developed world that has seen housing values skyrocket out of proportion to wages.

And with so much Vancouver property ownership being tied to China's teetering economy, it seems ripe for 'correction'.

I wonder, how long until Canadians will realize they are not an 'exception' to what happened in the States, and are not separate from the problems with the world economy, despite the smoke the government has been blowing up our rears the past few years.
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Leader Newworldparty
12:04 AM on 11/26/2011
Bubbles make the older generation get rich off real estate at the expense of the younger generation who have to pay bubble prices and spend the rest of their lives paying off their mortgage.

China's Housing Bubble is unprecedented with their 64 million empty homes, all owned by speculators.

According to Forbes and Jim Chanos, the younger Chinese speculators who got in late to the party, are rioting at the real estate sales offices because their prices have come down.
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darter22
Very funny, Scotty. Now beam down my clothes.
08:05 PM on 11/25/2011
If no one believes there's a bubble, there's a bubble.