Conservatives Up In New Poll Despite Recent Troubles

Stephen Harper Poll Conservatives

The Huffington Post Canada   First Posted: 12/09/11 09:39 AM ET Updated: 12/09/11 10:25 AM ET

Despite Peter MacKay’s helicopter ride, admitting to spreading false rumours of an impending resignation of an MP in Montreal and the troubles in Attawapiskat, the Conservatives still hold a comfortable nine-point lead over the opposition New Democrats, according to a poll released this week by Abacus Data.

The online survey was taken between December 2 and December 4 in the midst of these developing stories. Yet, compared to Abacus’s last poll dating from mid-August, before the death of Jack Layton, the Conservatives are up two points to 40 per cent support.

The ability of the Tories to travel unscathed through scandal and bad press has been a major feature of their record in Ottawa since they were first elected to government in 2006. Stephen Harper’s party has continuously held a lead over its rivals with only a few fleeting interruptions since then.

It helps that more Canadians currently believe the country is headed in the ‘right direction’ than those who say it’s on the ‘wrong track.’ Optimism is highest in British Columbia and Alberta, where 57 per cent say Canada is headed in the right direction, while in Quebec 55 per cent think the opposite.

Quebec continues to be the only real problem area for the Tories. Their support in the francophone province is unchanged at 21 per cent. But Harper’s approval rating, at 40 per cent nationally (43 per cent disapprove) is at only 20 per cent in Quebec. Fully 55 per cent of Quebecers disapprove of the job the Prime Minister’s government is doing.

But while the New Democrats still lead in Quebec, their support has fallen to 36 per cent, echoing the drop in support that has been reported in other polls. The Bloc Québécois is holding steady at 26 per cent, while the Liberals are up two points to 13 per cent.

Nationally, the New Democrats are down only one point to 31 per cent since August, the same result they had on election night. The Liberals are at 18 per cent, far below the 28 per cent that has been recently reported. However, that poll was taken over different days so it is possible that Liberal support dropped in the two weeks separating the two surveys.

While the party appears stagnant, Bob Rae does have a leg-up over his opposition rivals. At 25 per cent, more Canadians have a favourable opinion of the interim Liberal leader than they do of the NDP's Nycole Turmel (18 per cent) or the Green Party's Elizabeth May (24 per cent). His unfavourability rating, however, is also higher than either Turmel or May.

Stephen Harper, meanwhile, has both a higher favourability rating (37 per cent) and unfavourability rating (43 per cent) than any other leader, partly owing to the great number of people who answered “neutral” for the opposition heads.

Interestingly, Harper and May have the highest favourability ratings amongst their own supports: 84 per cent for Harper and 80 per cent for the Green Party leader.

Rae, at 66 per cent among Liberal supporters, has a level of favourability within his own party that Michael Ignatieff never enjoyed, while Nycole Turmel, at 44 per cent, does not seem to be generating much enthusiasm from NDP voters. However, only seven per cent go so far as to say they have an unfavourable opinion of her. What they’ll think of the party’s next leader remains to be seen.

Éric Grenier taps The Pulse of federal and regional politics for Huffington Post Canada readers on most Tuesdays and Fridays. Grenier is the author of ThreeHundredEight.com, covering Canadian politics, polls, and electoral projections.

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Despite Peter MacKay’s helicopter ride, admitting to spreading false rumours of an impending resignation of an MP in Montreal and the ...
Despite Peter MacKay’s helicopter ride, admitting to spreading false rumours of an impending resignation of an MP in Montreal and the ...
 
 
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02:02 AM on 12/15/2011
There is another website that you can post comments on blogs where you can click thumbs up or thumbs down to the comment. That option has not been available for a week now and I wonder if Harper ordered it shut down......would not surprise me as the forums were not in his favor by a long shot.
06:17 AM on 12/11/2011
Quebec should lead the other provinces in separating from Harper, not to leave Canada but save it.
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01:23 PM on 12/10/2011
The US voters are leaning strongly towards another Republican controlled HOUSE and are slightly up in the SENATE but will not dominate. This is based on "Head to Head" polling for the seats and not a silly approval rating for congress overall.

2012 Senate Projections
Currently : 45 dem, 47 gop
Expected : 51 dems, 49 gop
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/2012_elections_senate_map.html

2012 House Projections
Currently : 172 dem, 214 gop, 49 toss-up. [218 needed]
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/house/2012_elections_house_map.html

It is VERY difficult to ever forget the fiasco, ObamaCare, that went through Congress. Further more, this will be shown to generations to come and asked, "What is wrong with what this women is saying?" :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KoE1R-xH5To

The complete disregard for the consumer right and choice, by order of the federal government, that ALL citizens much purchase something from a private corporation. The supremes are expected to rule against this for a number of reasons. Thus wiping out the most significant "goal" of this administration. This will amount to ANOTHER broken promise.
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/obameter/rulings/promise-broken/

The supporter that are still with Obama are left to defend him.
BritishColumbian
American/Canadian liberal
02:56 PM on 12/10/2011
What has this got to do with a poll Canadian poll?
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03:26 PM on 12/10/2011
Article title generalizes. "Conservatives Up In New Poll Despite Recent Troubles"
09:28 PM on 12/09/2011
conservative mp's run away from mic's like little girls , afraid of what the dictator might do
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MyTake
Release the Hydrogen Economy now!
09:23 PM on 12/09/2011
When did AOL HuffPo switch over to become the mouth piece for Abacus Data, the chief pollster for SUN Media who are the sole representative for The Corporate State of Canada.

And what the H is a ONLINE POLL! Was Abacus data mining Facebook and Twitter to come up with this trash?

They should know that democracy in Canada, similar to the U.S., was usurped on the day after John Kennedy was slaughtered in public. The rise of the Transnational Corporate State arose from that horrific event and they have gained control of the Media, Pollsters, Politicians and the Tax Code from which they derive their Corporate Welfare.

The Single "X" democracy model is dead and needs to be replaced with a "NONE OF THE ABOVE" option on all political ballots to enable the population-at-large to prevent bought-and-paid-for politicians from ever gaining office.

Then, and only then, we wouldn't have this "coiffed" haired man as head-of-state and fully under control of The House of Bilderberg!
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01:29 PM on 12/10/2011
Your not paranoid, they are out to get you.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
YankeeCanuck
dog
05:15 PM on 12/11/2011
This is about Canada. You did not read the article.
BritishColumbian
American/Canadian liberal
02:59 PM on 12/10/2011
The managing director, Danielle Crittenden, is married to former speech writer for George Bush, David Frum, and is the stepdaughter of Peter Worthington a cofounder Sun news.
07:22 PM on 12/09/2011
I'll give credit where credit is due, but you only need to see the haste at which they're shoving through this ridiculous omnibus crime bill, which will in no way reduce crime or rehabilitate thugs or those in need of mental health services. Canadians can't afford to get complacent simply because the ride hasn't been bumpy, especially with Teflon Man at the helm.
06:57 PM on 12/09/2011
I'm a separatist. I hate what Chretien did, because it had a key role in the outcome of the referendum. So all Canadians who are against separatists should be thankful to him because he saved your option.
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TwoZeroOZ
05:03 PM on 12/10/2011
I'm a separatist too.
Well, by that, I mean I also don't want to pay taxes but want to continue to receive all the benefits from the federal government.
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Kristopher Leang
training to take down the elite
06:28 PM on 12/09/2011
im all in favor of the Fascist Con party being a backbencher nothing in party politics where they belong but this is good news. a minority NDP would have support of the other parties enough so to get things done
yer
Stop the Alberta Taliban
05:52 PM on 12/09/2011
why are we listening to pollsters? They destroyed the last election by driving fear and loathing against what was becoming an orange surge of NDP votes. Had they been required by law to be silent during the election we would not have Harper. Had the media not been controlled by corporate ideology maybe Canadians would have read about the oil spill in Alberta just before the election.

Selective control is still control. In an era of Internet no Canadian needs these pollsters to know what's going on. This is just a means of control to make sure no one has to think about their country, nor their responsibilities as citizens.
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MyTake
Release the Hydrogen Economy now!
08:40 PM on 12/09/2011
Too much good logic here....good post.
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SkeeBee
Offending InFoxtrination Sufferers With Facts.
05:07 PM on 12/09/2011
And 60% of Canadians, those who managed to drop their Cheezy poofs at the couch long enough to go out and vote, voted AGAINST having this christian fundamentalist, corporate hack's party in power.
So of course, due to problems with the riding system, he was granted a Majority.
05:30 PM on 12/09/2011
The only way to have true representation by population is to get rid of the anti-democratic and outdated first-past-the-post electoral system. That way every vote counts and reduces voter apathy.

It will also make way for coalition governments where for a change parties are actually working together instead of constantly opposing each other.

In a true representation by population the seat distribution would be as follows:

Cons: 121 instead of 167
Libs: 59 instead of 34
NDP: 94 instead of 102
Greens: 12 instead of 1
Bloc: 18 instead of 4
yer
Stop the Alberta Taliban
05:48 PM on 12/09/2011
Sounds complicated. Rather than go into constitutional hell, all that needs to happen is a riding must have a majority vote, so you put a 1,2,3 on your ballot for a run-off (if necessary). It couldn't be simpler. That thus resolves the problem of marginal regional parties like the CPC from becoming majorities. Funny enough it still I would think have resulted in Liberal losses but the vote splitting would have instead gone for Elections Canada to run it off based on the 2 and 3 put on the ballot.

This solution cost? Nothing. People can count to three. Each number is different enough from the other to not be confused. And it wouldn't fundamentally change our political system, only enhance it. It's a win win
thephuqqer
not the chicken plucker.
04:41 PM on 12/09/2011
They must only be doing their polling in Alberta.
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04:09 PM on 12/09/2011
It just means the electorate has reached a new intellectual low.
04:41 PM on 12/09/2011
I wish I was smart like you and voted NDP or Liberal.
06:05 PM on 12/09/2011
You managed to spell Canada correctly so you have a good head start.
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PeachHipGirl
04:47 PM on 12/10/2011
we wish you were too
BritishColumbian
American/Canadian liberal
04:02 PM on 12/09/2011
David Coletto, Abacus' CEO, is the pollster for Sun News.
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montezaro
03:54 PM on 12/09/2011
Teflon is a non-stick material that emits a lot of poisons when heated or scratched.
03:50 PM on 12/09/2011
"Conservatives still hold a comfortable nine-point lead over the opposition New Democrats"

Heh, same pollster that gave the conservatives a lead in the Ontario election. At least right up to the last moment when they did an about face and went with the numbers the other polls had been saying all along (because BS aside it wouldnt be good for thier reputation to have thier polling numbers so far skewed from the actual results) Abacus Data gives results that their clients want to hear.