Nouriel Roubini: Canada's Economy 'Sound,' Housing Bust Not In The Cards

Nouriel Roubini Canada

First Posted: 01/18/12 06:37 AM ET Updated: 01/18/12 10:57 AM ET

He may be known as Dr. Doom, but when it comes to Canada’s economic outlook, Nouriel Roubini is surprisingly optimistic.

In an interview with The Huffington Post on Tuesday, the man famous for his perennially pessimistic -- and accurate -- predictions described Canada as a country with a relatively sound financial system, solid government balance sheet and a commodity sector that can withstand possible global economic risks.

“The resource orientation of Canada is one the sources of its strength,” he said. “While there may be a slowdown in China, the forces that lead to demand for commodities being high and rising -- urbanization, industrialization, population growth, per capita income growth in emerging markets -- I don’t think they’re going to change even if there are some bumps down the road.”

Though he concedes that “there is some frothiness” in the Canadian housing market, Roubini, who was one of the few analysts to the foretell the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market and the bloodletting that followed, says a significant correction isn’t in the cards on this side of the border.

He estimates that Canadian house prices could correct by as much as 10 per cent, a relatively bullish prediction compared to those who warn of a possible 25 per cent hit.

“If [a 10 per cent correction] were to occur, some pain would occur, but it [would be] manageable,” he said. “I don’t think that the bubble is so severe that you will have a real huge housing bust as long as the economy continues growing at reasonable rates.”

While he characterized Canada’s financial system as “sound” and its government and corporate balance sheets as strong, Roubini flagged rising household debt as a potential trouble spot.

“No country can be complacent in making sure that excessive debt of the household doesn’t create excesses and weaknesses in the financial system,” he said. “Everything is interconnected.”

Roubini also warned that Canada is not immune to external economic threats from the eurozone and the U.S., which he predicts will persist throughout 2012.

The co-founder of the New York-based economic consulting firm Roubini Global Economics and professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business spoke to HuffPost following his address to a business crowd at the popular annual Salon Speakers Series at Toronto’s Grano restaurant.

Demand was high for Roubini’s talk, prompting organizers to set up extra tables to accommodate the crowd of about 165, which included Natural Resources Minister Joe Oliver and former Ontario premier David Peterson.

Once considered a relative outlier, Roubini’s influence vaulted in the aftermath of the 2008 worldwide financial collapse, when he was transformed in the eyes of many into a prescient prognosticator.

Roubini took the opportunity to reiterate many of his characteristically dire prognostications, which in recent weeks have centred on everything from trouble with China’s growth model to a weaker-than-expected U.S. economy in 2012 due to stagnating wages, a “comatose” housing sector and mediocre job growth.

“We are surrounded by people like ourselves, but if you go out there [in] America ... there is a vast underclass of people who absolutely don’t have the skills to compete in this global economy,” he said. “Unless you do something about education, about skills, about human capital, these are people who are going to be lost forever.”

But throughout out the discussion, he challenged his reputation as a permabear, highlighting the bright spots along with the potential pitfalls of what he described as an “anemic” economic recovery in most advanced economies.

Despite deepening contagion in the eurozone, gridlock in the U.S. Congress and stubbornly high levels of unemployment, Roubini cited strong corporate balance sheets, continued demand from emerging markets and technological innovation as proof that “the future in the long run can be much brighter.

“It’s a mixed bag; it’s a glass that is half full, and half empty,” he said. “There’s certainly plenty of downside risk and things can go wrong, and I’ve been writing about them. But there are also a number of positive things about the global economy, so I think that it would be a fair assessment to think also about the things that can go right.”

This article was edited from its original version. It was updated to include Roubini's comments on the influence of U.S. and European problems on Canada's economy.

EARLIER ON HUFFINGTON POST: ROUBINI ON WHY IT'S TIME TO CLOSE THE FINANCIAL SUPERMARKETS

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5 ECONOMIC LANDMINES THAT COULD IMPACT CANADA IN 2012

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  • 1. RISING HOUSEHOLD DEBT

    Canada's household debt burden climbed to yet another record high in the third-quarter, prompting Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney to call it <a href="http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Mark+Carney+again+sounds+alarm+rising+Canadian+household+debt/5856418/story.html" target="_hplink">"the greatest risk to the domestic economy</a>." At 150.8, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/14/us-economy-debt-idUSTRE7BC2DY20111214" target="_hplink">Canada's debt-to-income ratio is now higher than in the U.S. or the U.K</a>. Meanwhile, household net worth fell, which, as many observers have warned, has made Canadians more vulnerable to adverse economic shocks.

  • 2. SLUGGISH CONSUMER DEMAND

    Though BMO's Doug Porter maintains that low interest rates and modest job growth should prevent household debt issue from becoming "a clear and present danger to the outlook in the year ahead," he predicts that the debt burden is likely to increase. Unlike in the U.S., Canada's consumer recession was "very mild," leaving scant room for growth in consumer spending, he says. "At best, we see consumer spending growing in line with income next year," he said. "We've actually pegged it a little bit below income growth next year ... at less than two per cent in 2012." (FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP/Getty Images)

  • 3. EUROZONE INSTABILITY

    When TD cut its 2012 outlook for the Canadian economy earlier this week to 1.7 per cent, the bank cited a deepening fiscal crisis in the eurozone as one of the primary factors. More bearish than BMO, which on Thursday held its expectation for Canada's GDP growth next year at two per cent, TD is forecasting "a deterioration of financial conditions and a significant European recession in the first half of next year." "<a href="http://www.td.com/document/PDF/economics/qef/qefdec11_can.pdf" target="_hplink">A deepening recession in the region will exert a significant drag on the global economy</a>," the bank maintained. "Canada will be negatively impacted through weaker commodity prices, confidence and export growth. Labour markets will also soften as a result." (ERIC FEFERBERG/AFP/Getty Images)

  • 4. CHINA LOSING STEAM

    The signs are abundant that the world's largest economy is cooling. Mounting local government debt and slowdowns in everything from industrial production to <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2011/12/09/china-economy-slows.html" target="_hplink">the housing market has led many to predict softer economic growth in 2012</a>. "<a href="http://www.npr.org/2011/12/13/143623874/after-boom-chinas-property-market-heads-lower" target="_hplink">Real estate is a locomotive industry that leads at least 58 other industries</a>," Cai Weimin, who runs a real estate think tank in Shanghai, told NPR. "Doomsday probably won't come true in 2012, but for the Chinese economy, 2012 will be a very tough year. (Aaron tam/AFP/Getty Images)

  • 5. GROWING INCOME GAP

    As Canada's rich-poor divide widens, some experts warn that the concentration of wealth at the top of the income distribution and stagnating wages for everyone else could be a drag on the economy. Though Canada's income gap is not as pronounced as in the U.S., Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives economist Armine Yalnizyan argues that the growing divide is bad for business all the same. <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/news/mind-the-gap" target="_hplink"><strong>Mind The Gap: Our examination of Canada's growing income divide</strong></a> "<a href="http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/39123--inequality-is-bad-for-business" target="_hplink">Real growth in purchasing power has been restricted to a small fraction of Canadian consumers</a> in what is already a small market," she maintained in an op-ed in Canadian Business magazine. "Throttling aggregate demand slows the economy for everyone." Anne Golden, president and CEO of the Conference Board of Canada, echoes this sentiment. "Growing inequality distorts consumer patterns," she told The Huffington Post in a recent interview. "Most businesses, except maybe for Porsche [dealerships], rely on rising purchasing power of the many, not the few, to deliver growth and profits." (ADRIAN DENNIS/AFP/Getty Images)

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He may be known as Dr. Doom, but when it comes to Canada’s economic outlook, Nouriel Roubini is surprisingly optimistic. In an interview with The Huffington Post on Tuesday, the man famous for h...
He may be known as Dr. Doom, but when it comes to Canada’s economic outlook, Nouriel Roubini is surprisingly optimistic. In an interview with The Huffington Post on Tuesday, the man famous for h...
 
 
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10:05 AM on 01/20/2012
http://nourielroubini.blogspot.com for daily news and interviews of Dr doom Nouriel Roubini
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
piceaglauca
The picture says it all....
09:05 PM on 01/18/2012
Where really do we sit?

"The sharp drop in the stock market cut Canadian's net worth by $4,600 per household in the third quarter, Statistics Canada reported Tuesday.

"Although residential real estate assets increased, this was more than offset by the decline in the value of household holdings of equities (including mutual funds) and pension assets," the agency said.

Meanwhile, Canadians continued to borrow, driving household debt per capita up by $600 from the second quarter and $2,200 over a year, to $46,100.

Total household debt increased to $1 trillion in mortgages and $448 billion in consumer credit debt."
I reply to my friends and followers.
02:53 PM on 01/18/2012
Excellent news! Once the world economy collapses Canada will RULE the wasteland! While the population of other countries have to carry what they own on their backs we in Canada will have shopping carts to push around the few meager possessions we have left!

Actually it is useful for people to hear reports like this given the amount of power the stock market has in our economy and the fact that by and large the stock markets are self-fulfilling prophecies driven not by facts but by the vague fears and opinions of investors about what *might* happen.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Colin Speth
A Claymore for your thoughts
02:32 PM on 01/18/2012
Somewhere Paul Martin is taking credit for this.
11:32 AM on 01/18/2012
All I keep hearing from the Left is doom and gloom, Harper is gonna do this, Harper is gonna do that, Harper is gonna cancel Medicare, Harper is gonna take away all the free money, Harper is gonna boil the poor in oil, and on and on...

Face it, socialists, the reason we can afford our gigantic social safety net is because of the conservative policies of the previous Liberal govt and current Conservative govt.
11:41 AM on 01/18/2012
Wow, there is free money in Canada? I had no idea. Where do I get some of that "free" money?
Also, we don't have Medicare in Canada. We have a universal single payer system, administered by the Provinces.
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Drak
02:10 PM on 01/18/2012
The social saftey net was put in place before the Harper government.
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Whistlejackett
Hey stop doing that
11:12 AM on 01/18/2012
This guy is a part of the Harper Campaign to clear the way for Enbridge. The constant economic approvals of Canada's financial position, really is not necessary is it? The more stroking for Harper the more he hopes to lay the foundation for a Gateway pipeline.
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Mr e MaN
Political Atheist
10:47 AM on 01/18/2012
He missed the 2008 bust in the states so he is hardly credible on this front, though I generally like his themes

-.Canadianan 153% in debt
-Housing at multiples that cannot be sustained (Vancouver 11x Income)
-Ballooning nation debt as Harper gives your money to corporation in the form of tax breaks, then wants to slash the social saftey net.
-Historic low interest that has now where to go but UP

What could possibly go wrong?
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CanadaStan
Cogito ergo spud, I think, therefore I yam
03:27 PM on 01/18/2012
The opposition parties are the ones who demanded we go into deficit.

And Harper has cuts planned to reduce the deficit, but you are going to reflexively oppose them...

yawn
03:58 PM on 01/18/2012
Harper prefers unlimited spending on behalf of foreign imperial adventures and cynically attempts to hide his hostility to any spending in ways which benefit the Canadian population.
12:17 AM on 01/19/2012
Harper and the CONservatives created the largest federal deficit in Canadian history - even beating the previous records established by Mulroney's CONservatives - by cutting the GST BEFORE the worldwide financal collapse caused by American CONservatives (see the pattern). No opposition party supported wasting $1,000,000,000 on Harper's weekend G8/G20 gazebo party. No opposition party would support the CONservative handouts to business that have increased the record deficits. Mike Wilson had plans to reduce the last CONservative record deficit - which wasn't fixed until Paul Martin and the Liberals.
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piceaglauca
The picture says it all....
10:44 AM on 01/18/2012
Though he does not speak directly to consumer debt ("Canada's household debt burden climbed to yet another record high in the third-quarter, prompting Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney to call it "the greatest risk to the domestic economy." )he needs to reflect on recent rate drops in mortgage rates which will bring into the market a number of people who would not normally try to qualify for a mortgage. Note also the small print regarding options. The rising accumulation of credit card debt combined with new buyers will certainly be the cutting edge to any market adjustment being anyhwere from 10% to 25%.

As for your thoughts I can only to reply to friends and fans.
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Norma Ward
09:14 AM on 01/18/2012
As shown in this article, Canada's house price to income multiple is at record highs with the multiple reaching just below 5 compared to a historic norm of between 3 and 3.5:

http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2011/12/bank-of-canada-and-canadas-household.html

In combination with record high household debt, the wheels could come off should interest rates rise to historic norms.
08:37 AM on 01/18/2012
I would have to disagree with Mr. Roubini when he says Canada's government and corporate balance sheets are strong,

Check out the following link (3rd line down) from Statistics Canada which says at the end of September 2011 Canada's total government gross debt was 1852 billion$ (1.852 trillion$), which is up 109 billion$ over the previous 12 month period.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/111213/t111213a4-eng.htm

Also check out the following link from the Bank of Canada which says at the end of November 2011 Canada's total business credit was 1301 billion$ (1.301 trillion$), which is up 71.6 billion$ over the previous 12 month period.

http://credit.bank-banque-canada.ca/businesscredit

(If anyone is interested Canada's latest household credit statistics can be accessed by clicking on the "household credit" link which is at the top of the page of the last link in my post)
12:13 PM on 01/18/2012
The figure of $1.852 Trillion only states the liability side of the Federal government's balance sheet. When the assets side of the ledger is included , ( as it should be) Federal Net debt is $584 Billion(book value), and is a figure that economists generally consider low by international standards.

I think that we can rely on economists with the stature of Nuriel Roubini to be better informed than some of the totally uninformed comments on this page. !!
08:22 PM on 01/18/2012
The 1.852 trillion$ in my post refers to the total government debt in Canada. The Federal Government gross debt at the end of Sept. 2011 was 842 billion$ (line 4 in the Statistic Canada link).

I would have to agree with Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney when he stated on Sept. 30, 2010 "While asset prices can rise or fall, debt endures".

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=l&c

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39709743/Japan_Goes_From_Dynamic_to_Disheartened

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43395857/US_Housing_Crisis_Is_Now_Worse_Than_Great_Depression

You've got a little more faith in the ability of economists than I do.

The following quote is taken from an article in the Washington Post on Oct. 27, 2005:

Ben S. Bernanke does not think the national housing boom is a bubble that is about to burst, he indicated to Congress last week, just a few days before President Bush nominated him to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.

U.S. house prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years, noted Bernanke, currently chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, in testimony to Congress's Joint Economic Committee. But these increases, he said, "largely reflect strong economic fundamentals," such as strong growth in jobs, incomes and the number of new households.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/26/AR2005102602255.html
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gravescanada
08:23 AM on 01/18/2012
Why do they pretend that the 2008 crash was only foreseen by a few? My wife is a Canadian Citizen as are my children. I moved them from Missouri to Canada in 2005. With fuel prices through the roof, housing prices skyrocketing it was obvious to me that their was no possible way the USA could sustain such obviously false growth. Now I sit here, in Canada and I tell everyone this, we are headed for a crash, its not a matter of if but of when and how bad will it be. Since moving here I have seen the town homes I live in go from 149,000 dollars to 190,000 dollars. That is not sustainable in any way. When you add in the fact that Prime Minister Harper is doing here in Canada what the USA did prior to 2008, cut boost military spending, cut regulations, cut taxes, get tougher on crime, its like Harper WANTS us to crash.
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Planarama
Common sense will one day prevail.
09:44 AM on 01/18/2012
It's simple, he does. If the economy tanks and the government is financially in a hard spot, mostly because of corporate tax cuts, Harper will use this as THE excuse to gut our social programs; they won't raise corporate taxes to close a deficit gap.

The government is already trying to link health care funding to GDP growth.

Yes, let's link human health to a statistic that can be destroyed by stupid bankers! /sarcasm.

Money is a human construct, in other words, it is simply paper. It is the same stuff as the paper you find in a Monopoly game, it just looks fancier. It is, in real terms, worthless. You can't build anything with it and you can't eat it.

Why human civilization is so obsessed with paper is one of the greatest scams in history.

We will eventually learn the hard way, I guess.
09:50 AM on 01/18/2012
I think the term you're looking for is "fiat currency".
10:14 AM on 01/18/2012
You reminded me of a Cree proverb: "Only when the last tree has died and the last river been poisoned and the last fish been caught will we realise we cannot eat money."

Good luck to us all.
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piceaglauca
The picture says it all....
10:45 AM on 01/18/2012
Are you a dual citizenship guy? Flip flop flip flop.
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gravescanada
01:04 PM on 01/18/2012
I am a Husband and Father that took his family to live in a nation that most closely reflected, oh hell we should have never left Canada in the first place, but in 1994 my wife wanted to live in the USA as she had no idea what it would be like.