Tomorrow, New Democrats will choose between seven candidates and seven different futures for their party. With one recent poll showing the NDP neck-and-neck with the governing Tories, their decision could not be more important.
While all the candidates are clearly part of the same political tradition, they do all bring different things to the table.
LIVE BLOG: UPDATES FROM THE CONVENTION FLOOR
Nathan Cullen has the energy and charisma that helped Jack Layton bring the party into the mainstream, and he would be a strong leader in British Columbia, a province in which the New Democrats can make gains in 2015. But Cullen’s plan for the NDP to co-operate with the Liberals and Greens could cause a rift in the party, and there is little indication the Grits would go for it.
Convention Coverage, HuffPost Style: The Huffington Post Canada brings you comprehensive coverage of the NDP leadership convention in Toronto, with photos, behind-the-scenes video, opinion and reporting from the convention floor.Follow us at @HuffPostCanada, on our Ottawa Bureau Chief Althia Raj's Facebook Page, on our NDP leadership site, and on our politics page and our front page. Friday, we cover candidate speeches and a tribute to Jack Layton. Saturday morning, we follow the rounds of voting that will end with the new leader.
Neither Martin Singh nor Niki Ashton is likely to win, but Ashton has shown herself deserving of a frontbench position and an important role in the party going forward.
One candidate the NDP’s frontbench has sorely missed is Paul Dewar, who best embodies the party’s progressive character. Dewar is a good compromise candidate that Canadians may warm up to as an honest and forthright leader. But Dewar’s profile is not very large outside of his Ottawa home, and his French is the weakest in the group. The NDP needs to hold on to its Quebec seats if it is to have any hope of even maintaining Official Opposition status after 2015, so Dewar is definitely one of the riskier options.
Peggy Nash, who has strong support from labour organizations throughout the country, might be an ideal choice to lead the party if the relationship between labour and the federal government continues to deteriorate. The Public Service Alliance of Canada are likely to fiercely oppose next week’s budget and the Conservatives have shown little patience with striking Air Canada pilots.
But this is the sort of battle the Conservatives would love to fight, allowing them to frame the NDP as the party of big labour. And Nash, who comes from the more left-wing side of the party, may have some trouble attracting centrist voters into the NDP fold. She has also gained little traction in Quebec, despite speaking good French skills.
Brian Topp, who was born and raised in Quebec and is the most bilingual candidate after Thomas Mulcair, has had difficulty making inroads in the francophone province as well. However, Topp tends to poll above his other rivals in the province and may be able to increase his stature in in the province over the next few years. He has promised to seek a seat in Quebec if chosen leader, which would give him some legitimacy as a voice for Quebecers.
Topp is also seen as a good organizer within the party, has strong roots in the west (where the NDP needs to grow if it is to form government), and has the support of some of its elder statesmen. But former leader Ed Broadbent’s recent negative comments about Mulcair would likely cause a rift between the Topp and Mulcair camps should Topp be chosen leader, and the former party president has proven to be somewhat stiff on the hustings.
Against an unapologetic Conservative government, some may not see Topp as tough enough to go toe-to-toe with Stephen Harper. This was undoubtedly a problem for Stéphane Dion and Michael Ignatieff when they were leader of the Liberals. Their political points, often awkwardly delivered, simply did not hit home.
This should not be a problem for Thomas Mulcair. He has a long history of battling it out with sovereigntist opponents in Quebec as a member of the Liberal Party in that province. Polls show he is the best option from a Quebec perspective, as he alone could boost the party back to the 40 per cent mark in the province, while his chief rivals might immediately bump the party down to 20 per cent or lower.
Mulcair is rich in experience and political instinct, absolute necessities for battling a well-oiled Conservative machine. He has proven himself capable of finding support in every province throughout the country and has the best chance of attracting support from centrists.
But Mulcair has some enemies within the party who see him as new to the NDP and unfamiliar with the party’s roots and core values. He has the reputation of being a bit of a loose cannon and could be the cause of an eventual schism in the party in his quest to form the first NDP government.
Thomas Mulcair gives the NDP the best chance of marginalizing the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois, defeating the Conservatives and bringing the NDP to the next level. But the question of whether that next level would be recognizable to the old guard of the party is why candidates like Brian Topp, Peggy Nash, and Paul Dewar, who all have good chances of being successful in their own right, cannot be discounted in this race.
LIVE FROM THE NDP CONVENTION FLOOR
Thank you for joining us. Lots to review here:
Convention Coverage, HuffPost Style: The Huffington Post Canada brings you comprehensive coverage of the NDP leadership convention in Toronto, with photos, behind-the-scenes video, opinion and reporting from the convention floor.Updates at @HuffPostCanada, on our Ottawa Bureau Chief Althia Raj's Facebook Page, on our NDP leadership site, and on our politics page and our front page.
DELEGATES LEAVE THE HALL
After a long two days, delegates file out of convention for good
Mar 24, 2012 | Source: Keek.com
| @ RyanPainterShow : It is AMAZING how quickly ppl have ALREADY written off @ThomasMulcair based on his first speech. You'll see, is all I have to say #ndpldr |
| @ alishasawhney : Muclair represents the new face of the NDP in Canadian politics. Was his lack of vigour in his speech just due to exhaustion? #ndpldr |
| @ seleross : I only have twitter over here. Terrible reviews of speech; no idea what was actually said. #ndpldr |
| @ tomhawthorn : No question. Fiasco of a victory speech by Mulcair. Wonder who'll tell him? #ndpldr |
| @ itsabbeyk : After 7 months of campaigning and 12+ hours of coverage on CBC, it's finally over and an ex-Liberal is leading the NDP. #ndpldr |
| @ freethephoenix : Wonderful speech, Mulcair!! And Congratulations!! Don't heed the haters :) We'll make Canada better for them, too. #ndpldr |
| @ RayCecile : Mulcair's speech didn't say anything about putting a sound policy in place that will help business' create jobs #cdnpoli #ndpldr |
| @ SimStr1 : No fire in @thomasmulcair. We need fire from the left and @ElizabethMay has it. We'll see who inspires youth! #ndpldr |
| @ ocean_raven : Rethinking my support of the NDP now that Mulcair is in the leadership role. I do not trust him. #ndpldr |
| @ evansolomoncbc : Thomas Mulcair says "in order to have first ndp fed govt our party must reach beyond traditional base" #cdnpoli #ndpldr |
| @ IvisonJ : "Our future is limitless, if we get our priorities right" - Mulcair. He made that line sound like he was ordering pizza. #ndpldr |
"From medicare to public pensions, these values are reflected in the institutions we built, institutions we risk losing under the polices of the current government."
| @ Snafulp : @HuffPostCanada There goes Jack Layton's dream and hardwork down the drain..This man is a wolf in sheep's clothing..I am so sad today |
"Democracy can't just mean the right to vote. Democracy must also mean .. knowing that your vote matters."
Mulcair: (paraphrased) The youth are so turned off by today's politics they won't vote. It's not that they don't care, it's that they don't trust their vote will make a difference.
Mulcair talks about the people he met in community centres across the country:
"The voices of those Canadians should not only be heard, they should be at the centre of our national agenda."
| @ rachelmendleson : Broadbrent joins Mulcair, other candidates on the stage #ndpldr http://t.co/qrY9yq5N |
To my mother, my mom, who with her brothers and sistgers is up north watching us, hello!
| @ althiaraj : Thomas Mulcair leaves bleechers to come give his speech to #ndpldr candidates http://t.co/8MiiVF0M |
It's no secret Thomas Mulcair has some unifying to do. Expect to hear much about this in the speech, which will happen momentarily
(CP) Montreal MP Thomas Mulcair has been chosen to succeed Jack Layton as leader of the federal NDP.
Mulcair claimed 57.2 per cent of the vote in a fourth-ballot victory over chief rival Brian Topp, who claimed 42.8 per cent.
The two front-runners were the last men standing after a day-long voting marathon that was plagued by online delays, the result of an attempted cyber-attack on the party's website.
Long-shot candidate Nathan Cullen persisted until the third ballot, outlasting rivals Peggy Nash, Paul Dewar, Niki Ashton and Martin Singh.
Éric Grenier taps The Pulse of federal and regional politics for Huffington Post Canada readers on most Tuesdays and Fridays. Grenier is the author of ThreeHundredEight.com, covering Canadian politics, polls, and electoral projections.
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The Huffington Post Canada | By Eric Grenier Posted: 03/22/2012 10:39 pm Updated: 03/23/2012 6:56 pm