NDP Tied With Tories In New Poll After Thomas Mulcair Takes Reins

The Huffington Post Canada  |  By Posted: 03/30/2012 9:06 am Updated: 03/30/2012 10:02 am

Canadians are warming up to the New Democrats now that Thomas Mulcair has taken over the reins, with the party neck-and-neck with the Conservatives and way ahead in Quebec in a new poll.

The survey from Forum Research was conducted March 26-27 and polled 1,638 Canadians, capturing public opinion after the March 24 leadership convention and during Mulcair’s first two days as opposition leader in the House of Commons.

PHOTOS: BEST OF NDP CONVENTION

The New Democrats are tied with the Conservatives for the lead at 35 per cent support. Though a pre-convention poll suggested that the two parties were tied at 30 per cent, this Forum survey indicates that the NDP has pulled even with the Conservatives not because of Tory losses, but because of NDP gains.

Indeed, the Conservatives have barely moved since Forum was last in the field on March 2. The Tories have slipped only two points, compared to the seven point gain for the New Democrats.

PHOTOS: NDP REMEMBERS JACK

It is the Liberals who have suffered, dropping six points to only 19 per cent support, the same share of the vote the party took in the 2011 election. Thomas Mulcair wants to expand the party’s base toward the centre, and he appears to be doing just that.

The New Democrats are up throughout the country, but the most important gain is in Quebec. For weeks, polls have shown the NDP and Bloc Québécois vying for top spot in the province with roughly 30 per cent support each. As Quebec is home to 58 of the NDP’s 102 MPs, a drop of such importance from their election result of 43 per cent spelled disaster for the party.

But with Thomas Mulcair as leader, the New Democrats are back to 40 per cent support in the province, well ahead of the Bloc. However, the Bloc has held steady, even increasing support to 28 per cent from 23 per cent in early March. Again, the Liberals have taken a step backwards, dropping back to 15 per cent support. They were at 26 per cent in Quebec in Forum’s last survey.

This is not particularly surprising. Though the Bloc had gained in the polls during Nycole Turmel’s interim leadership of the NDP, the Liberals had made the most impressive rebound, almost doubling their 2011 election result in the province. But now that the NDP has a well-known Quebecer and former provincial Liberal as leader, it would appear federalist voters who flocked to the Liberals during Turmel’s tenure have returned to the NDP.

But the good news does not stop there. This poll also puts the NDP ahead in British Columbia and the Prairies, two important growth regions for the party come 2015, and in second place in Ontario.

However, this is only the first poll since Thomas Mulcair has become NDP leader. Other surveys will be needed to confirm that the NDP has indeed moved into a close race with the Conservatives. A honeymoon for the new leader is also to be expected, and how voters will feel about the NDP in the coming months and years could change drastically. But in his first week on the job, Thomas Mulcair is off to a good start.

Éric Grenier taps The Pulse of federal and regional politics for Huffington Post Canada readers on most Tuesdays and Fridays. Grenier is the author of ThreeHundredEight.com, covering Canadian politics, polls, and electoral projections.

PHOTOS: THOMAS MULCAIR

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  • Thomas Mulcair

    NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair comments on the federal budget in the Foyer of the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa Thursday March 29, 2012. If there was any doubt that Thomas Mulcair's political universe revolves around Quebec, it was dispelled by his response to Thursday's federal budget. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld)

  • Thomas Mulcair

    NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair addresses the Economic Club of Canada in Ottawa, Thursday April 5, 2012. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Fred Chartrand)

PHOTOS: BEST OF NDP CONVENTION

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PHOTOS: NDP REMEMBERS JACK

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  • Remembering Jack

    (CP)

  • Remembering Jack

    (CP)

  • Remembering Jack

    (AP)

  • Remembering Jack

    (AP)

  • Remembering Jack

    (AP)

  • Remembering Jack

    Thousands gathered outside Roy Thompson Hall in Toronto, Ontario, on August 27, 2011 to watch the broadcast of the state funeral of Canadian opposition leader Jack Layton. Layton died August 22. (GEOFF ROBINS/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Remembering Jack

    Flowers are left in tribute for former Canadian opposition leader Jack Layton in front of the Parliament building on August 23, 2011 in Ottawa, Ontario. Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said Monday he regrets that he never 'jammed' with his friend and longtime rival, opposition leader Jack Layton, who died overnight of cancer at age 61. 'Now, as you know, Jack was a musician. He was quite a natural one at that,' Harper said outside the House of Commons. Jack Layton, whose popularity and political skill helped his New Democrats surge past the Liberals to become Canada's official opposition party. Layton died August 22 of cancer. He was 61. (MICHEL COMTE/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Layton's Funeral

    The coffin containing NDP Opposition Leader Jack Layton is pictured during his state funeral in Toronto August 27, 2011. More than 2,000 people turned out Saturday, August 27, 2011 for the state funeral of Canada's former opposition chief Jack Layton, who died earlier this week of cancer -- a tribute celebrating his message of hope. Layton, whose New Democratic Party (NDP) surged past the Liberals in elections earlier this year to become Canada's official opposition, lost his battle with cancer on Monday. He was 61. (CHRIS WATTIE/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Layton's Funeral

    The coffin containing NDP Opposition Leader Jack Layton is carried away during his state funeral in Toronto August 27, 2011. More than 2,000 people turned out Saturday, August 27, 2011 for the state funeral of Canada's former opposition chief Jack Layton, who died earlier this week of cancer -- a tribute celebrating his message of hope. Layton, whose New Democratic Party (NDP) surged past the Liberals in elections earlier this year to become Canada's official opposition, lost his battle with cancer on Monday. He was 61. (CHRIS WATTIE/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Layton's Funeral

    Olivia Chow reacts during the state funeral for her husband NDP Opposition Leader Jack Layton in Toronto August 27, 2011. More than 2,000 people turned out Saturday, August 27, 2011 for the state funeral of Canada's former opposition chief Jack Layton, who died earlier this week of cancer -- a tribute celebrating his message of hope. Layton, whose New Democratic Party (NDP) surged past the Liberals in elections earlier this year to become Canada's official opposition, lost his battle with cancer on Monday. He was 61. (CHRIS WATTIE/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Layton's Funeral

    Laureen Harper wipes her eye beside her husband Prime Minister Stephen Harper during the state funeral for NDP Opposition Leader Jack Layton in Toronto August 27, 2011. More than 2,000 people turned out Saturday August 27, 2011 for the state funeral of Canada's former opposition chief Jack Layton, who died earlier this week of cancer -- a tribute celebrating his message of hope. Layton, whose New Democratic Party (NDP) surged past the Liberals in elections earlier this year to become Canada's official opposition, lost his battle with cancer on Monday. He was 61. (MIKE CASSESE/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Layton's Funeral

    Former Ontario NDP leader Stephen Lewis delivers the eulogy at the state funeral for the late New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jack Layton at Roy Thompson Hall in Toronto, Ontario on August 27, 2011. Jack Layton, whose popularity and political skill helped his New Democrats surge past the Liberals to become Canada's official opposition earlier this year, has died at the age of 61. (Nathan Denette/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Layton's Funeral

    Olivia Chow (C) reacts during the eulogy at the state funeral for NDP Opposition Leader Jack Layton in Toronto August 27, 2011. More than 2,000 people turned out Saturday August 27, 2011 for the state funeral of Canada's former opposition chief Jack Layton, who died earlier this week of cancer -- a tribute celebrating his message of hope. Layton, whose New Democratic Party (NDP) surged past the Liberals in elections earlier this year to become Canada's official opposition, lost his battle with cancer on Monday. He was 61. (MIKE CASSESE/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Layton's Funeral

    A Police honor guard carry the coffin of Canadian opposition leader Jack Layton, following a state funeral in Toronto, Ontario on August 27, 2011. (GEOFF ROBINS/AFP/Getty Images)


FOLLOW CANADA POLITICS

Canadians are warming up to the New Democrats now that Thomas Mulcair has taken over the reins, with the party neck-and-neck with the Conservatives and way ahead in Quebec in a new poll. The survey...
Canadians are warming up to the New Democrats now that Thomas Mulcair has taken over the reins, with the party neck-and-neck with the Conservatives and way ahead in Quebec in a new poll. The survey...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Ascoli
03:44 PM on 04/03/2012
Cons everywhere are shallow, ignorant creeps.
Stevie is #1......... sickening man
12:46 PM on 04/03/2012
The NDP numbers are rising and the Liberals numbers are rising.

It will be perfect scenario of them evenly splitting the vote- and Tories wining majority government- with a 20% approval.

The NDP and Liberals - are so greedy for win - we will be stuck with Harper forever- MERGE THE LEFT.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
pjlowry
06:24 PM on 04/03/2012
Merging the left is a horrible idea... I do not want a two party system like the US does down south, where both parties are not corrupt and the people have no choice.

We have a better system with more than two parties. We have choice... and I'd rather have than than two merged parties.

PCs are losing their gripe... they are going down in 2015, and I predict a Kim Campbell like ousting, back down to two seats!
11:31 PM on 04/23/2012
I'd be more inclined to agree with you if there were only 2 seats in Alberta...
12:34 PM on 04/03/2012
Kim Jong Harper has 4 more years in his dictatorship so sit back relax and enjoy the ride...............

You must be this rich $$$$$$$$$ to get on this ride poor people need not apply
09:31 PM on 04/02/2012
He should be very afraid because people like me, despite our own personal politics, were never political. This government has called me a pedophile, supporter of terrorism, and leech on the public system. They have lied to me and assumed I would accept inexcusable behavior because of my 'polite' Canadian nature. They have shown a contempt for agriculture, fisheries, and the hard work of those involved. He should be afraid, because now I will be political. I will be a vocal participant against this government. And I suspect I will not be alone.
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BCPATRIOT
British Columbia
10:34 AM on 04/03/2012
Your not alone...
12:47 PM on 04/03/2012
You left out their hatred of science and hard working dutiful civil servants.
SamEasy
You really don`t want to know.
02:20 PM on 04/01/2012
REPUBLICANS don't get afraid, they get ruthless. And as the leader of the REPUBLICAN Party of Canada, you can bet Harper will do anything to re-design our fine country into his ideological dream. And he really believes that this is what ALL Canadians want, which is pure BS since he is supported by less than 40 of the population.
09:47 AM on 04/01/2012
Last week it was environics with the CPC at 30.0% and tied with the NDP, this week it is Forum with the CPC up 5.0% in support tied with the NDP at 35.0% and that the LPC is below 20.0%


"A survey done this week had the NDP tied with the Conservatives in public support at 35 per cent each. Just one in five Canadians — 19 per cent — backed the Liberals, their level of support in the last election"

It was this type of polling from Forun, Ekos, Envoronics that got the LPC in trouble in the run up to the 2011 election.

Missing polls are the Ekos, Angus Reid, Ipos reid, Nanos, polls that have the CPC at 37.0%, the NDP at the 26.0% to 28.0% and the LPC at or below 20.0%
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Liz Wilson 2
“a small group can change the world
05:44 PM on 04/01/2012
will be interesting to see if the Trudeau boxing win bumps positively in the polls for the Liberal party
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
spinnerator
07:40 AM on 04/01/2012
You people are kidding yourselves. The Cons have 4 more years of unfettered control, more than enough time to convince the country they're the best gov't. Or buy votes if that's your view point. Given Mulcair's history, plenty of time to shoot himself in the foot. Or with new leadership in the Libs, plenty of time for them to tear him a new one. He and the NDP are their natural enemy now.
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01:25 AM on 04/01/2012
I don't think he's afraid.

Conservatives will start labeling all of us non-conservatives paid agents of foreign entities (that's exactly what they're doing to environmental activists who oppose to biggest environmental catasrophy known as Alberta tar sands oil ) to establish a McCarthy inspired fear and loathing in the population. After all what would be left of conservative if it weren't for their incessant fear mongering, lies and fabrications.

Let us all remember shame and decency are considered weakness in the authoritarian playbook of conservatives.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
pjlowry
06:27 PM on 04/03/2012
Do you really think the seniors will care about that after the rules for their pensions (the same ones Harper promised was not on the table) were changed? I don't think so... he just lost a huge portion of his voting base.
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The Canadian
Stop Harper
11:15 PM on 03/31/2012
"Canadians are warming up to the New Democrats now that Thomas Mulcair has taken over the reins, with the party neck-and-neck with the Conservatives and way ahead in Quebec in a new poll."

And this was before Harper decided to make Canadians work two more years before they can collect a full pension. I can't wait to get this vile man out of office, but of course, he'll collect his full, gold-plated pension no matter how much he tries to whittle away those of average Canadians.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Skookum1
truth can't be bought, but lies sure can be sold..
12:09 PM on 03/31/2012
More "politics is only about numbers" analysis.

What Harper IS worried about is the news spreading that voters were moved to the Yukon from Alberta for election day, also in other ridings, and the increasing knowledge about the PHYSICAL PRESENCE of American campaign workers in Canada on election day - including in his pet dog Del Mastro's riding.

The numbers I'm more concerned with is "the money", as in "follow the money", as to who financed the organization of election theft.....and the thousands of Elections Canada investigations whose results are yet unpublished since 2004.....
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jamster88
02:02 PM on 03/31/2012
The notion that it is somehow within the realm of economic or rational possibility to fly people from the Yukon to Alberta - at very extraordinary expense - TO A F&&&ING PROVINCE ALREADY DOMINATED BY CONSERVATIVES ... defies logic of even the most cracked out, pot smoking dope head.
02:52 PM on 03/31/2012
He said TO the Yukon FROM Alberta. And Yukon had a well-respected Liberal MP who lost by a very small margin.
05:50 PM on 03/31/2012
Got that one exactly backwards Jamster. Guess we know who was smoking dope.
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Liz Wilson 2
“a small group can change the world
06:15 PM on 03/31/2012
that is the most amazing accusation. If that is true as well as all of the other remarkably illegal actions, I sincerely hope there is jail time.

My big question is what does it take to get people to do these sort of things and remain quiet about it?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
4evercanadian
Still my guitar gently weeps
06:49 PM on 03/31/2012
How to move votes: http://sandrafinley.ca/?p=4859

Contains a link to this video originally posted by someone else in these forums: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sennr_y02Ro
07:28 AM on 03/31/2012
Before anyone starts planning the street parties you may want to consider a few points-
Hes way ahead of Harper in Quebec, that would be a given, the voters there will support any Quebecer that has a chance to occupy the prime ministers office, obviously they think there is a much better chance of filling the provincial coffers at the countries expense. The rest of the country have a new face to ponder and have considered support for the NDP, Mulcaire does seem to have put a new face on that party and may seriously consider supporting him (myself included)
If the Liberals elect a new leader from Quebec that has some appeal to the rest of Canada and owing to the fact of the deep Liberal Roots in Quebec we will see quite a dog fight.

Must remember a Conservative, but from Quebec did quite well there-Mulroney, vs. an opponent from elsewhere in the country

Will be interesting to see what the Liberals do.
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waldopepper
I'd tell you all about me if you were my friend.
03:43 AM on 03/31/2012
I look forward to a decade from now, when Harper is the most reviled figure in Canadian history.
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07:37 AM on 03/31/2012
He already is. He only has about 1/3 of Canadians supporting him.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Skookum1
truth can't be bought, but lies sure can be sold..
12:10 PM on 03/31/2012
That took less than ten years for Mulroney...I don't think we'll have to wait that long for Stevie.
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Billk29
Justified Ancient of Mu
11:56 PM on 03/30/2012
It's only been a week. How can he have made any difference yet.
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12:21 AM on 03/31/2012
Well, that is a good point. Maybe the thing to read into this is that people finally realize the NDP is the real alternative, and if they really want change, they should vote NDP and not Tory, or Tory-lite aka. The Liberal Party of Canada.

The times they are a-changin'!
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Imma Okay
11:07 PM on 03/30/2012
It would be almost perfect if only Mulcair wasn't a weedophobe. I hope he changes his mind and the NDP and Liberals finally legalize marijuana.
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MJinCanada
Safe from zombies until my 2nd cup of coffee
12:42 PM on 04/01/2012
It would certainly save a lot of money in the police and justice system.

The city police here have enough to do that they mostly turn a blind eye (closed nose?) to the odd doobie, at least if the smokers are smiling and waving with all fingers.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Imma Okay
01:01 AM on 04/02/2012
Of course. If the current Conservative Party was actually conservative, they would have taken that step.
09:05 PM on 03/30/2012
I don't really care who is in charge. As long as Harper is voted out honestly in the next election so we can start having a progressive country, I am in.
07:17 AM on 03/31/2012
Me too! ABH - anybody but Harper - I would even take another PROGRESSIVE Conservative with more reasonable, balanced, democratic views (Joe Clark, anyone?). Harper is a fanatical oil tyrant who is rapidly leading this country down a path to destruction ala his hero George W. Bush.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Skookum1
truth can't be bought, but lies sure can be sold..
12:11 PM on 03/31/2012
Whatever happened to John Fraser (MP for Richmond BC, was environment minister)? Too old now? At least he was SANE (and not a bozo climate-denier, not in the least).
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Liz Wilson 2
“a small group can change the world
06:16 PM on 03/31/2012
I jsut hope that who ever succeeds Harper will still have a Canada left to govern.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jamster88
02:06 PM on 03/31/2012
Good. We are not ever going to have a 'progressive country' so LEAVE NOW.
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sonoffestus
Got smart & got out!
02:58 PM on 03/31/2012
Like living in a cave?
03:00 PM on 03/31/2012
Since the cons have less than 40% support from Canadians, the logical conclusion is that the majority of Canadians are, if not progressive, at least are not conservative. If that makes you uncomfortable, perhaps you should leave.