Electoral Boundary Commissions: A Look At Key Ridings Likely To Be Affected By Redrawing Of Map (PHOTOS)

The Huffington Post Canada  |  By Posted: 04/27/2012 8:08 am Updated: 04/27/2012 11:25 am

Electoral Boundary Commissions Ridings
The re-drawing of Canada’s electoral boundaries has the potential to play a major role in the next federal election. (Thinkstock/Getty)

The re-drawing of Canada’s electoral boundaries has the potential to play a major role in the next federal election. With population booming in the suburbs, regions in which the Conservatives dominated in 2011, the opposition will face an even greater challenge in toppling the government.

Most of the new seats will be created in Ontario’s suburban communities, a potential battleground come 2015. Nevertheless, the Conservatives hold the inside track and with Alberta gaining a swathe of new seats, their quest for another majority government will be easier.

But Quebec and British Columbia will also be receiving new seats. Under Thomas Mulcair, the New Democrats are back in the lead in Quebec and are running neck-and-neck with the Tories in British Columbia. The new seats in the two provinces could balance out the contest, while the re-drawing of boundaries in places like Saskatchewan could also make the race much closer between the two parties.

Here are some of the largest ridings likely to see major changes, and what those changes might mean.

Éric Grenier taps The Pulse of federal and regional politics for Huffington Post Canada readers on most Tuesdays and Fridays. Grenier is the author of ThreeHundredEight.com, covering Canadian politics, polls, and electoral projections.

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story contained a slideshow which stated Conservative MP Paul Calandra was first elected in 2011. He was actually first elected in the riding of Oak Ridges-Markham in 2008.

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  • Large Ridings Likely To See Boundary Changes

    Here are some of the largest ridings likely to see major changes, and what those changes might mean.

  • 21st largest: Montcalm (Quebec)

    Pop: 144,141<br> Density: 160/km2<br> 2004, 2006, 2008: BQ - Roger Gaudet<br> 2011: NDP - Manon Perreault, pictured,<br> Though there is no more than a residual BQ vote, this and neighbouring ridings used to give Bloc strong majorities. If BQ returns, new ridings in the area could be close NDP/BQ battles. If NDP holds strong, they will increase the party's numbers in the House<br>(Handout)

  • 18th largest: Mississauga - Brampton South (Ontario)

    Pop: 147,096<br> Density: 1,885.7/km2<br> 2004, 2006, 2008: LPC - Navdeep Bains<br> 2011: CPC - Eve Adams, pictured, (45% to 35% LPC)<br> Riding has areas of Liberal strength towards Mississauga, where neighbouring ridings are also more supportive of the Liberals.<br>(CP)

  • 9th, 10th, 11th, 13th, 14th, and 16th largest: Ridings in Calgary and Edmonton

    9th, 10th, 11th, 13th, 14th, and 16th largest: Ridings in Calgary and Edmonton.<br> All have given Conservatives strong majorities, and the added ridings in Alberta are accordingly expected to deliver five or six seats for the Conservatives.<br> Pictured: Calgary West Tory MP Rob Anders and Prime Minister Stephen Harper, MP for Calgary Southwest.<br>(CP)

  • 8th largest: Nepean-Carleton (Ontario)

    Pop: 159,032<br> Density: 141/km2<br> 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011: CPC - Pierre Poilievre, pictured, (54% to 25% LPC in 2011<br> Very large riding that stretches from suburban Ottawa to rural areas. Likely to have parts of it attached to more urban sections of Ottawa, including the strongly Liberal riding of Ottawa South.<br>(Handout)

  • 7th largest: Fleetwood - Port Kells (British Columbia)

    Pop: 160,129<br> Density: 1,511.3/km2<br> 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011: CPC - Nina Grewal, pictured, (48% to 33% NDP in 2011)<br> Has voted Conservative, but western section of riding has significant NDP support, and the two ridings to the west are held by the New Democrats.<br>(Handout)

  • 6th largest: Mississauga - Erindale (Ontario)

    Pop: 160,663<br> Density: 3,445.6/km2<br> 2004: LPC - Carolyn Parrish<br> 2006: LPC - Omar Alghabra<br> 2008, 2011: CPC - Bob Dechert, pictured, (47% to 34% LPC in 2011)<br> Pockets of Liberal support scattered about, but bordered by another Liberal riding to the northeast.<br>(Handout)

  • 5th largest: Bramalea - Gore - Malton (Ontario)

    Pop: 192,020<br> Density: 1,342.4/km2<br> 2004, 2006, 2008: LPC - Gurbax Singh Malhi<br> 2011: CPC - Bal Gosal, pictured, (34% to 34% NDP)<br> Very close three-way race, with Liberals finishing third with 29% support. A patchwork of Liberal, Conservative, and NDP support, but surrounding areas are relatively strong Conservative ridings.<br>(Handout)

  • 4th largest: Vaughan (Ontario)

    Pop: 196,068<br> Density: 897.5/km2<br> 2004, 2006, 2008: LPC - Maurizio Bevilacqua<br> 2010, 2011: CPC - Julian Fantino, pictured, (56% to 30% LPC in 2011<br> Solidly Conservative after a close by-election in 2010, but has a long Liberal history and is bordered to the south by two Liberal ridings and one close three-way contest.<br>(CP)

  • 2nd largest: Brampton West (Ontario)

    Pop: 204,146<br> Density: 1,977.9/km2<br> 2004, 2006: LPC - Colleen Beaumier<br> 2008: LPC - Andrew Kania<br> 2011: CPC - Kyle Seeback, pictured, (45% to 35% LPC)<br> A dense riding surrounded by other highly populated ridings. Large pockets of Liberal support, particularly near a region of Liberal support in neighbouring Mississauga - Brampton South.<br>(Handout)

  • 1st largest: Oak Ridges - Markham (Ontario)

    Pop: 228,997<br> Density: 336.8/km2<br> 2004, 2006: LPC - Lui Temelkovski<br> 2008, 2011: CPC - Paul Calandra, pictured, (51% to 27% LPC in 2011)<br> Strong Conservative riding, but the area around Markham has more NDP and Liberal support. Two bordering ridings in Markham held by the Liberals and NDP.<br>(Handout)



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  • As <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/04/25/electoral-boundary-commissions-canada_n_1451484.html" target="_hplink">electoral boundary commissions begin to carve up ridings</a> to make way for the <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/12/14/house-of-commons-seats-senate_n_1149540.html" target="_hplink">30 new seats being added to the House of Commons</a>, we take a look at how many seats each province is getting and just how fair representation really is in Canada.<br><br> Except in extraordinary circumstances, the population of each electoral district must be within +/-25% of the provincial quota.<br><br> (Shutterstock / <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/tomatogeezer/" target="_hplink">Flickr: Tomato Geezer</a>)

  • Ontario

    Ontario will gain 15 new seats under the Tory bill, bringing the province's total to 121.<br><br> Ontario's population is now 12,851,821 people.<br><br> The size each riding should now be is 106,213 people.<br><br> Percentage of House: Approximately 36 per cent.<br><br> Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 38 per cent.<br><br> (Alamy)

  • Quebec

    Quebec will gain three new seats under the Tory bill, bringing the province's total to 78.<br><br> Quebec's population is now 7,903,001 people.<br><br> The size each riding should now be is 101,321 people.<br><br> Percentage of House: Approximately 23 per cent.<br><br> Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 24 per cent.<br><br> (Alamy)

  • British Columbia

    B.C. will gain six new seats under the Tory bill, bringing the province's total to 42.<br><br> B.C.'s population is now 4,400,057 people.<br><br> The size each riding should now be is 104,763 people.<br><br> Percentage of House: Approximately 12 per cent.<br><br> Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 13 per cent.<br><br> (Alamy)

  • Alberta

    Alberta will gain six new seats under the Tory bill, bringing the province's total to 34.<br><br> Alberta's population is now 3,645,257 people.<br><br> The size each riding should now be is 107,213 people.<br><br> Percentage of House: Approximately 10 per cent.<br><br> Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 11 per cent.<br><br> (Alamy)

  • Manitoba

    Manitoba will gain no new seats under the Tory bill. The province currently has 14 seats.<br><br> Manitoba's population is now 1,208,268 people.<br><br> The size each riding should be is 86,305 people.<br><br> Percentage of House: Approximately 4 per cent.<br><br> Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 4 per cent.<br><br> (Alamy)

  • Saskatchewan

    Saskatchewan will gain no new seats under the Tory bill. The province currently has 14 seats.<br><br> Saskatchewan's population is now 1,033,381 people.<br><br> The size each riding should be is 73,813 people.<br><br> Percentage of House: Approximately 4 per cent.<br><br> Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 3 per cent.<br><br> (<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/justaprairieboy/" target="_hplink">Flickr: Just a Prairie Boy</a>)

  • Nova Scotia

    Nova Scotia will gain no new seats under the Tory bill. The province currently has 11 seats.<br><br> Nova Scotia's population is now 921,727 people.<br><br> The size each riding should be is 73,813 people.<br><br> Percentage of House: Approximately 3 per cent.<br><br> Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 3 per cent.<br><br> (<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/ojbyrne/" target="_hplink">Flickr: ojbyrne</a>)

  • New Brunswick

    New Brunswick will gain no new seats under the Tory bill. The province currently has 10 seats.<br><br> New Brunswick's population is now 751,171 people.<br><br> The size each riding should be is 75,117 people.<br><br> Percentage of House: Approximately 3 per cent.<br><br> Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 2 per cent.<br><br> (Alamy)

  • Newfoundland And Labrador

    Newfoundland and Labrador will gain no new seats under the Tory bill. The province currently has 7 seats.<br><br> Newfoundland And Labrador's population is now 514,536 people.<br><br> The size each riding should be is 73,505 people.<br><br> Percentage of House: Approximately 2 per cent.<br><br> Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 1.5 per cent.<br><br> (Alamy)

  • Prince Edward Island

    P.E.I. will gain no new seats under the Tory bill. The province currently has 4 seats.<br><br> P.E.I.'s population is now 140,204 people.<br><br> The size each riding should be is 35,051 people.<br><br> Percentage of House: Approximately 1 per cent.<br><br> Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 0.5 per cent.<br><br> (<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/neilwillsey/" target="_hplink">Flickr: n_willsey</a>)

1st largest: Oak Ridges – Markham (Ontario)
Pop: 228,997
Density: 336.8/km2

2004, 2006, 2008: LPC – Lui Temelkovski
2011: CPC – Paul Calandra (51% to 27% LPC in 2011)

Strong Conservative riding, but the area around Markham has more NDP and Liberal support. Two bordering ridings in Markham held by the Liberals and NDP.

2nd largest: Brampton West (Ontario)
Pop: 204,146
Density: 1,977.9/km2

2004, 2006: LPC – Colleen Beaumier
2008: LPC – Andrew Kania
2011: CPC – Kyle Seeback (45% to 35% LPC)

A dense riding surrounded by other highly populated ridings. Large pockets of Liberal support, particularly near a region of Liberal support in neighbouring Mississauga – Brampton South.

4th largest: Vaughan (Ontario)
Pop: 196,068
Density: 897.5/km2

2004, 2006, 2008: LPC – Maurizio Bevilacqua
2010, 2011: CPC – Julian Fantino (56% to 30% LPC in 2011)

Solidly Conservative after a close by-election in 2010, but has a long Liberal history and is bordered to the south by two Liberal ridings and one close three-way contest.

5th largest: Bramalea – Gore – Malton (Ontario)
Pop: 192,020
Density: 1,342.4/km2

2004, 2006, 2008: LPC – Gurbax Singh Malhi
2011: CPC – Bal Gosal (34% to 34% NDP)

Very close three-way race, with Liberals finishing third with 29% support. A patchwork of Liberal, Conservative, and NDP support, but surrounding areas are relatively strong Conservative ridings.

6th largest: Mississauga – Erindale (Ontario)
Pop: 160,663
Density: 3,445.6/km2

2004: LPC – Carolyn Parrish
2006: LPC – Omar Alghabra
2008, 2011: CPC – Bob Dechert (47% to 34% LPC in 2011)

Pockets of Liberal support scattered about, but bordered by another Liberal riding to the northeast.

7th largest: Fleetwood – Port Kells (British Columbia)
Pop: 160,129
Density: 1,511.3/km2

2004, 2006, 2008, 2011: CPC – Nina Grewal (48% to 33% NDP in 2011)

Has voted Conservative, but western section of riding has significant NDP support, and the two ridings to the west are held by the New Democrats.

8th largest: Nepean-Carleton (Ontario)
Pop: 159,032
Density: 141/km2

2004, 2006, 2008, 2011: CPC – Pierre Poilievre (54% to 25% LPC in 2011)

Very large riding that stretches from suburban Ottawa to rural areas. Likely to have parts of it attached to more urban sections of Ottawa, including the strongly Liberal riding of Ottawa South.

9th, 10th, 11th, 13th, 14th, and 16th largest: Ridings in Calgary and Edmonton

All have given Conservatives strong majorities, and the added ridings in Alberta are accordingly expected to deliver five or six seats for the Conservatives.

18th largest: Mississauga – Brampton South (Ontario)
Pop: 147,096
Density: 1,885.7/km2

2004, 2006, 2008: LPC – Navdeep Bains
2011: CPC – Eve Adams (45% to 35% LPC)

Riding has areas of Liberal strength towards Mississauga, where neighbouring ridings are also more supportive of the Liberals.

21st largest: Montcalm (Quebec)
Pop: 144,141
Density: 160/km2

2004, 2006, 2008: BQ – Roger Gaudet
2011: NDP – Manon Perreault

Though there is no more than a residual BQ vote, this and neighbouring ridings used to give Bloc strong majorities. If BQ returns, new ridings in the area could be close NDP/BQ battles. If NDP holds strong, they will increase the party’s numbers in the House.

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