Canada Condo Boom Could End With Ghettos, Ghost Towns, Some Analysts Fear

The Huffington Post Canada  |  By Posted: 05/09/2012 8:05 am Updated: 05/09/2012 7:18 pm

When market analysts start using words like “craze” and “unsustainable” to describe the state of housing, there may be something wrong.

And when one banking analyst describes the real estate market’s future prospects with the words “ghost town,” there may be something really, really wrong.

StatsCan released its April housing starts numbers on Tuesday, showing a startling 14 per cent jump in the number of new residential units coming under construction.

That went against observers’ expectations of a slight decline in starts, given the recent softening of prices in some of Canada’s biggest housing markets. But instead of a pull-back, Canada saw the second-largest number of condo starts ever recorded in a single month. And Ontario hit an all-time record.

CHECK OUT SOME OF THE WORLD'S COOLEST GHOST TOWNS

No surprise where much of the boom comes from: Condos. Of the seasonally adjusted 245,000 starts in April, fully 158,000 of them were multiple-family dwellings -- nearly two-thirds of the total. While single family home construction grew a modest 0.6 per cent, condo construction exploded by more than 27 per cent over the course of the month, when adjusted for seasonal patterns.

Analysts appear to be in agreement: That’s too much.

BMO Chief Economist Sherry Cooper says housing construction is “well above underlying demand” and the market is “at risk of overheating.”

TD Bank's Dina Cover was more blunt: “We suspect that this level of home starts is not sustainable,” the economist wrote in a note to clients, but added the bank expected the housing market to remain robust for the rest of the year.

Not everyone is so sure.

Scotia Capital economist Derek Holt told the Globe and Mail that there are signs of a housing bubble appearing in key hot markets.

In Toronto, he said, a quarter of the condo stock is sitting empty -- a situation similar to the one in south Florida some five years ago, just before the condo market there collapsed. It’s now possible today to buy a condo in Miami’s once-hot condo market for as little as $50,000.

“This is the ghost city phenomenon,” Mr. Holt said.

UPDATE: The source for Scotia Capital's assertion that a quarter of condos are empty, Shaun Hildebrand, an analyst for the CMHC, has restated that number to 22 per cent. He also notes he is referring to "investor owned" properties, and says it's unknown which ones are or aren't empty."We simply do not track that," he said, as quoted at the Financial Post.

Scotial Capital has also corrected the statistic, saying they "took an overly strong interpretation of CMHC figures." The 22 per cent number refers to the "condos in the Greater Toronto Area [that] are being rented as one portion of the investor owned segment," the note said.

The prospect of a housing bubble creating “ghost cities” is not just hysteria. It’s been on the minds of housing market analysts recently because of the bursting of the massive housing bubble in China in the past year, a market swoon so bad it exposed entire empty cities, waiting for occupants who will never arrive.

Obviously, the scale of the problem in Canada is much smaller. But the idea of empty condo buildings has many people worried about the ghettoization of Canada’s largest cities.

Toronto Star columnist Christopher Hume expressed those concerns in a recent article, in which he suggested the city’s condo complexes could end up being enormous new ghettos.

Hume argued that because condos tend be small, they rely on strength in the low-end housing market to keep their prices up. If a correction happens -- such as the one many predict Canada’s largest cities are in for -- those condos will lose value, will be turned into rental units, and will soon sink into poverty.

Another wild card in Canada’s condo market is foreign investors. By some estimates, investors from abroad have been snapping up as many as half the condos in Toronto and Vancouver. Little is known about who they are, and where their money comes from. So predicting when it might stop flowing is virtually impossible.

But one thing is certain: Foreign investors are crowding the real estate market, and forcing prices upwards. That has prompted some politicians and policymakers to call for a ban on foreign investment in residential real estate, as Australia recently did.

In an article at the National Post, Diane Francis reported on what she described as a tax fraud scam that’s blowing up a real estate bubble. Investors put 5 per cent down to buy a condo before it’s built, then flip the condo for a higher price and pocket the difference -- without paying taxes on this capital gain.

“[Condo] brokers tell me I can flip my assignment and pay no tax and there is no paper trail. They say we do it all day long,” the Post quoted an anonymous investor as saying.

All told, a picture is emerging of a housing market that is being increasingly distorted, and one that has less and less to do with the demand for shelter. If you get into the housing market this year, know the risks, and exercise caution.

CHECK OUT SOME OF THE WORLD'S COOLEST GHOST TOWNS

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  • St. Elmo, Colorado

    Getting there: <a href="http://st-elmo-colorado.com/" target="_hplink">St. Elmo</a> is in Gunnison National Forest. Numerous trails for hiking and off-road driving are easily accessible from town.

  • Chaco Canyon, New Mexico

    Getting there: A 9-mile paved loop road runs through the canyon.

  • Bodie, California

    Getting there: <a href="http://parks.ca.gov/?page_id=509" target="_hplink">Bodie</a> is a California Historic State Park, 7 miles south of the town of Bridgeport.

  • Humberstone & Santa Laura, Atacama Desert, Chile

    Getting there: Humerstone and Santa Laura are close to the town of Pozo Almonte, 30 miles east of Iquique, which is the nearest city with places to stay and an airport.

  • Bhangarh, Rajasthan, India

    Getting there: Bhangarh is 18 miles northeast of Jaipuir. <a href="http://rajasthantourism.gov.in/" target="_hplink">Tours </a>of the haunted city are available.

  • Kayakoy, Anatolia, Turkey

    Getting there: <a href="http://www.gofethiye.com/" target="_hplink">Fethiye</a>, approximately 2.5 miles north of Kayakoy, is the closest town.

  • Herculaneum, Naples, Italy

    Getting there: Herculaneum, 5 miles south of Naples, can be reached from the city by bus or train at the Ercolano station.

  • Belchite, Zaragoza Province, Spain

    Getting there: The remains of the old town are .5 miles from modern Belchite.

  • Kolmanskop, Namibia

    Getting there: The nearby city of Luderitz is a good base for exploring Kolmaskop and other abandoned mining towns in the area.

  • The Pyramid - Soviet mining city on Svalbard, Norway

    Pyramiden is a soviet mining settlement on the Norwegian Svalbard territory. Ghost town on 79 degrees north. Getting there: Stay in Longyearbyen, <a href="svalbard.net" target="_hplink">Svalbard</a>'s largest city, and take a day-long boat trip to Pyramiden. Guided tours are available.

  • Fayette, Michigan

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Geoffrey_Pelkey"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://graph.facebook.com/675650517/picture?type=square" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Geoffrey_Pelkey">Geoffrey Pelkey</a>:<br />Fayette was one of the typical 19th century "boom towns." The Jackson Iron Company founded the town in 1867 The site was chosen for the limestone, the small but deep natural harbor, and the immense stands of hardwood on the entire length of the Garden Peninsula. (The hardwood was used to make charcoal, which together with limestone, was essential to the iron smelting process.) By 1891 the hardwood on the peninsula was gone and soft coal was replacing charcoal in the smelting process. It was no longer profitable for the company to run Fayette. The furnaces went cold and the town slowly became deserted.

  • Hancock, Michigan

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/emcd"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://i.huffpost.com/profiles/262708-tiny.png?20101115194900" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/emcd">emcd</a>:<br />In the great UP of Michigan, old buinding at the abandoned Quincy Copper Mine museum.

  • Tunisian desert

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Jacek_Lerych"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://graph.facebook.com/100000307613881/picture?type=square" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Jacek_Lerych">Jacek Lerych</a>:<br />

  • Tunisian desert city (proprely cropped)

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Jacek_Lerych"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://graph.facebook.com/100000307613881/picture?type=square" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Jacek_Lerych">Jacek Lerych</a>:<br />

  • Jerome, Arizona

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/azfooddude"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://s.huffpost.com/images/profile/user_placeholder.gif" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/azfooddude">azfooddude</a>:<br />The Grand Hotel in Jerome, AZ use to be an insame assylum during the copper mining days.

  • Dogtown, Cape Ann, MA

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Bill_Way"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://s.huffpost.com/images/profile/user_placeholder.gif" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Bill_Way">Bill Way</a>:<br />After the Revolution, the many widows in the "Common Settlement" (now Gloucester) MA moved inland to avoid piracy and crime, and many got dogs for protection. The last survivors were moved to poorhouses in the early 1800s, leaving just the dogs. All that remains are some "cellar holes" lined with stonework, and these boulders, which were carved in the 1930s.

  • Real Photo Ghost Girl in White

    Taken in Springfield, IL Dec 2009 Girl in white, woman at right, apparitions not visible when taken.

  • Dancing Lady Ghost Apparition

    Cemtery photo from early 2011

  • Bodie, CA

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Jen_Gold"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://graph.facebook.com/779496339/picture?type=square" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Jen_Gold">Jen Gold</a>:<br />Definitely check out Bodie, CA - beautiful abandoned mining town in northern CA

  • Volubolis, Morocco

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Margaret_Reimer"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://graph.facebook.com/1238205470/picture?type=square" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Margaret_Reimer">Margaret Reimer</a>:<br />Volubolis, Morocco--the farthest south the Roman Empire got, the outpost that supplied fierce beasts for the Games, and that was abandoned after the expansion of Islam into Morocco. Eerie and wonderful, includes some fantastic floor mosaics

  • Goreme Valley, Cappadocia, Turkey

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Mikecochran"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://s.huffpost.com/images/profile/user_placeholder.gif" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Mikecochran">Mikecochran</a>:<br />One of many abandoned villages in Cappadocia.

  • Tunisian Ghost Town

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Mikecochran"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://s.huffpost.com/images/profile/user_placeholder.gif" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Mikecochran">Mikecochran</a>:<br />One of hundreds of abandoned villages in central Tunisia.

  • Bodie

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/horsegail"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://s.huffpost.com/images/profile/user_placeholder.gif" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/horsegail">horsegail</a>:<br />An old house in Bodie, Ca

  • Through the cracks of time

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/horsegail"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://s.huffpost.com/images/profile/user_placeholder.gif" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/horsegail">horsegail</a>:<br />THe ruins of Bodie, California

  • Eastern State Penitentiary

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/draffi"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://s.huffpost.com/images/profile/user_placeholder.gif" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/draffi">draffi</a>:<br />

  • Bannack, Montana

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/JaredMG"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://s.huffpost.com/images/profile/user_placeholder.gif" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/JaredMG">JaredMG</a>:<br />Bannack, Montana. A ghost town thankfully preserved by Montana's State Park division. Over 50 intact buildings to explore. The gallows still stands, and bullet holes are still in the walls.

  • Mogollon, in the southwest New Mexico

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/rcgauer"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://s.huffpost.com/images/profile/user_placeholder.gif" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/rcgauer">rcgauer</a>:<br />Part ghost town and part quiet retreat, Mogollon (pronounced "muggy - own") is a historic jewel perched in the Mogollon Mountains of southern Catron County, just north of Grant County and Silver City. Formed as a mining camp and later as a mining community, Mogollon's hills still bear witness to the heavy work of hard-rock mining underground: Mine shafts, rails for mine trains, sluices, abandoned buildings and the ruins of head frames still dot the landscape. Never attempt to enter mine ruins, shafts, buildings or other properties. More at www.silvercityacd.org.

  • Royal Gardens Subdivison, Big Island, Hawaii

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/kraig"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://i.huffpost.com/profiles/34298-tiny.png?20090908232346" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/kraig">kraig</a>:<br />Since 1984 volcanic flow from Kilauea, the world's most active volcano has reclaimed this one populated neighborhood.

  • Centralia, Pennsylvania

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/JaredMG"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://s.huffpost.com/images/profile/user_placeholder.gif" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/JaredMG">JaredMG</a>:<br />The site of a coal fire that's been burning underground since the late 1960s, Centralia has fewer than a dozen residents today and has even had its zip code revoked by the postal service.

  • Elizabeth Town, NM

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Nina_Anthony"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://graph.facebook.com/1301880638/picture?type=square" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Nina_Anthony">Nina Anthony</a>:<br />Old truck pointing the way to Elizabeth Town (aka "E-Town") New Mexico, a once-bustling gold mining town with 7,000 residents. Black Jack Ketchum was supposedly a frequent visitor.

  • Death Valley Junction, California

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/kraig"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://i.huffpost.com/profiles/34298-tiny.png?20090908232346" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/kraig">kraig</a>:<br />This ghost town also houses the Amargosa Opera House, owned by Marta Becket. The hotel next door is claimed to be one of the most haunted hotels in America. It is an old dormitory for miners.

  • Rhyolite, Death Valley

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/draffi"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://s.huffpost.com/images/profile/user_placeholder.gif" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/draffi">draffi</a>:<br />

  • Uranium City, Saskatchewan

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/idyl"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://s.huffpost.com/images/profile/user_placeholder.gif" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/idyl">idyl</a>:<br />An abandoned mining town with some 5,000 souls in its heyday (1982).

  • Rhyolite, Nevada

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/kraig"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://i.huffpost.com/profiles/34298-tiny.png?20090908232346" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/kraig">kraig</a>:<br />Rhyolite is a ghost town in Nye County, in the U.S. state of Nevada. It is located in the Bullfrog Hills, about 120 miles (190 km) northwest of Las Vegas, near the eastern edge of Death Valley.

  • Rhyolite, Nevada

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/kraig"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://i.huffpost.com/profiles/34298-tiny.png?20090908232346" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/kraig">kraig</a>:<br />Rhyolite is a ghost town in Nye County, in the U.S. state of Nevada. It is located in the Bullfrog Hills, about 120 miles (190 km) northwest of Las Vegas, near the eastern edge of Death Valley.

  • Elizabethtown, New Mexico

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Nina_Anthony"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://graph.facebook.com/1301880638/picture?type=square" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Nina_Anthony">Nina Anthony</a>:<br />Old truck pointing the way to Elizabethtown, New Mexico, a once-bustling gold mining town boasting a population of 7,000, which was frequently visited by the outlaw Blackjack Ketchum.

  • Two Guns, AZ. USA

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Chris_Shelton"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://graph.facebook.com/27701151/picture?type=square" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Chris_Shelton">Chris Shelton</a>:<br />Two Guns AZ is a ghost town with a few remaining buildings. Including one with a skatable pool!

  • Elkhorn Montana

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/galloppinggeezer"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://s.huffpost.com/images/profile/user_placeholder.gif" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/galloppinggeezer">galloppinggeezer</a>:<br />Elkhorn Montana

  • Oven inside the Meade Hotel Bannack MT

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/galloppinggeezer"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://s.huffpost.com/images/profile/user_placeholder.gif" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/galloppinggeezer">galloppinggeezer</a>:<br />Oven inside the Meade Hotel Bannack MT

  • Barber Chair Skinner's Bar Bannack MT

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/galloppinggeezer"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://s.huffpost.com/images/profile/user_placeholder.gif" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/galloppinggeezer">galloppinggeezer</a>:<br />Barber Chair Skinner's Bar Bannack MT

  • Dance & Stuart Virginia City MT

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/galloppinggeezer"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://s.huffpost.com/images/profile/user_placeholder.gif" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/galloppinggeezer">galloppinggeezer</a>:<br />Dance & Stuart Virginia City MT

  • Ha Ha Tonka Castle, Central Missouri

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Pixeltaker"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://s.huffpost.com/images/profile/user_placeholder.gif" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Pixeltaker">Pixeltaker</a>:<br />Burned in 1942 along with the castle. Ha Ha Tonka was the name of a near-by lake. The 5,000 acres was originally purchased in 1903 by Robert M. Snyder, a wealthy business man from Kansas City. He planned to use it as a retreat from the rigors of the business life. In 1905 he was tragically killed in one of Missouri's first automobile accidents. His sons completed the castle. More tragedy struck between 1905 and 1942.

  • Copper Queen Hotel's Cigar Man ( Who we thought was there )

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/DinoChloe"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://s.huffpost.com/images/profile/user_placeholder.gif" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/DinoChloe">DinoChloe</a>:<br />Here in picture my family was on another ghost adventure to Bisbee,Arizona here there are many spirts here but this orb we belive was a man cause my mom saw a man .We Visthere before and the town is very historic it self.In this I forgot to add that this a orb a orb is a spirts engry ussually you see them in pictures or nightvision goggles or even with your own eyes !

  • Encino, New Mexico

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Alex_Matzke"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://images.huffingtonpost.com/google_profile_img/2292985.png" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Alex_Matzke">Alex Matzke</a>:<br />An abandoned house in Encino, New Mexico.

  • Garnet Ghost Town

    Garnet, Montana

  • Uranium City, Saskatchewan 2011

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/ian_brewster_photography"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://s.huffpost.com/images/profile/user_placeholder.gif" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/ian_brewster_photography">ian brewster photography</a>:<br />Uranium City, August 2011 - thirty years after the mines closed

  • Uranium City, Saskatchewan 2011

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/ian_brewster_photography"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://s.huffpost.com/images/profile/user_placeholder.gif" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/ian_brewster_photography">ian brewster photography</a>:<br />Uranium City, 30 years after mines closed

  • Medicine Mound, Texas

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Robin_Cole_Jett"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://s.huffpost.com/images/profile/user_placeholder.gif" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Robin_Cole_Jett">Robin Cole Jett</a>:<br />Named after the four hills that served as places for Comanche vision quests.

  • The George Walker House, Paradise, Arizona

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Winston_L"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://s.huffpost.com/images/profile/user_placeholder.gif" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Winston_L">Winston L</a>:<br />George Walker founded the town of Paraddise. This is his 1902(06) home. http://www.thegeorgewalkerhouse.com

  • Nevadaville, Colorado

    <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Phillip_Barber"><img style="float:left;padding-right:6px !important;" src="http://graph.facebook.com/1413395040/picture?type=square" /></a><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Phillip_Barber">Phillip Barber</a>:<br />Old ghost town very close to Central City, CO

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When market analysts start using words like “craze” and “unsustainable” to describe the state of housing, there may be something wrong. And when one banking analyst describes the real estat...
When market analysts start using words like “craze” and “unsustainable” to describe the state of housing, there may be something wrong. And when one banking analyst describes the real estat...
 
 
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12:53 PM on 09/27/2012
Great work it looks like the condos are going up fast. Do they have estate lawyers vancouver.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Mike Turner
07:52 AM on 05/10/2012
Man that pictures is terrible, no lens correction and bad hdr processing
07:28 AM on 05/10/2012
when banks talk about the housing market ---

they are really talking about their own risk exposure ----ie will the buyers be able to pay off their mortgages ----

talk about collapses in prices are part of the ""talking down the market" trick they use to take some of the pressure offf price increases

in the end they are really fretting about their own lending practices ---
07:17 AM on 05/10/2012
BMO Chief Economist Sherry Cooper says housing construction is “well above underlying demand” and the market is “at risk of overheating.”

those two statements are incompatible ----oversupply cools prices -----

at any rate a condo building 40 stories high with 10 units per floor is 400 units

occupied by say 2 persons --provides housing for 800 people

with say 100 new projects you are talking about housing for 80,000 people ---

not much when the source material is 250,000 via immigration and 10, 000,000 critical mass in the province------not counting influxes for students
photo
WorldisMorphing
Jaded Iconoclast ...
07:13 PM on 05/09/2012
["By some estimates, investors from abroad have been snapping up as many as half the condos in Toronto and Vancouver. "]

lol ... Or as the bankers would put it: Forget about growth by industry and innovation; Give us growth by asset price inflation, give us growth by treasonous economic rent and monopoly rent. Give us the profit by unearned increment as John Stewart Mill would put it.
This is how I put it:
Give us slavery, calamity and MEDIOCRITY.

http://michael-hudson.com/2012/03/film-real-estate-4-ransom/
You're welcome.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
racc
04:58 PM on 05/09/2012
People want to live the centre of cities where they are not forced to drive everywhere. The worst that will happen is that prices will come down so that more people can afford to live near where they want to live.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Kristopher Leang
training to take down the elite
09:29 PM on 05/09/2012
really is that the worst thing that always happens when a bubble pops? woww ignorant much.. how about looking back at history from 2008 or is that too hard?
photo
albertarick
These are questions for wise men with skinny arms
04:32 PM on 05/09/2012
CMHC does not track owner occupation of homes because you cannot get CMHC insurance on a rental property.
photo
Ian Llangan
Your Invisible Sky Friend Is Morally Abhorrent
03:33 PM on 05/09/2012
So many factors are not addressed in this article. Actual materials and techniques used in the construction of most new Toronto condos are already proving problematic (one e.g. - falling glass). What state will these 25-40+ story towers be in within 10, 20, 50 years? Many are being located right next to major highways (location fail - driving down the Gardiner is already like being in a canyon!), and we know nothing of each building's regulations. If owner occupancy of units is not stipulated, you have rental tenements almost immediately. IMHO, zoning in the Toronto market has been a HUGE failure and there is a price to be paid for this at some point by all Toronto residents.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Filthy
03:29 PM on 05/09/2012
Stop warning them! I would love a $50,000 condo. Who are you working for HP?
04:09 PM on 05/09/2012
It's not like anyone will change just because of this article... I've been telling people this was happening for at least 5 years now. It's actually pretty obvious...
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Filthy
04:25 PM on 05/09/2012
You've been predicting an economic collapse for five years? You must be an economist.
07:48 AM on 05/10/2012
well nostradomus -----maybe predictions are not your forte --especially about the future
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Gabriel Oakes
03:23 PM on 05/09/2012
As someone who thinks of housing as something to buy because you actually want to live there and not as an investment, this bubble can`t burst soon enough (and it will- nothing goes higher forever). I`d like to actually be able to buy a house at some point, but the way prices keep going up it won`t happen until something crashes.
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Mad Hatter 1
03:12 PM on 05/09/2012
Here out west in BC the leaky Condo issue still looms, with little government support for the owners, its buyer beware.
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05:04 PM on 05/09/2012
....and no accountability whatsoever from the people who built them so poorly.
05:34 PM on 05/09/2012
criminal, there should be jail time for some of the builders
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Add In Canadia
Egotism is a weakness
02:23 PM on 05/09/2012
Hmm... spend $500,000 on a condo when the market is red hot...
or spend $50,000 when the market is completely decimated...

Hmm... buy a condo in a part of the country in where the economy is struggling a bit...
or rent an apartment in a city where there's jobs, and follow the jobs around? Especially when jobs only last a few years for most people.

Choices, choices, choices.

There was a lesson to be learned from the US housing market collapse: Live within your means. People ate up the idea that a house was an asset that was guaranteed to appreciate, so if you had a mortgage, it was a good thing because you were holding onto something that was 'guaranteed' to grow in value, so you could just sell the mortgage off to someone else and make a pretty penny.

There's a childhood game that reflects what's going on: Hot potato. You get stuck with it when the cycle ends? You're the one who's going to get burned.

People need to stop believing that a home is a sure-fire investment, because it isn't. There's no guarantee that it's value will increase, and there's no guarantee that there will be a job for you in the neighborhood, let alone the city in where you purchased your home. Also, good luck trying to sell your home if you need to leave to find a job in another city; because everyone else will be doing that.
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Filthy
03:38 PM on 05/09/2012
I don't think that was the most important lesson, I mean most people know that. Many people did purchase houses and negotiated payments that were well within their means. However most mortgage holders can call a mortgage at anytime demanding increased monthly payments or payment in full. This clause is in your mortgage, it's in most every mortgage, but real estate lawyers, real estate agents and mortgage brokers will dismiss it as a possible course of action a mortgage lender could take, but completely beyond the realm of possibility. This wasn't the case for many Americans after the housing collapse and many faced 'accelerated' monthly payments they hadn't agreed to or had the entirety of their loans called in.
02:12 PM on 05/09/2012
Articles like this are of no real value. They do not serve to warn buyers with any substantial facts. Urbanization, inadequate intra-city transportation, new immigration, and the complete lack of up-to-date rental apartments are driving condo purchases in downtown Toronto. This trend may slow sooner rather than later, but there is no bust in the future. I was not able to find anyone, and I am a real estate broker, who would agree that one quarter of condo units in Toronto are currently empty as Mr. Holt has indicated. Economists are the worst people to predict housing trends. If we listened to them we would have all sold years ago. They are not in regular contract with the market and are inclined to use statistics and information that is third hand and unreliable.
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SayBlade
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02:16 PM on 05/09/2012
Doesn't it depend upon who employs the economist?
02:38 PM on 05/09/2012
You're right but what's in it for Scotia Capital to have Derek Holt predict doom and gloom in downtown Toronto? I think that it's always easier and safer to predict the worst and then when things are better than that, you won't loose your job. The reverse cannot be said and job loss is a distinct possibility!
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Mr e MaN
Political Atheist
03:40 PM on 05/09/2012
That is right real estate agents are more reliable source for facts. The facts are out there but you actuallly have to look.

A couple items we already know. Interest rates have no where to go but up. The ownership is at historical highes, therefore no new buyers to buy. The price to income ratios are higher than 3-3.5 which is the historic norm. Canadian rates of debt are at unsustainable levels. CMHC has no more money to insure high risk loans and banks are way more prudent.
04:00 PM on 05/09/2012
Every point you make is true about the general market but not I believe about the condo or home market in Toronto. There is so much foreign money coming here and they don't care about CMHC or interest rates. They have tons of cash. And they buy homes for themselves and their whole families. We also are getting a lot of people who have inherited from their parents. Their parents made a lot of money on the run up in property and now they are giving back to property market! The growth will die down but to say that prices would drop by 20% in Toronto, is very unlikely. The suburban housing projects that are long commutes are more vulnerable as oil goes up.
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suvariboy
No agenda...except for, well, you know...
01:54 PM on 05/09/2012
The key to this article is the last few words in the heading, "...Some Analysts Fear." Others say there's nothing to worry about, that a slight correction would not be catastrophic. There have been predictions for many years that the real estate market in Toronto is "about to burst." An ex-neighbour of mine sold his house ten years ago and rented an apartment above a store to wait for the collapse so he could buy up cheap houses. Ten years later, he's still waiting. How much equity did he lose out on and how much rent has he paid in the last ten years?
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stopgeorge
Paper Ballots WORK. Unverifiable e-voting doesn't
01:57 PM on 05/09/2012
If he were in Vancouver, I would have said he sold at the wrong time.

The bubble will burst. It's a question of when.
yer
Stop the Alberta Taliban
02:02 PM on 05/09/2012
I view the condo market as more volatile than the housing market. I don't follow the rationale of selling a house to get an apartment
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SayBlade
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02:13 PM on 05/09/2012
If a condo is viewed as housing there are younger people who want a starter home, people who need something close to work, those who downsize in their older years and some seniors who want the convenience of someone else looking after the maintenance.
01:54 PM on 05/09/2012
It appears we spend a lot of time here worried about what might or might not happen.
04:21 PM on 05/09/2012
When you have $800,000 of debt tied to a house, you better be worried!
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05:06 PM on 05/09/2012
For something that took a few months to build.