Last year, Vancouverites fed up with the cost of housing banded together as part of the #donthave1million campaign.
In 10 years' time, they could find themselves rallying around the fact that they don't have $5 million to buy a single-family home.
HuffPost Canada has put together projections of house prices in Canada's largest cities, based on the trends seen over the past three years. The prognosis? Things are going to be really, really expensive, if this keeps up.
A single-family home for sale in Vancouver. (Photo: Julie Gordon/Reuters)
A single-family home in Toronto will run between $2.26 million and $3.582 million by 2026, by our projections. In Vancouver, a single-family home will run you $2.8 million to $5.1 million by then.
But the bad news doesn't just affect people who haven't bought yet. Upgrading from a condo to a house in these cities would become a mere fantasy for many in the middle class under these scenarios.
In Toronto today, upgrading from an average condo to an average house costs $758,000. By 2026, it will cost between $1.68 million and $2.95 million. Good luck.
In Vancouver, it takes $879,000 to upgrade from an average condo to a house today, but 10 years from now it will cost between $1.99 million and $4.05 million.
Right now, you're thinking...
If you think these numbers are insane, you're right. The point of this is not to scare you into rushing out and getting a huge mortgage before prices get any worse, it's to illustrate that what's going on in Toronto and Vancouver today can't go on. If it did, things would get downright stupid.
We extrapolated prices using two different measures: One assumed "linear growth" — prices will rise by the same amount, on average, as they have over the past three years. The second assumed percentage growth — prices will rise by the same percentage every year.
Predicting the cost of real estate is a flawed practice — market conditions change without notice. The forecast for Calgary shows condo prices will be lower there 10 years from now than they are today. But Alberta's oil recession is unlikely to last a decade.
Here's what house prices could look like in six major cities 10 years from now:
Other Canadian cities won't see nearly the same sort of price growth...
Also on HuffPost:
This Tudor home in Vancouver's ritzy Shaughnessy neighbourhood was listed for $5.99 million in May. After 12 days, it sold for just over $8 million. “When you’ve got too little supply (of detached houses) and too many buyers, that’s always what happens,” realtor Stuart Bonner told The Province.
This abandoned home (read: eyesore) became a dumping ground over several months in 2015. Piles of rotting trash and unwanted furniture attracted rodents to the area, and the smell was sometimes so bad that neighbours refused to open their back doors. The house was assessed at $813,000, and others in the area were valued at over $1 million.
"Avail now. Bring your tent." A Craigslist ad advertised a backyard for rent for $500 per month. WiFi, use of the home's bathroom, kitchen, laundry, and "art room" were part of the deal. Great for travellers, apparently!
This home was listed at just under $3 million in June, and was sold to an offshore buyer for $4.1 million after a couple hours, the realtor said.
Bargain alert: a former grow-op hit the market in March for $930,000. The 1968 two-storey home was in such bad shape that no one could live in it. The house got an occupancy permit back in 2001, and was renovated before it was listed. The price was mostly because of the 6,000 sq.-ft. lot.
This rare, 3.6-metre wide home sold in April for $1.35 million. Tucked in the upscale Point Grey neighbourhood, the floor space is only 945 sq.-ft., but manages to cram in a full kitchen, master bedroom, living room, garage, den and 1.5 bathrooms. The home is believed to be one of the last of its kind in the entire city, according to the realtor.
This house, listed for just under $1.6 million, sold for $2.17 million in March — a mind-boggling 35 per cent over asking. "It was the highest price per square foot ever achieved for an East Vancouver home," realtor Paul Eviston told CBC News.
Chump change, amirite? This 25,000 sq.-ft. mansion, which sits on a 1.09 hectare property, was purchased in December 2014 for $51 million. (Details of the sale were made public in March.) The deal included a movie theatre, grass tennis court, and 10-car garage, according to the CBC.
Talk about a sweet deal! This (very well-decorated) gingerbread house was advertised on Craigslist for $4.5 million in December. It's a one-bedroom home that's a single sq. ft. in size. The baking sheet upon which it stands was not included in the sale. The seller asked for "serious" inquires only.