If you haven’t heard that house prices in Toronto and Vancouver are going insane, welcome back from under the rock where you were hiding.
But what you may not know is that much of the rest of Canada is seeing a very different situation, one where price growth has halted and sales are stagnant.
National Bank economist Marc Pinsonneault broke down data from the Teranet house price index to separate the Toronto and Vancouver areas from the rest of the country, and found that, in the rest of the country, prices are falling on average.
Strip away Toronto/Hamilton and Vancouver/Victoria, and house prices are falling in Canada. (Chart: National Bank Financial)
“The dichotomy continues on the Canadian home resale market,” Pinsonneault wrote Tuesday. The “massive gains” in Toronto and Vancouver “contrast sharply with other regions,” he added.
Pinsonneault noted that four of the 11 major cities tracked by the Teranet index have shown price declines over the past year. Here are the four cities where the housing market is tanking.
House price change in past year: -3.61%
Home sales change in past year: +1%
Sales are stable in Quebec City’s housing market, but there was a steep, seven-per-cent drop in condo prices in the first quarter of this year, pulling down the average house price.
Halifax, N.S. (sort of)
House price change in past year: -4.67%
Home sales change in past year: +19%
This one deserves a "sort of" qualifier because, despite prices falling nearly 5 per cent in a year, there's been a solid 19-per-cent increase in home sales.
House price change in past year: -0.22%
Home sales change in past year: -12.03%
Despite the continuing decline in home sales in Calgary, prices are holding up relatively well, barely down in the past year. Some have suggested that foreign buyers of real estate are helping to prop up Calgary house prices, despite the oil price collapse.
House price change in past year: -1.67%
Home sales change in past year: +3.8%
Even though prices are down over the past year, sales are actually up almost 4 per cent, including an 18-per-cent spike in sales just in May, suggesting the worst may be over for Edmonton’s housing market.
*Home price data is from the Teranet house price index. Sales data is from local real estate boards.