Canadian Dollar Could See Big Gains If Hillary Clinton Wins

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The loonie stands to gain big from a Hillary Clinton presidency.

The Canadian dollar's value could grow by as much as 10 per cent if the Democratic candidate takes the White House, says a report by the Brookings Institution.

hillary clinton donald trump
Democratic U.S. presidential nominee Hillary Clinton smiles at a member of the audience as she walks off the debate stage as Republican candidate Donald Trump remains at his podium after the conclusion of their third and final 2016 presidential campaign debate at UNLV in Las Vegas, Nev. on Oct. 19. (Photo: Mike Blake/Reuters)

The institution derived its conclusion from looking at currency market activity on Sept. 26, when Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump tangled in the first Presidential debate.

Polls showed that Clinton was widely believed to have won the debate. And that optimism for her victory was reflected in currency gains.

"The debate led to particularly sharp appreciations of the Mexican Peso and the Canadian dollar — the United States' nearest neighbours and partners in NAFTA," authors Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz said.

The value of the Canadian dollar grew by 0.58 per cent between 9 p.m. and 11 p.m. on the night of the debate, while the Mexican peso grew by 1.76 per cent in the same time frame.

loonie price
Loonies laid over a map of Canada in this stock photo. (Photo: CP)

The authors then extrapolated this data to see what would happen if Clinton won the presidency.

They estimated that the Canadian dollar's value would grow by 9.7 per cent, and the peso's by 29.3 per cent.

But the Peso and the loonie weren't the only winners from Clinton's debate performance. Stock markets in the U.S., U.K. and Asia also grew, as did the price of crude oil.

donald trump
U.S. Republican nominee Donald Trump. (Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images)

This isn't the first report to suggest financial markets have a negative correlation with a possible Trump presidency.

The Mexican Peso has tracked Trump's poll results, having grown steadily since the Sept. 26 debate, Scotiabank FX strategist Shaun Osborune told The Huffington Post Canada last week.

Elsewhere, Ireland-based betting company Paddy Power is so confident of a Clinton victory that it's already paid out $1 million to bettors who put money on the Democrat winning.

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