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Andreas Souvaliotis

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Could the Greek Economic Crisis Happen to Us?

Posted: 10/20/11 11:02 AM ET

There has been a gradual and fascinating evolution of the prevailing mood in my birth country over the past few months. At first it was predictable denial -- "This isn't really happening"; "We're fine"; or "It's all exaggerations, myths and drama." Then my fellow Greeks became incredulous -- "How could this possibly happen to us?" Then came the classic blame-shift, blended with a hearty dose of old-fashioned Mediterranean xenophobia -- "They were too eager to lend to us"; "They were trying to destroy us and push us into bankruptcy." And more recently there has been some sober and healthy questioning of the effectiveness of their own leadership; they've started to wonder how and for how long their governments may have been failing them; and they've begun to debate what national governance should really be all about.

There is more to come, of course -- the final step in this process of national mourning and cleansing will be the painful realization that there is more than enough trickle-down blame to be had by every single member of that society; that they're all, individually and collectively, responsible for the spectacular mess they're in now; that the only path back to prosperity and domestic peace will be through a lot less individualism, a lot more mutual respect and a fundamental redefinition of their currently twisted and oversimplified notions of "democracy" and "freedom."

In the meantime, while the Greeks are mostly focused on figuring out the shortcomings of their national leadership, perhaps this is an appropriate time for us to also understand how our elected leaders are expected to protect us from slipping into a similar societal abyss. I would argue that the main cause of Greece's demise over the past generation was not just incompetent management of their nation's business but also a pervasive lack of social leadership. Their various elected governments tried to manage (sometimes honestly, mostly not) but they rarely led -- and were certainly not expected to lead. Without a requirement of thoughtful, long-term leadership, managers tend to be very opportunistic; success metrics can become narrow and strictly quantitative while horizons can become very short. In a nouveau-riche society that had fallen in love with the quick drachma or euro, any notions of long-term vision or social balance had all but evaporated.

So, what about us? Do we also run the risk of shifting our governance pendulum too much towards basic wealth management and away from the long-term stuff? Is there a risk of us becoming too enamoured with our terrific natural resource windfall at the expense of long-term vision? Are we understanding exactly what has historically earned us top marks in the world's balanced scorecard -- and are we doing everything we can to maintain that wonderful distinction, primarily on behalf of those who will inherit this beautiful country from us?

I would argue that, generally, we're in excellent shape compared to most other nations. We reinvest and diversify our prosperity; we are proud protectors of our social net and balanced wealth distribution; we constantly enrich our DNA through the world's most effective and generous inbound immigration system; and we adore competency, moderation, mutual respect and non-idealistic leadership. In short -- it would be really tough for us to screw it all up and end up in the same situation as Greece. But it's important that we stay vigilant, particularly at a time when so many of our fellow citizens have become cynical about the democratic process and many have disengaged entirely. We can't take our good fortune for granted. If more and more of us tune out, if we start forgetting what got us here and neglecting our core values as a nation, if we simplify our yardsticks and only reward opportunistic management instead of visionary leadership, then we could end up closer to that same slippery slope as Greece. We're good now; but let's make sure we stay good.

 
There has been a gradual and fascinating evolution of the prevailing mood in my birth country over the past few months. At first it was predictable denial -- "This isn't really happening"; "We're fine...
There has been a gradual and fascinating evolution of the prevailing mood in my birth country over the past few months. At first it was predictable denial -- "This isn't really happening"; "We're fine...
 
 
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05:04 PM on 10/20/2011
As long as Canadians pay their fair share of taxes the country will be just fine.
03:16 AM on 10/21/2011
To balance a budget, you should not only look at revenues but you must also look at spendings. We all do it with the family budget but the government can't seem to be able to do it. Right now, we are NOT doing it.
02:36 PM on 10/20/2011
Excerpt from Karl.

http://market-ticker.org/

How much time does the United States Government and our society generally have left?

Let's figure it out as a process of elimination:

Can we pay twice as much interest as we pay now? That's about $900 billion, leaving roughly $1.5 trillion for all programs ex-interest. To put this in perspective we could fund Defense and one of Social Security, Medicare, or the combined Medicaid/Welfare/etc social programs. We could not, however, fund more than one or pay for any other programs at all. That's the 50% coverage point, so we cannot withstand one more doubling.

Now how long do we have? That is, how much is a "doubling time"? That's easy too. We open up The Fed Z1 spreadsheet and Look at column Z1/Z1/LA314104005.Q, which is the Federal Government quarterly. Over the last decade that went from $3.284 trillion to $9.77 trillion, or 297%. This is roughly a 12% rate of increase annually.

The Rule of 72 tells us that this means that the debt at the government level, given what we're doing today, will double every six years.
03:11 AM on 10/21/2011
In 2005 Harper's Reform/Conservatives took over the country which had a surplus of $14B and turned it into a country with a deficit. In the last 3 years, the deficits have been $56B for 2009, $48B for 2010 and an estimated $36B for 2011. We are heading in the Greek direction while stroking ourselves and telling ourselves how good we are. Every time a right-wing government gets into power, they run down the country all the while pretending to be great administrators. Diefenbaker did it, Mulroney did it and Harper is now doing it in front of our eyes and everyone can see it, but we are all in denial. We can't afford expensive war toys for useless wars in far away lands to destroy countries that have done nothing wrong.
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02:02 PM on 10/20/2011
How could there be a discussion about the Greek crisis without saying what it was about? Well here it is:

Government spending far exceeded revenue until no one was willing to lend to Greece anymore.

It wasn't an "excessive of individualism" or any other mushy explanation, but hard arithmetic and the refusal to face the implications of that arithmetic.

And the provinces of Ontario and Quebec should heed the warning.
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Richard Bartholomew
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01:19 AM on 11/08/2011
Well said---I agree with you.
02:01 PM on 10/20/2011
Yes. Cut Off SNAP Benefits and other support and we will start looking like Greece pretty quick IMO.

Here are some pictures:

Greek Parliamentary Garage On Fire And Other Dramatic Footage From Today's Athens Riots

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greek-parliamentary-garage-fire-and-other-dramatic-footage-todays-athens-riots