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Daniel D. Veniez

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Mulcair's Ploy to Spread (Dutch) Disease

Posted: 05/18/2012 10:57 am

NDP leader Thomas Mulcair's recent meditations on an economic phenomenon known as "Dutch Disease" illustrates again that NDP and their new leader are far from ready for prime time.

Western Premiers and others have characterized Mulcair's comments "divisive." Indeed, they are. They are also cynical and profoundly ill-informed. Although I don't believe he is "goofy" as Premier Christy Clark has said, his foray into economic thought betrays an utter ignorance for how the wheels of the economy turn and how our high standard of living is actually created.

Saskatchewan and Alberta have become robust economic engines, largely based on the foundations of their respective resource sectors. Because of that foundation, their economies have grown and expanded into a variety of related and unrelated areas. Real wealth has been created that has benefitted the entire national economy. Newfoundland and Labrador has done the same thing. From the poor child of Confederation, it is today the shining rock on the Rock.

For months, Mulcair has been saying that Canada "fits the textbook definition of Dutch Disease." No it doesn't. Among others, Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney and Jack University of Calgary economist Jack Mintz don't believe the term applies to Canada. In fact, many economists from The Netherlands don't believe that this so-called "disease" ever really existed there, either.

"Dutch Disease" strikes when foreign demand for an export drives up the exchange value of the exporting country's currency. This increase in the currency's value makes the nation's other export products less competitive.

There can be no question that a strong commodity pull from China has been a factor in driving up the value of the Canadian dollar. But the evidence is inconclusive as to whether this is the primary factor, however.

In fact, there are many others, including Canada's relatively strong fiscal position and balance sheet, political stability, not to mention the ease with which currency speculators trade on a global basis. We should also keep in mind the dollar has been trading at historic highs relative to the United States, which has seen its currency steadily decline to historic lows.

Canada's rich and abundant oil and gas, coal, metal, minerals, and timber endowment is not a curse, and certainly not a "disease." It is a blessing and comparative advantage. These are assets that must be carefully and strategically managed and nurtured.

Unlike most OPEC countries, for example, Canada's economy is broad and diversified. Less diversified and developing countries are far less equipped to ward off "Dutch Disease." By contrast, Canada is a democracy, where that system and tradition is strong, and so too is the market economy -- for the most part.

That does not mean that there is not a kernel of truth in Mulcair's statements. But like most demagogues, that tiny morsel is being cynically deployed to appeal to pre-conceived ideological prejudices and partisan purposes. Unfortunately, Mulcair is not acting like anyone hoping to be a national leader must. He is shamelessly kowtowing to his base that believes the dreaded "tar sands" should be shut down completely.

That's not about to happen, nor should it.

Canadians can walk and chew at the same time. A strong currency is a desirable thing, overall. For manufacturers and other businesses, the steady rise of the dollar since 2003 forced them to drive innovation and cost competitiveness. It has certainly not been easy, but it has been a necessary and vitally important thing for them to do.

There's absolutely nothing preventing us having a thriving resource sector while growing other facets of our broad-based economy, including manufacturing. In fact, they can and should complement each other and are far from mutually exclusive.

But to do that, we need policy makers who understand what is required to create the conditions that lead to attracting new investment and make capital formation easier. Those are low taxes, increased competition and trade, world-class education and health care, and a smart and efficient regulatory regime. This is what fosters innovation, entrepreneurship, and productivity. And that is what also creates a larger tax base, creates new high-skill and high-paying jobs, and enhances our standard of living.

There's a reason why we export our resources raw. Federal and provincial policy and regulations have made it impossible for greenfield projects -- such as oil refineries and pulp mills, for instance -- to be financed and built on an viable economic basis. If that were not the case, capital would be drawn to them and facilities would be built. If capital markets and entrepreneurs believe there's a buck to be made, you can be sure of this: they will come in droves.

In British Columbia, the last NDP government hurt the forest economy through its exceptionally high economic rents, oppressive regulations, and hostile investment climate. Unions got greedy and militant in protecting their "entitlements" and "gains" from previous collective agreements. Managements got lazy and complacent. Logging contractors enjoyed their legislated and uncompetitive cost-plus contracts.

The province, more concerned with safeguarding their revenue streams from stumpage and license fees, kept collecting from an ever-dwindling pool. Communities that for decades relied on obscenely high property tax rates for pulp, paper and saw mills refused to see that they were contributing to sucking the life out of firms, preventing them from re-investing in new productivity enhancing technologies. And First Nations, with claims on all the crown land, were left in limbo. The economic uncertainly that came with a lack of clarity on property rights due to a refusal to deal with treaties was the nail in the coffin.

Investment dollars vacated or took a pass to go elsewhere and build what should have been built right here in Canada.

In his thoughtful memoir The Age of Turbulence, Alan Greenspan wrote "natural-resource wealth often has crippling social effects. Easy, unearned wealth tend to dampen productivity." Indeed it does, if we let it. And that's precisely what Mulcair's prescriptions would do. We've seen this at work before in B.C.

So, if one wants a glimpse at what an NDP government under Tom Mulcair would do, they should look no further than what their brothers and sisters did to the B.C. economy. The NDP shattered the resource, processing and manufacturing sector for a generation, destroying tens of thousands of jobs and gutting communities. It took a decade to reverse the damage that was done. And we are still not out of the woods.

 

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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
canobserv
09:16 AM on 05/22/2012
If the Liberals....or the former-rans of said party........ .continue a tt acking Mulcair than I am afraid that third party ranking is gonna stick......
12:04 PM on 05/21/2012
The fact that we have to much and arn't using common sense or balence to extract them, thats the problem. if the term wasent' 'Dutch disese' then that word would've never come up, so just stop using slang and untehnical terms to insult a economist when you arn't one, ok?

Canada is a very diverse and open maunfacturing AND resource based economy, thats good, thats oen of the major reasons WHY we haven't hada huge meltdown and are probally the most fiscally stable county on earth right now. Thing is, we don't own our resources, we don't use them logicly, and 4 of 5 poltiical parties are more intent on tearing own a rising star then just admitting that his hard anylist is actually true.

Mr Daniel Veniez, I'm sure your party appreciates your articel and best of luck next tie myou choose to run for office, but I disagree with you and I think attempts to muddy the water will just put the Liberals in third place to a Conservative opposition rather then help you regain the power you lost.
11:27 AM on 05/22/2012
"...if the term wasent' 'Dutch disese' then that word would've never come up".

That is a not true. There are many terms that are invented to support agendas, real or imagined.
12:04 PM on 05/21/2012
**********************************************************************
Canada's rich and abundant oil and gas, coal, metal, minerals, and timber endowment is not a curse, and certainly not a "disease." It is a blessing and comparative advantage. These are assets that must be carefully and strategically managed and nurtured.
**********************************************************************

OK, we DO havee asserts, oil and natural gas, amnd forersts and coal ect.... Or rather forign owened comapnies hire our labour to export the capital they prodcue- while they still pay 1.50 a litre to drive to their jobs. The resoucres we ahve are simply not being managed well .They're being sold off at rock bottme prices and we let them even as we know our resources can't last forever.
Nobody, least of all a a blue collar like Mucliar SAYS the RESOURCES are a diesese, thats a lie and a willing twist on his words- somethign I'd expect from a Conservative MP but not a Liberal writter.
12:04 PM on 05/21/2012
*fits the textbook definition of Dutch Disease." No it doesn't. Among others, Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney and Jack University of Calgary economist Jack Mintz don't believe the term applies to Canada. In fact, many economists from The Netherlands don't believe that this so-called "disease" ever really existed there, either*
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Ok. You're wrong. And so are they. And so are the tiny minority of Dutch and Canadian economists who also disagree.

The dolalr IS being drivn up to high due to artificially inflated oil prices. Bad enough that it isen't even Canadian companies ot own this oil or Canadian refineries to process it, but we also take a huge hit in our eastern and BC export markets because nobody in America is goign to buy our producted when our dollar is at par or higher.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Ppaatt
09:16 PM on 05/20/2012
I think Mulcair understands the economy and the country better than this guy, who helps prove the Liberals have become irrelevant.
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04:44 PM on 05/20/2012
Everytime any Canadian industry increases exports, it helps drive the Loonie upwards, since the importing nation must buy Canadian dollars to pay for the goods.

Mulcair is thus arguing against any Canadian industry doing well in international trade. Is this really where he wants to position himself?
09:58 AM on 05/20/2012
Daniel, you have ignored Mulcair's most salient point: Polluters should pay!
Why should the investors in the tarsands keep environmental costs free profits?
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04:38 PM on 05/20/2012
So which is it? Are we talking about the economy or about pollution?

Cause if it's about pollution, Mulcair shouldn't mind retracting his ill-advised comments about the economy.
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The Canadian
Stop Harper
04:39 AM on 05/20/2012
The NDP isn't ready for prime time? This from a guy who used to be a candidate for a party that thought Ignatieff was a viable leader and got wiped off the floor in the last election.

I think the NDP, with their 100+ seats in Parliament, is more than ready for new challenges, and I'd trust their views more than anything from some has-been Liberal hack.
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logicanada
Blogger, radio co-host, writer, editor, voice-over
03:16 PM on 05/20/2012
Ignatieff was a PC subversive plant. Prove I'm wrong.
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TT Esty1
Failure is a temporary condition.
10:37 PM on 05/20/2012
Ignatieff was a University graduate. He travelled and worked in other countries. He showed a capacity to use intelligence and reason. Therefore, could not have been a Conservative. Prove that I'm wrong.
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The Canadian
Stop Harper
10:11 AM on 05/21/2012
Well, however it came about, he was a very poor choice for leader.
08:21 PM on 05/19/2012
Oh, this was written by a Liberal candidate? It reads like it was written by a Conservative candidate - and if you want to know why the Liberal party has 34 seats, that's why. In BC, the last NDP government did fine especially given the mess they inherited, and averaged higher (and more equitable) economic growth than the Liberals have since.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
logicanada
Blogger, radio co-host, writer, editor, voice-over
06:20 PM on 05/19/2012
Anyone who quotes libertarian experts from the University of Calgary loses credibility as the words leave their lips.
05:56 PM on 05/19/2012
"""""A strong currency is a desirable thing, overall""""""


REALLY? ---then perhaps you can explain why china is so reluctant to let their currency appreciate vis a vis the US dollar -----

the chinese are likely to tell you to get lost --the weak currency gives us a huge competitive advantage and we are not about to give it up
04:59 PM on 05/19/2012
The first nations people of Kuwait live just like our first nations people because of how we have handled our oil resources in western Canada. Do you agree?
03:46 PM on 05/19/2012
"Investment dollars vacated or took a pass to go elsewhere and build what should have been built right here in Canada."

"There's absolutely nothing preventing us having a thriving resource sector while growing other facets of our broad-based economy, including manufacturing. In fact, they can and should complement each other and are far from mutually exclusive."

"Citations Needed"
03:40 PM on 05/19/2012
This isn't a news article - it's a one-sided opinion piece fueled by partisan propaganda, most of which is blatantly false. Mulcair has never said the tar sands should be shut down. Dutch Disease is definitely affecting Canada, although the degree of affect is still in debate and cannot be known for certain for another 5 or so years. The BC NDP did a great job economically considering the mess it inherited; DV's disdain for the NDP (and the typical hyperbole that goes with it) apparently trumps any facts or evidence. On a plus for the writer - his penchant for ignoring facts and evidence could easily land him a job as a Harper Conservative.
03:39 PM on 05/19/2012
"A platitude is a trite, meaningless, biased, or prosaic statement, often presented as if it were significant and original. The word derives from plat, the French word for "flat." Whether any given statement is considered to have meaning is highly subjective, so platitude is often—but not always—used as a pejorative term to describe seemingly profound statements that a certain person views as unoriginal or shallow. Examples of statements which could be considered platitudes could be "The power of friendship", "Go with the flow", "Everything happens for a reason", "If it's meant to be, it's meant to be", and "We need to do what we can do."

Wikipedia