Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
Diane Francis

GET UPDATES FROM Diane Francis
 

Canada Joins the Debt Danger Zone

Posted: 12/21/11 05:50 PM ET

The old British-France rivalry burst onto front stage when France's central banker responded to rumours that France would lose its Triple A status by saying Britain should first because it was in worse shape.

It was poor form and irrelevant to France's situation.

But Britain's predicament is serious too due to its ticking fiscal bomb of unfunded pension obligations to past and present public sector workers. This, by the way, is the case in most developed nations, including, but to a lesser extent, the U.S. and Canada.

Britain's unfunded pension promises, made to the 25 per cent of its public sector workforce, amounts to more than £2 trillion or 88 per cent of its $2.25 trillion economy.

"The Government has been borrowing off its own employees by promising them pensions in the future in return for work carried out in the past. Members of public sector pension schemes have a bigger claim on future taxpayers than the investors holding government bonds do," said John Ball, head of defined benefit pension consulting at Towers Watson in London last year.

Put another way, the public debt of Britain is now at 90.8 per cent of GDP but would be 178.8 per cent if the unfunded public pension liability were added.

It's no wonder that Britain last month suffered a debilitating one-day public sector strike against essential services after it began slashing retirement benefits. This is only the beginning. The government must crush its public sector promises to survive.

Britain's not alone, as a couple of recent reports have pointed out.

In 2009, a tri-national organization called the British North-American Committee (BNAC), estimated unfunded public pension liabilities (including military forces) for the U.S., Canada, and UK were equivalent to 15 per cent of the US GDP; 12 per cent of the Canadian GDP and 64 per cent of the UK GDP. It spotted the catastrophic British situation as unique.

It is clear that the UK stands out as having a major, and distinctive, problem in relation to its public sector pension promises. This has been brought about because a large majority of the UK public workforce have generous, fully index-linked final salary pensions which are completely unfunded, whereas funded [partially or fully] public schemes are the norm in the US and Canada.

Last week, the C.D. Howe Institute issued a report written by Alexandre Laurin and Bill Robson that noted a similar, although less severe, situation involving the Canadian federal government. It also stated that the government had not updated the size of its obligation for some time and quantified how the unfunded pension issue skews budgetary figures.

As of March 2011, Ottawa's net pension obligation was $227 billion, $80 billion more than reported in the Public Accounts. "Restatement of the debt affects annual budget balances: the surpluses reported from 2001/02 to 2007/08 were smaller [or were deficits] and the deficits since then were much larger," concluded the report. "In 2010/11 alone, the deficit would not have been the $31 billion reported, but half again larger: almost $47 billion."

Put another way, Canada's public debt of $551 billion or 35 per cent of its GDP of $1.557 trillion is understated: if the $227 billion pension obligation were added it would amount to 50 per cent of the GDP.

Then there's the provincial government debts which also have been often conveniently absent from statements as to Canada's debt-to-GDP ratio, but shouldn't because Ottawa guarantees them.

Canada's spendthrift governments (namely Ontario and Quebec) will surpass Ottawa's $551 billion debt shortly. And the ratings agencies are becoming wise to their ways.

Ontario received a "negative" warning from Moody's Investors Service this week. "The negative outlook on the province reflects the softening economic outlook, Ontario's growing debt burden, and the extended timeframe to achieving a balanced budget," said Moody's.

As of March 2011, Quebec's gross debt reached $173.4 billion and its various other guarantees brought the total to $225 billion. Ontario estimated that by next March, its debt will be $257.3 billion plus others estimate another 10 per cent guaranteed by the province elsewhere.

That brings their total to $507.3 billion.

About the only good news is that provincial and municipal pension obligations are mostly fully-funded. The other good news is that the three westernmost provinces have small ratio debts or no debt such as Alberta.

But the bad news is that the tally of federal debt at $551 billion, Ontario/Quebec debt at $507.3 billion, about $103.4 billion for the other provinces and the federal unfunded pension liability of $227 billion add up to $1.388 trillion or a debt-to-GDP ratio of 89.1 per cent.

This is only slightly less than Ireland. Canada is in the danger zone and as taxpayers sustain blows to their paycheques and portfolios and private-sector pensions, the governments in Canada (Alberta excepted) must tighten their belts and slash the pay and benefits of all of their public employees.

 

Follow Diane Francis on Twitter: www.twitter.com/@dianefrancis1

The old British-France rivalry burst onto front stage when France's central banker responded to rumours that France would lose its Triple A status by saying Britain should first because it was in wors...
The old British-France rivalry burst onto front stage when France's central banker responded to rumours that France would lose its Triple A status by saying Britain should first because it was in wors...
 
 
  • Comments
  • 18
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Favorites
Recency  | 
Popularity
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Thomas Green
06:47 PM on 12/31/2011
Should we follow the last 30 years worth of American boom and bust? I'd rather take our nice secure system that hasn't blown up in our face. I'll take that over gambling with an economy on the stock markets.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
logicanada
Blogger, radio co-host, writer, editor, voice-over
08:22 PM on 12/24/2011
Yeay. We have pension debt. Let's appoint more Senators and make it even bigger !

Wanna lower debt ?
Dissolve the Senate.
Make MP'S work for 16 years before pension eligibility.
Get out of all wars.
Tax corporations.
Collect all outstanding taxes.
Stop Harper.
10:06 AM on 12/24/2011
Diane Francis is clearly unaware of the fact that control of one's own currency puts a country in a very different position from counterparts that do not control their own currency. Britain can always print another pound, Canada can always print another dollar to pay off the latest obligation, France and Ireland must check to see if they still have euros available for that. Investors seem to know what Francis does not and see no risk in Britain, the US and Canada, and plenty of risk in France, Germany, and Ireland.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Aesops
Appearances often are deceiving
11:49 PM on 12/24/2011
Yeah that's the problem with Europe, they can't print enough money. If they could only learn to print more money all of their long term solvency issues would be solved. Because wealth comes from a printing press.
04:26 PM on 12/25/2011
It does. All production requires payment. Deciding that production must not happen because no more money can be printed is a stupid decision to make but this is what the hard money brigade demands.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Norma Ward
03:28 PM on 12/23/2011
However they may report the numbers, Ottawa is not showing the deficit in the public sector pension plan as shown here:

http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2011/12/canadas-hidden-80-billion-public.html

This shortfall actually adds $80 billion to the overall debt since Canadian taxpayers are on the hook, one way or another.
02:43 PM on 12/23/2011
gee, here's a novel idea. Instead of "must tighten their belts and slash the pay and benefits of all of their public employees." who worked in good faith on the promises made to them. Let's instead slash the elected members pensions, eliminate corp benefits/breaks/grants from the same govs, close loopholes and equally tax the 1% and same said corps instead
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Aesops
Appearances often are deceiving
11:50 PM on 12/24/2011
Yeah and give all private sector employees the same defined benefit pensions as public employees.
02:30 AM on 12/23/2011
The writer states "Alberta excepted", but this is not a good idea. Alberta has deficits too, and any deflation of the oil bubble makes it vulnerable. In these uncertain economic and environmental times, Alberta should not be viewed as extremely reliable. Alberta's refusal to develop any significant secondary industry is shortsighted and dangerous.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Aesops
Appearances often are deceiving
11:55 PM on 12/24/2011
Wow - someone with some foresight; commendable. Someone that doesn't just take the "oil going to inifinity story" without critical thought.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
JBSCanada
They paved Paradise and put up a parking lot!
01:14 AM on 12/23/2011
Here's an easy, fun, interactive world debt map. Just click on any country for stats. Make certain you first move the slider bar at the bottom - to the year you wish to investigate.

The Economist - World debt comparison - The global debt clock
Our interactive overview of government debt across the planet

http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock
georgee2
My Canada Includes Everyone
01:54 PM on 12/22/2011
How about this. Our governments stop subsidizing business. Stop spending on all the silly things like renaming the Canadian Forces, prisons, and adding 30 new seats in the House of Commons, jet fighters we don't need. Move the HST back to 7% and start raising taxes. All I ever read or hear is how we never have money for people but every day I read or hear how we just gave 2 million to this business, 6 million to that business, or recently the best of all 50 million. Foolish me, I thought we were broke.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Aesops
Appearances often are deceiving
11:52 PM on 12/24/2011
Are we not subsidizing public employees and MP's with defined benefit pensions? Who said the minority should get this benefit guaranteed on the backs of private sector workers?
09:07 AM on 12/26/2011
Public pensions are part of the wages of these employees and are used to retain them. There would very little savings if the pensions were simply converted to base wages as is done in the private sector. The problem isn't the pensions its the governments ignoring their own requirements to keep the funds from going into shortfall. The law is that these funds have to be fully funded and any short falls are required within five years to be funded.

All governments have ignored the law and instead show better figures on their budgets than is reality. Kind of like not paying your mortgage and buying a new car every year, the neighbours think your doing good until you lose the house.