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Gerald McEachern

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Waking Up to the End of the World as We Know It

Posted: 03/29/2012 8:18 pm

Damn, just when we were just starting to have fun we find out our version of the world won't exist for our kids. Don't take my word. That's what four MIT researchers wrote in a presentation to the Club of Rome in 1972. It was later published as a book, The Limits of Growth.

What authors Meadows, Meadows, Randers and Behrens did was run one of the first computer models on exponential consumption of natural resources, which is now the standard way of calculating the longevity of resource reserves. The pegging of peak oil came from the same sort of projections.

I confess that I caught a major infection of Peak Oil Fever a few years ago. It was one of the reasons our family decided to stay on the East Coast. We wanted to explore a more sustainable way of living that might include relocalizing the economy, reskilling the local people, and retooling ourselves to prepare for a drastic reduction of cheap fossil fuel.

So I scoured through everything I could find on the Internet. (There's a lot.) I learned that there's enough energy in a single gallon of gas to do the work of one man working 8-hour-days for two weeks. I learned the world uses 80 million barrels of oil a day, and that the U.S. alone uses a quarter of that. And I learned OPEC and others have been lying to the international public, overestimating the size of their reserves.

It occurred to me that a post-fossil fuel sustainability demonstration project might be a good idea. And why not create one out here, on the sleepy East Coast of Canada? In an odd bit of circumstance I ended up in a meeting with Frank McKenna, former provincial premier, former Canadian ambassador to the U.S., VP of TD Bank, etc., and chatted about the idea.

I showed him a graph that tied just about every modern growth pattern (from industry to information) to the exponential use of fossil fuel over the past 150 years. I pointed to the top of the curve, Peak Oil, and the rapid decline, which would become critical in my view by 2040 when the world's population would still be rising dramatically. I said, "We have about 30 years left."

He brushed the graph aside and looked at me flatly. He told me that he was sitting on the board of a major oil company and that the crisis isn't 30 years out. It's considerably less than that.

That was a bit of a showstopper. I left feeling a bit naĂ¯ve, realizing that industry guys had been on the same page for decades. And I remembered reading that the CIA had come up with the same conclusions in the 1950s, and some old physics dude, Dr. Albert Bartlett, had been writing about the dangers of exponential growth since 1969 at least.

And now their math is showing up in the news. As I write this the headline at the top of the Huffington Post screams SQUEEZED: Canada's Gasoline Hikes the Highest in the Developed World, Why is it So Expensive?

Well, duh. We're running out of the stuff. And oil is the biggest symptom of what's to come, which many predict as economic Armageddon. There's the respected work of Lester Brown, Jared Diamond or Joseph Tainter, whose excellent 1988 book, The Collapse of Complex Societies is still a very topical read.

Just off the top here are 12 critical issues we face:

1. Decline of fossil fuel while consumption-production grows exponentially
2. Continuing resource wars, ongoing since 1991 and possibly before
3. Ever-deepening dependence on complexity and technology requiring large energy inputs
4. Centralization of capital-intensive wealth pumps putting control into the hands of a few
5. Widening gap between rich and poor, and a rising poverty line
6. Revoking of civil liberties, spying, preparation for authoritarian control
7. Sell-off of democracy to corporate interests, rise of plutocracies and oligarchies
8. Overshooting the sustainable resource capacity of Earth
9. Weakening of the environmental movement
10. Privatizing and exploiting the commons
11. Decline of public education and of impartial news media
12. Industrial degradation of agricultural land and threats to local food security.

What concerns me, and should concern all of us, is how these important resource issues are being studiously avoided by our national politicians and the mainstream media. And how new policies aimed at social control and the restricting of our rights are being quietly implemented. On Sundays, no less.

On March 16, Barack Obama signed the National Defense Resources Preparedness executive order, which gives the U.S. President the power of command and control over all energy, production, transportation, food, and water resources for national defense and national security -- not just limited to war.

Add to that the recent National Defense Authorization Act that allows the president to enter any country in the world to detain and hold any U.S. citizen without trial, and one sees the picture unfolding.

New trade and security agreements with the U.S. will create a more porous border with the States which is a good thing for trade, but not necessarily for the privacy and security of people in Canada, who can now be investigated with shared information -- and jointly pursued here --by U.S. police and military personnel integrated with the RCMP.

But it's not so much what is happening as why. As resources become scarce the U.S. will need to increasingly step up control of its resource empire. Which very much includes Canada -- and keeping their free trade door open to our resources and their business interests.

Canada has the highest rate of corporate foreign ownership in the developed world with over 50 percent of our petroleum industry and 50 percent of our manufacturing sector owned and controlled by foreign interests (compared to just 4 percent in the U.S., U.K., France, Germany, Scandinavia and Italy). Canada's leading resource companies such as Alcan and Stelco have been sold off. So have large western tar sands projects, to companies such as China's PetroChina.

And what do we get for the foreign investment? Multi-million-dollar bonus payouts to the Canadian managers who arrange the buyouts. A shift of control out of Canada. The loss of innovation jobs, and the move from a design and production economy to a branch-plant economy of resource suppliers. And an ever more arrogant, risk-adverse, western-energy-focused Canadian business and political elite.

Of course there are government resource royalties, which go into things like the Alberta Heritage Fund. But wait a minute. The province stopped contributing oil revenues to that in 1987. And the fund has only grown from $12 billion to $15.4 billion in the quarter century since then.

But with a population of just 1.3 million more than the province of Alberta, Norway has managed to sock away over $570 billion in revenues from its North Sea oil since 1990. That's a whopping 3,700 percent more than we've saved, and gives a rather unflattering financial picture of who we are as Canadians and how we view the future.

As for my local sustainability experiment? Complete. Fail. The community wasn't ready. And neither was I, for its resounding apathy.

And that crazy MIT report? It was recently reviewed and its projections for economic and social collapse are right on track for the doomsday timeline. Having watched this since the 1970s, I have to wonder. Is it that we're stupid? Greedy? Or just can't wrap our minds around the possibility of a dramatically different future, which doesn't allow for exponential success?

One thing is certain. If Canada doesn't wake up soon, the world as we know it, and all our most easily harvested non-renewable resources -- including fish, according to Dr. Boris Worm -- will be gone before 2050.

Me? I'll be gone by then, too. And other than buying a hybrid car, I'm officially out of answers for my kids. How about you?

 
 
 
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12:22 PM on 04/05/2012
I agree with the supportive comments above. Thanks Gerald for a great summary of the perilous state we find ourselves in through trusting governments and corporate leaders who minimize and completely fail to address all the issues urgently pressing upon us.

It is wrong to suggest there are no ideas or way out. There are lots of ideas which could lead us to an equitable, prosperous world society if they were implemented. If. Of course, most of these ideas are the opposite of existing conventional/governmental/corporate policies. It isn't enough to "get out and vote" at this late date since there are very few people in power propagating ideas to turn this tsunami back. some very fundamental changes are needed and they won't happen if a large number of people don't get informed and get off the couch, and actually participate. Raise your voice, read Noam Chomsky, and tell your local representatives (cc your neighbours, your premier and Stephen Harper of course) what a disastrous mess they are making and how you would like to see the country run.
06:59 AM on 04/02/2012
I'm not out of ideas.
1. Promote direct democracy instead of proportional representation. We have access to electronic devices for remote voting. Ask the people directly to answer questions regarding national, regional and local problems.
2. Develop a 'healthy' cigarette. Help 2 billion people, 7 million Canadians, quit smoking. Reduce and eliminate smoking related deaths and diseases.
3. Promote a hydrogen economy. Remove our dependence on carbon-based fuels; coal, oil, natural gas. Toronto smog is nothing compared to 'Asian Brown Cloud' pollution!

The trouble is that no one is listening!!!!
04:55 PM on 04/01/2012
Wow,what a downer. Why can you not just have faith and believe in the power of an unregulated market to create wealth for all? Hasn't that worked before? (Ever?)

The invisible hand will provide. Gold will trickle down upon us from above! (Or at least for those in the energy and finance fields - the rest of us will be serfs.)
02:57 PM on 04/01/2012
Things standing in the way of stopping this disaster are:
a) the religulous. They know they will be raptured.
b) plain ordinary greed. Does having forty billion make you happier than having twenty billion ? The shoort answer is no. Sharing makes you happy. Being kind makes you happy.
c) being suckered into thinking you have to have twenty pairs of jeans or a new coat every year. Or that buying at WalMart is a saving.
d) equating having a lot means you are a lot better than those who don't have a lot.
e) that you can't manage to live the way the whole of the world lived a hundred years ago.

I walk, avoid plastic, avoid paper, reuse, recycle and I still have way too much. I am way more energy efficient than anyone I know and I still waste a huge amount of energy. My garbage output is almost nil and my city is sure my water meter is broken because I use so little water but I know I can use less water.
01:32 PM on 04/02/2012
Great input, Pinkibus. Thanks. Your no-nonsense take is refreshing. We all have too much. I'm trying to be a minimalist but society-in-general makes it hard.
12:49 PM on 04/01/2012
Good Post!!!
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12:33 PM on 04/01/2012
This is a fantastic piece Gerald, thanks for your time and effort. As stewards of such a large portion of the Worlds' resources, Canadians have done a terrible job.
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albertarick
These are questions for wise men with skinny arms
11:06 AM on 04/01/2012
The lack of foresight in Alberta and Canada with regard to the proper use and management of our resources requires dramatic changes in order to avoid being steamrolled by globalizations worst aspects. In the article it is mentioned that Alberta has not contributed to the Heritage Fund since 1987, amazingly the same year we said goodbye to the last truly progressive Premier this province has seen, Peter Lougheed. Since then with the firesaleing /Neo-conservative mentality incubating in Alberta and spreading across Canada, the results speak for themselves. I do however, think that action. by those of us who care about this country, can change the direction that we are heading.
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Sheria Reid
02:26 AM on 04/01/2012
I do take issue with your observations regarding the National Defense Resources Preparedness Executive Order. At first, I thought that perhaps I was wrong as to the scope of this EO so I read it. It is exactly as I thought. This Executive Order delegates authority to various agency Secretaries and addresses national defense resource policies and programs under the Defense Production Act of 1950, as amended. It doesn't expand the President's authority. It reiterates a standard government readiness policy and echoes similar orders issued by Clinton, George W. Bush, Truman, Eisenhower and a line of U.S. presidents since 1950. The Defense Production Act was a response to the Cold War.

I think the confusion may be due to some of the U.S. right wing media's efforts ongoing efforts to demonize President Obama and declare him not only to be the anti-Christ but desirous of wielding absolute power. The general litany is that this EO gives Obama absolute authority over everything even during peace time. Not true, not even a little bit. The best layman's article (sans legalese) that I've read on the topic is by Asawin Suebsaeng in the March 30 online edition of Mother Jones, "The Right's Obama Martial Law #Fail." As the article points out, "The President of the United States can't reform the nation's entire economy and war policy through a single executive order." If he could it would make Congress obsolete and the Constitution just a nice piece of paper.
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Sheria Reid
02:25 AM on 04/01/2012
There is a lot of merit in many of the issues that you raise, particularly our over use of energy resources and the observation that those energy resources are not infinite. Obfuscation of these issues by governments has left much of the public clueless and unconcerned about addressing possible solutions. The first step in addressing the coming and inevitable crisis is educating and convincing the public that we're in already in the quicksand and sinking.
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Felix99
Born to be mild!!!!
09:12 PM on 03/31/2012
A wonderfully written article, Gerald!! But, sad, sad, sad!!! Greed, greed, greed. Some years ago David Suzuki (sp) says he asked a banker, `What is enough...`` (Darn, my keyboard somehow got into French characters and I don`t know how to get out of them!) The Banker looked at him like he had just arrived from Mars, and walked away.

Personally, I had decided, with no good reason except by that time I will be well and truly dead, that by 2050 the consequences of global warming: raising water levels, melting of the glaciers, etc. whose run off is feeding many major cities, loss of arible land and the means to feed the expanding world population, which will no longer be expanding because of disease, loss of land, and the inability (and probably lack of desire) to keep feeding it.

Thanks again, Gerald.
08:50 PM on 03/31/2012
three things to teach your kids

always use birth control
dont smoke
never vote for or support conservatives
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BigLittle
07:44 PM on 03/31/2012
What a fine piece of work. I'm bookmarking this.
Books like Limits to Growth, The Poverty of Power, Soft Energy Paths, etc., they all predicted this.
01:42 PM on 03/31/2012
"I'm officially out of answers for my kids. How about you?"

Easy, tell them to vote and vote carefully and don't watch attack ads on TV. In fact don't watch TV news at all.
12:38 PM on 03/31/2012
Straight talk. Appreciated. How best to combat - besides all we're trying to do in our homes and driveways? How do we shift public perception? Most of us know to support Made in Canada and to avoid the alternatives - but how to we reverse the sell-all trend? Are you saying it's too late?
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WeeTadBit
11:29 AM on 03/31/2012
Gerald, great article. My son, as a young entrepreneur, has a business based on green alternatives and it breaks my heart to see his level of frustration; very few people are focused on these important issues. I give him words of encouragement, but my heart sinks at the stark realities you've set out in your article. More young people, in particular, need to hone in on these issues and be willing to take stewardship.