Andrea Horwath needs to do some more reading before she decides to negotiate further with Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty. Specifically, she needs to read more Machiavelli; The Prince, in particular.
Last week the Huffington Post reported that Horwath's New Democratic Party was backing off one of their key budget demands. It could have been a make-or-break deal in getting the NDP's support for the Liberal budget.
The NDP's original demand was for the province to remove the provincial portion of the harmonized sales tax from home heating bills (HST is 13 per cent; eight percent to the province, five per cent to the federal government). Her plan would have given tax relief to millions of Ontario homeowners.
For that concession, among others, the NDP would support the minority Liberals and prevent the tenuous McGuinty government from collapsing, thus triggering another provincial election.
Instead, Horwath chose to drop that demand, and instead to push for the government to tax the rich more.
This is the wrong, wrong, wrong strategy. The rich are few. The people are many. Horwath has not read her Machiavelli otherwise she would have chosen differently. She chose to abandon her strength (the people) while attacking those few (the rich) who are not her supporters anyway. Bad choice. No, a really bad choice.
Cue the countdown clock to the NDP leadership review...
In Chapter IX of The Prince, Machiavelli wrote what Horwath should be reading, and considering:
"...a prince can never protect himself from a hostile people, because there are too many of them. But he can secure himself from the nobles, as they are few in number."
McGuinty will balk, because the Liberal party (as well as the Conservative party) get much of their financial support from the upper-middle to upper class. The NDP, however, gets their financial backing from unions, and working class families, who are the majority of voters. The working class families will be hurt by the HST on fuel bills, but not helped at all by the tax on the rich.
McGuinty doesn't want to tax the rich, probably because he has read Machiavelli, who also wrote:
"The worst that a prince may expect from a hostile people is to be abandoned by them; but from hostile nobles he has not only to fear abandonment, but also that they will rise against him. The nobles have more foresight and cunning. They always act in time to save themselves, and to seek favours from him whom they expect to win."
Even if the rich are taxed more, they won't care because it's merely a temporary annoyance. The NDP will never get into power, so the rich can ignore them, and back any party that promises to repeal those extra taxes next election. Odds are McGuinty will promise that next campaign if he is forced to concede that demand to Horwarth to save his rule now. Certainly Tim Hudak will make that promise.
McGuinty surely realizes that the worst he can lose is an election, and he has about the same chances of getting re-elected as he had last time around. But if he saves his backers, he will still have a chance to rise again with their funding. Politics is not just about issues; it's about the money.
Horwath doesn't get it. Pushing for a new tax bracket for the super rich doesn't matter to the public except as a token gesture. It's the hollow act of an ideologue. It doesn't help the average homeowner, the working stiff, the seniors, and those tens of thousands struggling on a small fixed income.
Last week's concession from the NDP was paired with another media release announcing an eight per cent increase in hydro costs, starting next month. Horwath's demand to reduce the HST could have helped offset that, and made her the hero of millions of Ontario residents. She chose to ignore that opportunity.
The NDP had the power to gain a significant concession from the minority Liberals, and bend the budget to their alleged goals as the party of the working class. Plus they had a real opportunity to win huge accolades, and public affection. Instead, Horwath dropped the ball, and has left the Liberals to continue to pummel working class taxpayers.
My recommendation for NDP supporters is simple: deduct the amount of the provincial portion of the HST on your home heating bills from any future donation you make to the party. That should send an unmistakeable message to the NDP's leaders who chose to pursue this dead-end strategy.