I always thought that when the United States elected its first female president that it would be a nail biter -- a down-to-the-wire race that would keep us up late on election night before it was official, but Hillary Clinton's presidency is shaping up to be a coronation.
The Clinton candidacy is already underway, and at this point it's doubtful that anyone else will bother unless it is to get some name recognition for 2024. According to the Washington Post, Clinton is "the biggest frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination ever." That distinction doesn't even take Bill into account. Bill Clinton is the best campaigner I've ever seen and has been an incredible fundraiser for his own campaigns, for other Democrats and for causes he supports.
So, unless something incredibly dramatic happens we can just go ahead and slot Hillary in as the Democratic candidate. She'll hit the campaign trail, in the general election, with Bill and the Obamas by her side (not to mention whoever her VP pick is).
But, Hillary still has to beat the Republicans right? Sure she'll have an incredible amount of money and a political all star team (including two former two-term presidents) out campaigning for her but that doesn't guarantee anything!
The truth is that none of that guaranteed it, but Chris Christie probably did. Christie was the only republican to lead Hillary Clinton in national polling, but that isn't true anymore. Thanks to his public implosion Christie isn't even a serious contender for the Republican nomination anymore.
The favourites now are Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush. As of today, Clinton has a slight lead over all of them and a stronger national favourability. She will also have a fundraising advantage and a campaigning advantage. The GOP has very few veterans they can bring out who would be a positive on the campaign trail. Also, if the GOP nominates Jeb Bush it will be interesting to see him campaign, without reminding voters of the George W. Bush presidency.
So, Hillary will be able outspend and out-campaign the Republicans. She'll be relatively unbruised from what should be a cake walk of a primary. She'll be able to run for President while the Republicans run for, what is likely to be, a bitterly contested nomination. She'll be able to fundraise while the Republicans run ads against each other. She'll be able to effectively be in 5 states, or locations, at once with her VP, Bill Clinton, Barack and Michelle Obama all criss-crossing the country rallying supporters and donations. That is not the end of her advantages though.
Jeb Bush and Mike Huckabee are both popular with the Republican base (something Mitt Romney was not) but the Republican base is divided like never before. Moderate voters are fleeing the Republican Party. Those voters might have supported Christie before his implosion but it's not clear that they'll come back for Bush or Huckabee, not when Hillary can claim the "moderate" mantle without too much difficulty.
Also, the Tea Party members of the Republican base don't really like the evangelical members of the Republican base and vice versa. Catholics and young evangelicals currently seem far more interested in social and economic justice than they are in gay marriage. It is not a huge issue yet, but it will add to the difficulty of any candidate trying to navigate the landscape of the Republican base.
Whoever gets the nomination and whatever platform they settle on, there is a good chance that the Republicans (now a smaller party than they were in 2012) will be divided by the end of the primaries and some faction(s) may sit out of the general election cycle.
So, in summary, Hillary Clinton has spent most of her adult life in politics in some capacity. She has been an activist, graduate of Yale Law school, a governor's wife, the first lady, a senator and Secretary of State. Despite Republican Attempts since the early 90s to link her to scandal she hasn't committed one really serious blunder to date and in 2016 the Republicans only real hope is that Hillary Clinton will beat Hillary Clinton.
U. S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton waits to speak as she is introduced at Singapore Management University, Saturday, Nov. 17, 2012, in Singapore.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton gestures as she speaks during a ceremony in recognition of World AIDS Day, Thursday, Nov. 29, 2012, at the State Department in Washington, where she released The U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, (PEPFAR) Blueprint' for Creating an AIDS- Free Generation.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton speaks at a press conference at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, Wednesday Dec. 5, 2012. NATO foreign ministers were set Wednesday to shift their focus to the way forward in Afghanistan during a second day of talks in Brussels, as the military alliance prepares to withdraw its combat troops in 2014.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton gestures as she gives a speech: "Frontlines and Frontiers: Making Human Rights a Human Reality," Thursday, Dec. 6, 2012, at Dublin City University in Dublin, Ireland.
In this Dec. 1, 2012 file photo, Actress Meryl Streep uses her iPhone to get a photo of her and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton following the State Department Dinner for the Kennedy Center Honors gala at the State Department in Washington.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton speaks during a Global Townterview at the Newseum in Washington, Tuesday, Jan. 29, 2013.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on the deadly September attack on a US diplomatic mission in Benghazi, Libya (Foto vom 23.01.13).
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton smiles before speaking on American leadership at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, Thursday, Jan. 31, 2013.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton laughs as she gives a speech during a ceremony honoring her at the Pentagon, Thursday, Feb. 14, 2013, where outgoing Defense Secretary Leon Panetta presented her with the Defense Department's Medal for Distinguished Public Service.
This April 2, 2013, file photo shows former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton addressing the Vital Voices Global Partnership 2013 Global Leadership Awards gala at the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington. Clinton is getting plenty of encouragement to run for president in 2016. Her re-emergence this past week after a two-month break brought out cheering supporters when she gave speeches focused on the issues of women and girls around the world.
Hillary Clinton greets the audience during a Yale Law School ceremony at Yale University, Saturday, Oct. 5, 2013, in New Haven, Conn. Clinton received the Yale Law School Association Award of Merit, which is presented annually to those who have made a substantial contribution to public service or the legal profession.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, left, poses onstage for a photograph with Elton John after receiving her Founders award during the Elton John AIDS Foundation's 12th Annual "An Enduring Vision" benefit gala at Cipriani Wall Street on Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2013, in New York.
In a Monday, Aug. 12, 2013 file photo, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks to the American Bar Association Annual Meeting Monday, Aug. 12, 2013, in San Francisco. Clinton spoke about maintaining the Voting Rights Act and received a medal from the association. The former secretary of state will receive the Elton John AIDS Foundation's first Founder's Award for her support of gay rights. In a statement Wednesday, Sept. 4, 2013, the foundation cited a 2011 speech in which Clinton asserted that gay rights were human rights for helping envision a world without AIDS.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton walks to the podium after receiving the Liberty Medal during a ceremony at the National Constitution Center, Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2013, in Philadelphia. The honor is given annually to an individual who displays courage and conviction while striving to secure liberty for people worldwide.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton addresses a gala celebrating the 10th anniversary of the Center for American Progress at the Mellon Auditorium October 24, 2013 in Washington, DC. Co-founded by former Clinton Administration Chief of Staff John Podesta, the liberal public policy research and advocacy organization is a think tank that rivals conservative policy groups, such as the Heritage Foundation and the American Enterprise Institute.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton speaks after receiving the National Defense Foundation University's (NDU) American Patriot Award during a gala dinner at the Ronald Reagan Center in Washington, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2013. The American Patriot Award annually recognizes leaders of extraordinary caliber who have strengthened America?s strategic interests and advanced global security.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton walks past the Presidential seal in the East Room of the White House in Washington, Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2013, after a ceremony where President Barack Obama awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom to former President Bill Clinton and others.
Former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks after receiving the 2013 Lantos Human Rights Prize during a ceremony on Capitol Hill in Washington on December 6, 2013.
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