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Matt Price

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Canadian Jobs Lost to the Tar Sands

Posted: 01/05/2012 10:42 am

Just because something is a bit complicated, it doesn't mean you can ignore it, especially when it's hurting you.

And yet, this appears to be the case with the loss of hundreds of thousands of manufacturing jobs in the past several years -- 627,000 by one measure -- mostly in Ontario and Quebec where these jobs have historically existed.

The phenomenon even has a name already: "Dutch Disease." Canada now has a bad case of it, yet you won't hear the government in Ottawa talk about it, since that would run counter to its blinkered agenda of accelerating the strip mining of Northern Alberta to push more oil through pipelines to China and America.

The term "Dutch Disease" was coined in the 1970s after the Netherlands discovered a large natural gas field. The country's exchange rate became tied to the rising price of natural gas, pricing its manufacturing goods out of international markets and leading to job losses.

In 2011, the Canadian dollar traded on average above the U.S. dollar for the first time since 1976. This puts an extra burden on Canadian companies who export, since it makes their products less competitive versus products from other countries.

While experts will tell you there are various factors behind our exchange rate, it's hard not to see the close correlation between the price of oil and the exchange rate, charted in a graph here. Thanks to increased oil production, we now have a petro-dollar that rises and falls with the price of oil.

And, with oil being a finite commodity, its price will only rise, taking our dollar and manufacturing jobs in Ontario and Quebec along with it.

How many? One economist at the University of Ottawa has estimated that 42 per cent of manufacturing job losses in recent years are due to Canada's case of Dutch Disease. Another study out of Montreal points out that while 95 per cent of Canada's oil reserves are in Alberta, 75 per cent of Canada's manufacturing output is located in Eastern Canada, making this a growing issue of regional fairness.

So when you hear boosters argue how great the tar sands are for the Canadian economy, it's a new kind of snake oil, this time of the viscous and toxic kind called "bitumen."

If we were at all serious about both regional economic fairness and about charting a new economic future that isn't based on trashing our planet, we'd reverse the growth of tar sands production and instead invest heavily in the ample renewable energy resources that exist all across the country.

For now, though, leaders in Ontario and Quebec need to recognize the reality of Canada's Dutch Disease and stand up for their citizens by working to pull Ottawa's head out of the tar sands. Their economies depend on it.

 
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10:32 PM on 01/10/2012
This article completely misses the fact that our largest trading partner spent themselves into a debt so deep they crashed their economy and took their dollar down with it.

Canada's dollar has always been tied to resources. If the manufacturing sector wants to be competitive on the world stage, they need to stop relying on a weak Canadian dollar to prop up their profit margins. They also need to look beyond the US to new markets for their goods.

Find a way to make use of Canada's resources before we ship them off elsewhere, only to buy them back once they're manufactured into finished products. We have lots of oil, why aren't we leading the leading the world in plastics manufacturing? Why isn't BC a huge hub for furniture manufacturing?
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Glass Cannon
Let every eye negotiate for itself.
02:03 PM on 01/10/2012
Yes, our national economy is entirely too dependent on pulling things out of the ground and selling them to other nations. Concentrating on diversity and balance in the economy is a very good thing.
05:55 PM on 01/09/2012
Wow, what a load of tripe in these comments, and the opinion ( not news ) piece.
I live in Alberta, and work in the oilpatch. I moved here from Ontario 20 years ago.

Canadian manufacturing has collapsed because of the collapse of and protectionist ( buy American ) measures of the US, Canada's largest export market.
I deliver groceries to the Rig Camps, and can tell you that the accommodations, although not the Waldorf, are good. Steak night is quite popular, as are the lobster and shrimp. Fresh veggies and fruit are delivered a couple times a week. This is not misery.
The work is hard and dirty, but the pay is awesome. It's hundreds of kms in the bush, away from "civilization".
That's why people, yes men AND women, do it. Then go home to their paid mortgage, and high disposable income.
Another mine has been approved ( Joselyn ) needing 4100 souls to work it for the next 20 years. When was the last time a manufacturer offered that?

Quebec has it right. Look after the people. Social medicine, education and daycare provide the infrastructure that working people need. This is what allows companies to be effective in a global marketplace.
This is what taxes go to. It's what royalties should go to.
The failure of government to take advantage of this resource ( royalty reform ), or to develop more trade markets is the problem here.

What's that got to do with one man's religion?
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logicanada
Blogger, radio co-host, writer, editor, voice-over
04:08 PM on 01/08/2012
I have to laugh at the effort afoot in Alberta (see Albertaagenda.ca - our very own tea party) to seperate Alberta's economy from the rest of Canada's. If the oil industry opens up the way they would like, the whole of this resource would be gobbled up and gone forever within 20 years. Royalties(still not collected) would be balked at, Easterners would return home, imported cheap labour would suddenly become a pariah and the province would be left with about 10 huge farming interests -mostly employing Phillipino's and Europeans.

A recent Explorational Zeitgeist Party of Canada survey asked whether I would support electric cars, solar power, wind power and geothermal power. Anyone with a brain would support all 4 endeavors. The Alberta Tories will tell us we have 100 years supply of oil at current consumption rates, not realizing that there is no such thing a current consumptionrate and that consumption increases at an exponential rate. Conservatives are in it for the quick buck. . . at every level of government.
11:38 PM on 01/07/2012
The patch is an anomaly. If it could be outsourced to China cheaper it would be. Wait till they can't squeeze the costs any other way and start halving the wages like other industries.
01:03 AM on 01/07/2012
Mr. Price ,
What colour is the sky on your planet ?

The Oilsands is the number reason why provinces like Ontario , Quebec and Nfld. have not gone into a total economic Armageddon.
The Premier of Ontario thinks like you and look where their economy / enviro vision of the future is heading. As for the global impact of the OilSands; it's this :

Canada's contribution to global CO2 - 2% TWO PERCENT !!!!

OilSands contribution - 5% of Canada's contribution which makes the Oilsands GLOBAL , I repeat GLOBAL contribution - 0.1 % !!!!

But don't take my word for it - here's a reference to a group that was a main presenter at the Durban Conference . It's not a "shill" for the oil industry .

http://www.iea.org/co2highlights/co2highlights.pdf

The IEA is not a green creationism group or a 'my fuzzy slippers are green. com website

If you think the Oilsands are worst than the coal industry or the offshore US oil industry then you are either a paid shill for "Big Green" or another uninformed person with a soapbox.
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BoredomCorner
05:33 PM on 01/09/2012
How about explaining, then, why the eastern provinces are bleeding jobs in the first place?
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jamster88
12:03 AM on 01/07/2012
Farcical at best.
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BoredomCorner
05:33 PM on 01/09/2012
Prove it wrong, then.
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07:38 PM on 01/06/2012
While oil sands development may be an environmental issue, its not a persuasive argument that this development "costs jobs" in Ontario, Quebec - or indeed even in Alberta. The trend to Central Canada industrial jobs loss has been protracted and extensive. Rather than targeting oil sands, more jobs might be created by reducing Chinese imports sold in Wal Mart stores in Toronto. The only impediment to full and ongoing oil sands exploitation will be the market price for a barrel of oil and the price for extracting oil sands product. - not environmental concerns, not the federal NDP opposition.
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Tony Pepperoni
Where did all the good Republicans go?
04:05 PM on 01/06/2012
Not that I am a big fan of the environmental disaster that is the tar sands, but I certainly don't remember Ontario and Quebec pushing the have fat governments contracts spread more evenly across the country before the price of oil shot up.

I guess we can't have our tar cake and manufacture it too.
03:26 PM on 01/06/2012
All in the service of Industrial Man's headlong rush to self-extermination. Have Canadians seen the climate projection maps that show the Canadian population centers uninhabitable by century's end as global warming accelerates? Hopefully you eastern Canadians can arise against the tar sands disaster and put a stop to it.
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piceaglauca
The picture says it all....
02:40 PM on 01/06/2012
Employment in manufacturing has been shrinking. According to the Annual Survey of Manufacturers, there were 1.3 million manufacturing production workers in 2005, a drop from 1.4 million in 2003. Many of these jobs were lost in Ontario and Quebec.

During the mid- to late-1990s, manufacturing was a major source of new jobs. By 2001, however, the high-tech sector began to collapse and many production workers were laid off. By the end of 2002, employees were being swept from factory floors in droves. Another challenge hit manufacturers when the Canadian dollar rose to a 14-year high in the fourth quarter of 2005. The higher exchange rate made Canadian products more expensive abroad and slowed sales.

The decline in manufacturing jobs that followed is the sharpest since the recession of the early 1990s, when factory jobs vanished at twice the current rate. Quebec and Ontario have seen 90% of the manufacturing job losses nationwide since 2002.
02:15 PM on 01/06/2012
“For now, though, leaders in Ontario and Quebec need to recognize the reality of Canada's Dutch Disease and stand up for their citizens by working to pull Ottawa's head out of the tar sands. Their economies depend on it”

First, what the leaders of Quebec and Ontario need to do is practice sound fiscal management, provide incentives for manufactures to become more efficient and competitive in a global environment. But what have these provinces become; the equivalent of European PIGS countries, which included pathetic fiscal management, and massive overspending. Quebec specifically has European populist social policies in place with massive government spending programs, the highest taxes in North America and massive deficits and debt. Maybe these two provinces and their leaders would be more responsible with their finances if Western Canada cut off the billions of dollars in hand-outs provided to them every year.

Second, many eastern manufacturing firms rely on oil sands development for work. Many eastern families have relocated to western Canada in search of jobs and better lives. The oil/gas development in the west is responsible for providing thousands of jobs for Canadians living in the east but I guess you conveniently left this fact out of your article.

And your opinion is to have “Ottawa pull their heads out of the tar sands”. I see, so let’s shut down the oil sands, eliminating thousands of eastern manufacturing jobs in already struggling economies. Tell me how does this benefit the Ontario and Quebec economies?
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Aesops
Appearances often are deceiving
11:11 PM on 01/06/2012
I think what he is arguing is againt a largely unbalanced economy that is more and more unable to cope with commodity price decreases. I don't discount any of your points though, as they have merit. But the problem arises if the price of oil ever contracts back to historical lows.
03:32 AM on 01/07/2012
Commodities like manufactured goods are both vulnerable to supply and demand. If the Canadian dollar was undervalued and oil prices were low the shift would be to the East.The author is silly and irresponsible to suggest the improvement of one sector at the expense of the other in the same country as ones loss is another gain.
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Warren Yuill
Jesus Built My Hot-Rod
01:29 PM on 01/06/2012
Canada has a resource based economy.
As commodity prices surge so does our dollar.
As we continue to ignore the obvious currency manipulation by the chinese and yet still continue to purchase their 'slave labour' generated cheap consumer goods,our manufacturing sector continues its implosion.
If we dont call China to task on this issue the Canadian worker will be relegated to being "hewers of wood and drawers of water"
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piceaglauca
The picture says it all....
02:42 PM on 01/06/2012
Growth in the manufacturing sector made a noticeable shift westward in 2005. Shipments in British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan have been increasing at a faster pace than in Central Canada. In particular, manufacturers in Alberta and Saskatchewan have made dramatic gains, mostly because of resource-based production of petroleum products and primary metals. The four Western provinces accounted for 21% of all Canadian manufacturing shipments in 2005, compared with 18% in 2000.
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BoredomCorner
05:34 PM on 01/09/2012
We already are.
12:39 PM on 01/06/2012
"For now, though, leaders in Ontario and Quebec need to recognize the reality of Canada's Dutch Disease and stand up for their citizens by working to pull Ottawa's head out of the tar sands. Their economies depend on it".

Actually their economies should depend more on sound fiscal management and leadership. Ontario and Quebec are the equivalent of the PIGS European economies with years of massive overspending and economic mismanagement. Maybe these politicians would be more competent in managing their budgets if Western Canada was to stop giving them billions in hand-outs every year.

Also, I guess you conveniently failed to point out how many manufacturing companies in the east support the oil and gas exploration in western Canada. The oil and gas sectors of the west largely contribute to the economies in the east providing eastern companies with manufacturing contracts while thousands of people employed. Take away resource production and you take away even more eastern jobs.

Stop your ridiculous propoganda and provide realistic and objective opinions.
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12:24 PM on 01/06/2012
So the Dutch dessease eh hmmm It would seem if there was a large discovery of something doesn't really matter what that would tend to drive the prices down not up. Supply and demand get it.
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Glass Cannon
Let every eye negotiate for itself.
02:25 PM on 01/10/2012
It's just that their whole economy became wrapped up in the production of natural gas and weakened the stability of the nation because they lost economic diversity. This is happening in Canada now too.