Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
Hot on the Blog
Raffi Cavoukian
Peter Worthington

GET UPDATES FROM Peter Worthington
 

Don't Discount Obama's "Luck Factor"

Posted: 01/28/2012 10:20 am

When asked what sort of generals he wanted when fighting his European wars, Napoleon is reputed to have responded: "Give me lucky generals."

It was more than a facetious quip. "Luck" does play a role in war but, as in sports and politics, it often comes to those who are prepared and poised to take advantage.

This often gives way to the saying that it's better to be lucky than good.

Just how "good" at his job U.S. President Barack Obama is remains unclear. What isn't in dispute is that he can be lucky. At the moment his luck is spelled S-E-A-L.

Twice now, U.S. Navy SEALs have inadvertently given Obama a boost -- first in their daring raid and assassination of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, and then again by their equally daring parachute drop and rescue by helicopter of two hostages held by Somali pirates or hijackers, who were all killed. There were no "friendly" casualties.

SEAL Team 6 -- the same group that knocked off bin Laden -- is Obama's good luck charm of the moment. Deservedly, the SEALs (acronym for Sea Air Land) relish their elite reputation. So far, they've performed with the dash and efficiency of a Tom Clancy novel or a James Bond movie.

Real life isn't always so co-ordinated and successful.

Obama also should be credited with nerve for approving the rescue venture.

Had things gone wrong in the Pakistan and Somalia raids, Obama would have suffered the consequences -- as Bill Clinton did when, on his watch in 1993, Rangers and Delta Force troops went into Mogadishu to capture Somali warlord Mohammed Aidid, and instead 19 U.S. soldiers were killed, their mutilated corpses dragged through the city.

Jimmy Carter also lost an election in 1980, partly because an attempted helicopter rescue of Americans held hostage in Iran turned into a fiasco. The helicopter collided with a transport plane, killing nine and causing the mission to abort.

A factor in Obama's favour today is that U.S. forces are better trained and more adept at improvised warfare today than they were after the retreat from Vietnam and the in early 1990s. Again, Obama was "lucky" that the SEALS were ready.

While SEALs are the poster-boys of derring-do at the moment, one could argue that the British SAS has been doing these sort of operations since the end of WWII. Usually with no advance publicity and no boasting afterwards.

Several books have been written by former SAS types that methodically, and without undue chest-beating, tell harrowing adventure tales in parts of the world that most have never heard of.

The American media make a greater fuss about their military than the British do -- sometimes to the embarrassment of SEAL and Special Forces, who prefer discretion to shouting from rooftops.

In 1976, it was the Israelis who were the gold standard for daring rescues. A C-130 Hercules flew Israeli troops unnoticed into Entebbe Airport in Uganda to rescue 105 Jewish and Israeli hostages who were passengers on a hijacked Air France airliner. A bunch of hijackers were killed, as was the Israeli commander Yoni Netanyahu.

Canada's elite force, JTF 2, is largely unknown and is shrouded in so much secrecy that although they served in Afghanistan, there's no public record of what they tried to do, what they failed to do, what they actually accomplished.

That's the way our government likes it.

 
 
 
  • Comments
  • 13
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Favorites
Recency  | 
Popularity
photo
SantaMonican
Visit the carousel, in the Hippodrome, on the pier
03:32 PM on 01/30/2012
If Presidents make their luck, where was Bushs?
photo
HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
Skepticat
Supporting skeptical felines everywhere
11:34 AM on 01/30/2012
Obama's luck - but fortunately not that of most Americans is that 30 years of neocon policies have effectively destroyed the economy and extreme republican pandering to ideologues and their feral fundementalist fringe has left them with no credible candidates including the reversible but always expedient Mr Romney or the multiple family values Mr Gingrinch. On the other hand this luck is offset by inheriting the worst economic mess since the great depression,two off the books wars and the highest debt load of all time more gifts" of present day conservatives combined with the most obstructive congress on record.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
niumarmion
a temporary being
09:27 AM on 01/30/2012
How lucky was he inheriting a wrecked economy and 2 wars from the previous adminstration?
07:01 PM on 01/29/2012
Mr W reminds me of Oilers broadcasters in the 80's who would declare a goalie 'lucky' if he made a save on a Wayne Gretzky shot.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
05:20 PM on 01/29/2012
"Several books have been written by former SAS types that methodically, and without undue chest-beating, tell harrowing adventure tales in parts of the world that most have never heard of."

Tell that to Andy McNab.

There's nothing lucky about it. SEALs spend every waking moment of their lives training for operations like this, and are harder workers than you or anyone else who hasn't seem them could possibly imagine.
02:46 PM on 01/29/2012
There is nothing in the article that points to any 'luck' involved. The Commander-in-Chief orders a special force that has been training since their sign-up to do what they have been trained to do and it really isn't so amazing that they did it. Where is the luck, Peter? Unlucky may have played a factor had things not gone according to plan but being organized is not considered lucky.
01:35 PM on 01/29/2012
I think it was lucky that nobody seemed to notice how botched of a job he did capturing Bin Laden

I literally thought it was a joke when I first heard that they didn't actually have the body because they threw it overboard the boat in an attempt to sight the muslim religion and its buriul practices
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
opprobrious
More speech. Less Flagging.
10:48 PM on 01/28/2012
Judging by the caliber of potential GOP opponents I'd say Mr' Obama's luck shows no signs of abandoning him anytime soon.
photo
Opygollopy
The more I talk to people, the more I love my dogs
05:23 PM on 01/28/2012
Yes Peter, Luck has lots to do with it. Americans are "lucky" that Obama was elected rather than John McCain. If McCain would have attained the Presidency, America would have completed their journey down the perverbial toilet because he would have continued the failed policies all the way back from Reagan.

We could use someone like Obama here in Canada, Harper is 100% for the wealthy and corporations and to h#ll with the rest of Canada.
12:03 AM on 01/29/2012
Hey, tell you what - you can have him. Not sure what you see looking in from Canada, but from here things are not as rosy as you think. I'll give you this - he is lucky! With his experience and background he should never have been elected president. He is a small time pol with a catchy name. The fact that he was elected makes the rest of us - Not So Lucky!
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
greenmonk
The Only Thing We Have to Fear Is Fear Itself
07:45 PM on 01/29/2012
Most Canadians can only dream of someone like Obama for our Prime Minister. Talk about luck. You Americans are so lucky he came along when he did or you'd be so screwed by now. Old man McCain, who wanted to remain in Iraq for 100 years, and invade Iran, and continue allowing Wall Street to do what Bush let them get away with? And OMG Sarah Palin as VP? LOL. Obama's the most right wing Democrat in a long time, but still too "radical" for some because he at least tries to be bi-partisan and govern, but the party of NO freezes the government.

And for trying to help the unsustainable and expensive medical system there, by helping millions more get insurance and doing away with companies denying based on pre-conditions...thus saving Americans from losing their homes when they have a medical emergency....he gets no respect at all.
03:14 AM on 01/30/2012
hey...I've always thought Mr. Obama would be a good parliamentarian so let's swap..we'll take Mr. Obama, ....and Hawaii since there are some of the TeaParty persuasion who really don't think it's part of America and it would be cool not go through the whole TSA patdown when Canadians fly there.

In return, you can have Mr. Harper..he loves oil I tell yah, Tony Clement (he can re-do Yosmite a la G20 Summit style..it'll only cost a few million) and since she lives in vegas anyway...Celine Dion.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
11:57 AM on 01/28/2012
Very interesting article. I would add to the commentary on candidate “luck” two other notes.

Recent revelations say that the Ronald Reagan campaign actually interceded with “luck” and with Iran to assure that the hostages were not released until after the 1976 election and Carter’s defeat. The released hostages actually crossed into American airspace at the time Reagan was sworn in. http://mountainsageblog.com/2010/05/07/ronald-reagan-interfered-with-president-carters-iran-hostage-negotiations/

Another point of luck, more for a president’s reputation, came for Bill Clinton and his legacy with the illusion of “prosperity” from the dot-com bubble, an unsustainable period of speculative technology investment and over valuation of stock from 1995 to 2000. The dot-com bubble peaked on March 10, 2000, when the technology concentrated NASDAQ composite hit 5,048.62, double its value from just 12 months before.

The market went steadily down from there, and by the time George Bush took office in January 2001, it was in rapid decline. Clinton and the GOP also opened the door to Wall Street abuses when they repealed the Glass-Stegall protections in 2000, permitting the eventual creation of the notorious real estate bubble that eventually collapsed the economy. Bush did plenty to add fuel to the economic meltdown, but Clinton contributed and was LUCKY to get out before the dot com bubble completely popped.