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Ralph Goodale

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Harper's Strategy For Winning? Manipulating the Election Map

Posted: 02/01/2013 12:50 pm

What's a "Gerrymander"?

It's the manipulation of constituency boundaries to give an unfair advantage to one particular political party. The word originated in 1812 with the appalling behaviour of then-Governor "Gerry" of Massachusetts who twisted electoral districts into the shape of salamanders -- just so he could win.

To prevent such bad conduct in Canada, we have long had an independent and politically neutral process for "redistributing" federal riding boundaries every 10 years, according to population changes. The work is not done by politicians to suit themselves. It's done by credible, arm's length commissions that are supposed to reflect the best interests of the public.

In Saskatchewan, the current commission includes a Queen's Bench Judge, a professor emeritus of political science, and the President of the Saskatchewan Association of Rural Municipalities (SARM) -- all hand-picked by the Harper government. (For some reason, the Saskatchewan Urban Municipal Association (SUMA) was not included.)

For the past year, the commission's task has been to devise a new electoral map which distributes Saskatchewan's 14 federal ridings in the fairest possible way. What they've produced is a big improvement over the "old" boundaries now in effect for nearly two decades.

The geographical sizes of proposed constituencies are as manageable as they ever can be in Saskatchewan. The population numbers are well within the allowed range. Historical patterns are respected. And most importantly, "clear communities of common interest" have been better grouped together for more authentic, effective representation.

These are the factors the commission is mandated by law to consider. Their new map is more fair, more balanced and more accurate in reflecting Saskatchewan's changing realities.

Two of those realities are steady population growth and increasing urbanization. A big majority of Saskatchewan people are already urban-dwellers, with fully 40 per cent of our population now living in our two biggest cities of Saskatoon and Regina alone. And yet this province does not have a single urban MP. Not one!

Surely that's a distortion that needs to be remedied. The commission has done so in a sensible and measured way. Instead of stacking all the ridings 14-to-nothing (as the old map does) against any distinctive urban representation whatsoever, the new map provides a balanced mix of constituencies.

Six ridings will be primarily rural (one more than under the old map), five ridings will be urban (three in Saskatoon and two in Regina, instead of none today), and three ridings will be rural/urban blends (namely Moose Jaw-Lake Centre-Lanigan, Prince Albert and Regina-Qu'Appelle).

MPs responsibilities will become more focused. Divided, part-time obligations will be reduced. Both the rural and the urban points of view will be more clearly and more democratically reflected, because the new map better groups their respective interests and allows their distinctive voices to be heard -- undiluted and unobscured.

That's what "community of common interest" means.

A useful comparison can be made with Saskatchewan's two distinctive municipal organizations, SARM and SUMA. We have the two of them because the interests they represent are different.

Mass transit systems vs. grid-roads to service farms and oilwells. City police battling urban gangs vs. contracts with the RCMP to cover RMs. Urban homelessness vs. grain marketing. The examples go on.

These are all big and complex issues. They need focused attention. And that's what they get, from two distinct organizations -- SUMA and SARM.

Both are important. Both are an integral part of Saskatchewan. Both need and deserve effective representation. Some of their issues are similar; but many are not. They work well together. But the distinctive voices of both need to be heard -- loud, clear and unmuddled.

If that were not the case, why not just lump them together in a single group?

When it comes to devising electoral boundaries, our democracy should not be distorted by artificial concoctions in which one point of view will always swamp another. Our voting system should enable all citizens to see themselves fairly reflected in their Parliament. If they can't see that, then people grow cynical and stop participating. Democracy is damaged.

In this spirit of a healthy democracy, the Saskatchewan Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission has done a good job.

But the Harper Conservatives hate the new map -- precisely because it's not rigged in their favour. They're getting ready to interfere in what has been an independent process, so far. Just before a new map is finalized, Mr. Harper wants to change the rules.

Taking a page out of old Governor Gerry's perverted playbook, Conservatives are attacking the thoughtful analysis of their own independent commission and they're setting themselves up to Gerrymander Saskatchewan.

Loading Slideshow...
  • As <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/04/25/electoral-boundary-commissions-canada_n_1451484.html" target="_hplink">electoral boundary commissions begin to carve up ridings</a> to make way for the <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/12/14/house-of-commons-seats-senate_n_1149540.html" target="_hplink">30 new seats being added to the House of Commons</a>, we take a look at how many seats each province is getting and just how fair representation really is in Canada.<br><br> Except in extraordinary circumstances, the population of each electoral district must be within +/-25% of the provincial quota.<br><br> (Shutterstock / <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/tomatogeezer/" target="_hplink">Flickr: Tomato Geezer</a>)

  • Ontario

    Ontario will gain 15 new seats under the Tory bill, bringing the province's total to 121.<br><br> Ontario's population is now 12,851,821 people.<br><br> The size each riding should now be is 106,213 people.<br><br> Percentage of House: Approximately 36 per cent.<br><br> Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 38 per cent.<br><br> (Alamy)

  • Quebec

    Quebec will gain three new seats under the Tory bill, bringing the province's total to 78.<br><br> Quebec's population is now 7,903,001 people.<br><br> The size each riding should now be is 101,321 people.<br><br> Percentage of House: Approximately 23 per cent.<br><br> Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 24 per cent.<br><br> (Alamy)

  • British Columbia

    B.C. will gain six new seats under the Tory bill, bringing the province's total to 42.<br><br> B.C.'s population is now 4,400,057 people.<br><br> The size each riding should now be is 104,763 people.<br><br> Percentage of House: Approximately 12 per cent.<br><br> Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 13 per cent.<br><br> (Alamy)

  • Alberta

    Alberta will gain six new seats under the Tory bill, bringing the province's total to 34.<br><br> Alberta's population is now 3,645,257 people.<br><br> The size each riding should now be is 107,213 people.<br><br> Percentage of House: Approximately 10 per cent.<br><br> Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 11 per cent.<br><br> (Alamy)

  • Manitoba

    Manitoba will gain no new seats under the Tory bill. The province currently has 14 seats.<br><br> Manitoba's population is now 1,208,268 people.<br><br> The size each riding should be is 86,305 people.<br><br> Percentage of House: Approximately 4 per cent.<br><br> Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 4 per cent.<br><br> (Alamy)

  • Saskatchewan

    Saskatchewan will gain no new seats under the Tory bill. The province currently has 14 seats.<br><br> Saskatchewan's population is now 1,033,381 people.<br><br> The size each riding should be is 73,813 people.<br><br> Percentage of House: Approximately 4 per cent.<br><br> Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 3 per cent.<br><br> (<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/justaprairieboy/" target="_hplink">Flickr: Just a Prairie Boy</a>)

  • Nova Scotia

    Nova Scotia will gain no new seats under the Tory bill. The province currently has 11 seats.<br><br> Nova Scotia's population is now 921,727 people.<br><br> The size each riding should be is 73,813 people.<br><br> Percentage of House: Approximately 3 per cent.<br><br> Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 3 per cent.<br><br> (<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/ojbyrne/" target="_hplink">Flickr: ojbyrne</a>)

  • New Brunswick

    New Brunswick will gain no new seats under the Tory bill. The province currently has 10 seats.<br><br> New Brunswick's population is now 751,171 people.<br><br> The size each riding should be is 75,117 people.<br><br> Percentage of House: Approximately 3 per cent.<br><br> Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 2 per cent.<br><br> (Alamy)

  • Newfoundland And Labrador

    Newfoundland and Labrador will gain no new seats under the Tory bill. The province currently has 7 seats.<br><br> Newfoundland And Labrador's population is now 514,536 people.<br><br> The size each riding should be is 73,505 people.<br><br> Percentage of House: Approximately 2 per cent.<br><br> Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 1.5 per cent.<br><br> (Alamy)

  • Prince Edward Island

    P.E.I. will gain no new seats under the Tory bill. The province currently has 4 seats.<br><br> P.E.I.'s population is now 140,204 people.<br><br> The size each riding should be is 35,051 people.<br><br> Percentage of House: Approximately 1 per cent.<br><br> Percentage of Canada's population: Approximately 0.5 per cent.<br><br> (<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/neilwillsey/" target="_hplink">Flickr: n_willsey</a>)

 

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What's a "Gerrymander"? It's the manipulation of constituency boundaries to give an unfair advantage to one particular political party. The word originated in 1812 with the appalling behaviour of the...
What's a "Gerrymander"? It's the manipulation of constituency boundaries to give an unfair advantage to one particular political party. The word originated in 1812 with the appalling behaviour of the...
 
 
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03:02 AM on 02/06/2013
I wonder what the saskabusher's think of Steve trying trying to manipulate them and directly interfere in their electoral process?
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AcunningDisguise
magnus gigas caput
08:27 PM on 02/04/2013
Every move Harper makes now is based on winning the next election.
At which point his power will be complete.
12:22 PM on 02/03/2013
Trying to use another trick imported from the U.S. Republicans, who routinely take all the congressional seats in a state even when the statewide vote goes 56/44 against them. Gerrymandering federal ridings in Canada is more difficult, but Harper will try, and lord help us if he is successful.

We already have an over representation of rural Canada in both Federal and Provincial governments, and this exacerbates the problem. If you look at the most populous provinces, their population per Federal riding is just over 100,000, while in the more rural provinces, it is between 70 and 75 thousand. Harper should be satisfied with this 25% advantage. We can only hope that his overreach in Saskatchewan will draw attention to this problem, and bite him in his britches.

Mel Brundige
09:27 AM on 02/03/2013
You'd think Ralphie, being a good Liberal, would know how politics works. Those in power make the rules. You had your turn, Ralphie, now it's the Con's turn.
09:03 AM on 02/03/2013
don t tell me he s following the p.q agenda.then you find yourself with the winner of the election has the equivalent of 4 seats to .00000000000000 2percent of the vote.
08:05 PM on 02/02/2013
An automated telephone poll being conducted in Saskatchewan is stating:

"The Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission is trying to ruin our proud history by proposing that we pit rural and urban voters against one another in Saskatchewan. If you think that the current boundaries with their long tradition are good the way they are press 2. If you think that they should drastically change the boundaries without public consultation press 3."

(sorry I don’t have the first option)

It is unfortunate the question includes a falsehood as public consultations were held throughout the province in September and October where the Conservatives lined up one after another to complain about the loss of the Rural / Urban seats. It seems to me one could logically draw a parallel to the actions of the Conservatives and the phone poll, with a misleading question (kind of like the black and white, fear mailers I receive from my MP on a regular basis).

In the end, I hope the proposal moves forward and there are strictly urban seats for as a resident of Regina, the capital city, I find it ludicrous my MP resides in a community 45 minutes away, Moose Jaw. I also find it ludicrous in my parents riding here in Regina the boundaries extend so far it takes a drive well over an hour outside of the city to reach the boundary.
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MJinCanada
Safe from zombies until my 2nd cup of coffee
08:01 PM on 02/02/2013
The new map sounds fair to me. I could never see why urban ridings had to take in a big chunk of surrounding rural area, when urban interests vary so much from rural ones.
09:17 AM on 02/03/2013
I live in a village with 23 people but we have a mayor, 2 councilors and a book keeper. Ridiculous. There are over 1000 municipalities in Saskatchewan. The top 6 cities comprise 930,000 of the 1 million people. Your argument is bizarre at best. There should be enormous rural ridings and smaller urban ridings to better reflect population distribution.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
AuntiFascist
Democracy is dead in Canada
07:53 PM on 02/02/2013
Could the Conservative Party of Canada win a majority in a free and fair election.

While I don't know because it hasn't happened yet.

However, since that are years away from the next election and are already starting their dirty tricks I suspect that Stephen Harper thinks they cannot.

What do you call it when a political party steals an election? There is a name.
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09:23 AM on 02/03/2013
Fraud upon the Canadian citizens that did not vote them in
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AcunningDisguise
magnus gigas caput
08:30 PM on 02/04/2013
The cheating in the next federal election will be epic!
Expect outright vote hiding! Denial of the vote to large swaths of the poor and every trick in the book.
07:02 PM on 02/02/2013
" Harper Conservatives hate the new map -- precisely because it's not rigged in their favour. They're getting ready to interfere in what has been an independent process, so far. Just before a new map is finalized, Mr. Harper wants to change the rules.

Taking a page out of old Governor Gerry's perverted playbook, Conservatives are attacking the thoughtful analysis of their own independent commission and they're setting themselves up to Gerrymander Saskatchewan." Thank you for informing us - now how can they be stopped!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Marg Wood
Peace
06:27 PM on 02/03/2013
Good question! Does any one have any answers?
11:22 AM on 02/04/2013
Marg?
It seems our hands keep getting tied tighter and tighter with this guy.
I don't think that anything is going to help until canadians get serious and hit the streets. If they do not then we are taking one hell of a chance of a dictator taking our country. Do people know just how serious this is getting?
If the media would help us out other than constantly patting Harper on the back,it would be a bit easier for folks to make up their minds.
Thje way it is the keep covering for every mistake and bad deed this man pulls on us.
I guess there is far too much money in Harpers ADs.
Where is the loyalty? Treason is rampant with no walls being built to stop it.
It sweems that until violence erupts on the streets the people will get no coverage or assistance whatsoever. Sad,huh??
06:43 PM on 02/02/2013
Harper, manipulating Canadians.
SamEasy
You really don`t want to know.
03:50 AM on 02/03/2013
..........from coast to coast.............but now notice how he is sucking up?? He is even getting his wife involved, and she is probably a closet Liberal..........and that will help him get re-elected.
05:02 PM on 02/02/2013
Three Conservative supporting intellectuals provide the province a fair and balanced approach to this issue. Now the "Cons" want to twist the rules. They are not satisfied with having a majority with 37% of the vote, they want a majority with 35% or less of the vote.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
AuntiFascist
Democracy is dead in Canada
02:05 PM on 02/02/2013
If Harper has the unmitigated gall and contempt for democracy to openly do this then it is time for legal action and open civil disobedience to unseat this Government.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
William Muller
01:36 PM on 02/02/2013
This tactic's straight out of the GOP text books. Except the GOP lost and wants back in next time through this desperate manipulation.
Harper won a majority but greed is taking over. Obviously he sees clouds on the horizon come next election time.
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AcunningDisguise
magnus gigas caput
08:32 PM on 02/04/2013
Don't be surprised by how far he goes!

Harper has NO limits.
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Voices in the Wilderness
12:24 PM on 02/02/2013
The last thing the Neo-cons need is to allow a truly representative Parliament to be elected. It would be their death knell. They would never again be able to form a government or impose their agenda on the majority. They would be reduced for eternity to a radical right rump.
08:16 AM on 02/03/2013
The left-right divide does not exist, as each side is authoritarian on certain issues, libertarian on other issues.
12:22 PM on 02/02/2013
Can the Cons not be satisfied with erroneous robocalls all over the country? It is more apparent with each passing day that they are corrupt and will try to win at any cost.
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AcunningDisguise
magnus gigas caput
08:34 PM on 02/04/2013
Win ? I would question the word Steal is more appropriate at this point I think they are so full of themselves they wouldn't care if we knew.