I'll be live blogging commentary on election results starting at 8pm Mountain, 10pm Eastern. Check back for updates:
11:16 Looks the networks are calling it: PC majority.
11:11 So far two of the three WRP floor crossers are leading. Rob Anderson and Guy Boutilier each have small leads, while Heather Forsyth is trailing slightly in her riding
11:04 Calgary West, and Calgary Acadia are two riding WRP likely had to win if they had any hopes of forming government. Thus far star candidate Ken Hughes and cabinet minister Jonathan Dennis seem poised to win for the PC.
11:00 The early polls are not looking good for WRP. So far the PCs are leading 44%-34%. While few polls are in thus far, star candidates such as Dave Yager and John Carpay are trailing in their ridings. Interestingly, Ron Leech, who made controversial racial comments during the campaign, is trailing in his riding as well.
10:54 The two most interesting races to watch will be Airdrie and Chestermere.
Rob Anderson was the first MLA to cross the floor to the Wildrose Alliance. He is considered to be a major power broker within the party. But he could face a backlash at the ballot box over crossing the floor. He faces a strong competitor in former Airdrie city councillor Kelly Hegg, and could bleed some of the social conservative vote to independent, and former Wildrose Alliance leadership candidate Jeff Willerton.
Ted Morton is facing a big challenge in Chestermere. All indications are going to be that the former PC leadership candidate will lose tonight. Many observers thought of Morton as one of the most likely MLAs to cross the floor when WRP took off. Instead, he went on to become Finance Minister. Morton has been among the most influential MLAs since he was first elected. This may well be the end of his political career.
10:38 In the event of a close race, vote splitting and vote distribution could turn a small lead in the popular vote into a majority govenrment. The PCs have a good shot at a narrow victory in Edmonton, while Wildrose is expected to win by a comfortable margin in Calgary. Wildrose is expected to win the rest of Alberta by a wide margin.
10:18 Most of the recent polls have put the Wildrose Alliance in majority territory with around 41% of the vote. One poll by Forum research came up with a much tighter 38%-36% lead for WRP. This could be partly because it was conducted on a Sunday (Sunday polls are problematic), or it could be that voters are giving second thoughts to giving a minor party a majority governnment at the last minute. We'll find out soon.
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