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A Third Way for De-Nuking Iran

Posted: 02/17/2012 12:33 am

To bomb or not to bomb? That is Israel's question.

In truth, neither option is particularly enticing for the Middle East's only democracy. Should it choose to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, there is a better chance of failure than success. Iran's reactors, we all know by now, are hidden deep in the ground; the chance of destroying the entirety of whatever's down there, even with a sustained, multi-day aerial bombardment, is slim, say the experts.

And even if Israeli bombs could get deep enough to take it all out (and assuming Israel knows the location of every Iranian nuke site, which is not entirely guaranteed), you can't blow up knowledge -- the Iranians would be able to rebuild, in deeper, better protected bunkers. And they're certainly determined and crazy enough to do it.

What if Israel sits back then? This also offers a bleak scenario: U.S., E.U., and UN sanctions will most likely not be enough to make Iran's leaders rethink their position -- President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad opened three new nuclear projects this week, just as a new series of sanctions took effect.

Ordinary Iranians will suffer from rising food prices, but based on the violent way it handled last year's citizen uprising, there's no indication that its religious and political leaders hold any compassion for its citizens. If Israel does not act, the end result will almost certainly be a nuclear-capable Iran headed by a group of wingnuts who believe destroying Israel will make their god happy and deliver them eternal grace.

There is, however, a third option that very few people outside Israel's peacenik community are talking about (though to my mind it isn't necessarily a lefty idea), a manouevre that would once again demonstrate Israel's determination for peace and at the same time put the pressure squarely on Iran.

It's called de-nuking.

In this scenario, Israel acknowledges its own collection of nuclear weapons and announces a willingness to get rid of the entire arsenal in exchange for an Iranian promise to stop pursuing the bomb.

How might this plan play out? The best case is Iran agrees -- its leaders save face as resentment to sanctions grows. There is now an even playing field in the Middle East. Peace talks could ensue. Perhaps more Iranians realize they now have no use for a hard-line leader and Ahmadinejad and the Ayatollahs are tossed out in an Arab Spring-style uprising.

Worst case, Iran refuses the offer, continues building its nukes, and we're back to square one. Except that Israel has earned a psychological and moral victory -- it offered peace to its most dangerous enemy whose refusal proves its demonic intentions. Israel is seen as the good guy looking for peaceful settlement -- a positive international image it lost in recent years as it fought terrorists in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon. Plus, it still has its nuclear weapons, and the firepower to bomb Iran.

The only thing Israel gives up in this scenario is admitting possession of nukes, which everyone knows anyways.

It's so crazy that it might just work.

And it leads to an even bigger set of questions: Does Israel even need nuclear weapons? Or is the bomb actually hindering the Jewish state?

Possession of nuclear weapons was supposed to be Israel's main deterrent from its neighbour-enemies' pursuit of the bomb. That hasn't worked -- Iraq and Syria both tried, and now Iran seems destined to acquire a nuclear arsenal within a few years. The only way to stop Iran at this point is to nuke it, and Israel would never do that, nor should it.

So if having the bomb is leading your enemies to get the bomb, and in the meantime you can't or won't use the bomb, why have it at all?

At this point, de-nuking is the only thing Israel hasn't tried to extricate itself from this mess. There is literally no downside, and everything to gain -- yes, it's a longshot that Iran will come on board, but it's a no-brainer that Israel wins in the court of public opinion no matter how the Iranian regime reacts, which is no small feat.

And if, as many claim, Iran's nuclear program is leading the Middle East once again to war, geopolitical goodwill may very well be an even more powerful weapon than a nuclear bomb when the showdown begins.

 

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11:28 AM on 03/14/2012
Iran been violating IAEA and need to be disarmed!
Any country that violates IAEA regulation must be disarmed
check it out here: http://iranandiaea.wordpress.com/
markhahn
rational progressive
11:01 AM on 02/18/2012
the article is right: nukes always imply MAD, and it takes guts to step away from that insanity.
12:59 AM on 02/18/2012
i think this issue of "suspect" states being "allowed" to have nuclear weapons is ridiculous - let iran have nuclear technology! they say it's for peaceful energy purposes, so take them at their word. i don't believe anyone has patented nuclear technology and arguments against "allowing" iran to have it seem to revolve around the idea that they just aren't responsible enough. well, i believe that the u.s. is the only country to use a nuclear bomb in wartime, including "bunker busters" that hold depleted uranium. it's fear and that is all.
then there's the israel issue. why is it an issue? well, if you look at it through the eyes of the people that lived in present day israel, the united states (via UN) basically plopped a state on top of an already existing nations. so, the creation of israel is the real issue to me. the fact that israel is a manufactured entity has to make some people resentful and for good reason.

imagine taking the whole roma/gypsy population from europe and carving out a section of utah or alabama for them to call their new country. or, even better, imagine europeans coming to canada or the u.s. and, upon seeing that it was a bountiful land, decided to claim it in the name of the king, or christ - oh wait! yeah, that actually happened too. exterminate those pesky indians who get all uppity when we want to build houses - on our own land no less!
12:29 AM on 02/18/2012
Yoni,
I like you idea, but Israel would never agree to disarm.
10:38 AM on 02/18/2012
Iran signed the NPT and that did not stop them from development nuclear weapons. Why would you think that signing another NPT would make any difference?
11:30 AM on 02/18/2012
Iran has not yet breached that agreement.
09:38 PM on 02/17/2012
How about America, China, France, Russia, and the UK agree to get rid of all of our nukes in exchange for Iran agreeing never to pursue nukes? Oh, wait, uhm, all of those nations already made that agreement back in 1961. It is called the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. We are in very serious violation of said treaty, as the International Court of Justice stated back in 1996 that "There exists an obligation to pursue in good faith and bring to a conclusion negotiations leading to nuclear disarmament in all its aspects under strict and effective international control." So, what possible excuse do we have for doing anything to Iran? If we do anything to Iran it will be naked aggression on our part.
08:25 PM on 02/17/2012
Israel would give up on its nukes in exchange for a promise from Iran not to build nukes...This is as stupid as Israel simply nuking itself.
02:04 AM on 02/18/2012
Agreed. the "solution" offered in this article is among the dumbest ever put forth. Iran is hardly the only country that would like to wipe Israel and all Jews off theface of the Earth.
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CreepyThinMan
More dapper than Don Draper.
05:28 PM on 02/17/2012
Are we to expect honesty from someone named Yoni Goldstein?
08:47 PM on 02/21/2012
You should read everyone's work with a critical eye -- not based simply on their name.
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12:13 PM on 02/17/2012
You lost me at the "middle east's only democracy." I think there are a few million non- and second clas citizens begging to differ...
04:55 PM on 02/17/2012
And Turkey -- and new democracies in Iraq, Egypt, Tunisia and potentially Lybia...
10:40 AM on 02/18/2012
Sorry. None of these countries are democracies. Elections or no elections. There is more to a democracy than elections.