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Federal Byelections 2014: Can Trudeau Liberals Keep Up Momentum?

Can Liberals Keep It Up?
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In the four federal byelections to be held in Alberta and Ontario on Monday, will Justin Trudeau's Liberals continue their run of strong performances and score an upset?

Byelections have gone very well for the Liberals since Trudeau took over as leader. They gained support over their 2011 electoral results in all five votes, picking up one seat in Labrador and very nearly gaining another in Brandon-Souris.

On average, the Liberals have gained 17 points across those five byelections, with the New Democrats dropping five points and the Conservatives losing 12.

In those byelections, just as in the ones to be held Monday, the fate of the government was never at stake. The practical implications, then, were minimal. But the results did show polls indicating a Liberal Party surging at the expense of both the NDP and Conservatives were not out to lunch. The lofty polling numbers under Trudeau were being backed-up with actual votes.

The steep drop in Tory support was also echoed in the byelection results. This is unlikely to cause the party much trouble on Monday, however. Its two Alberta ridings, Macleod and Fort McMurray-Athabasca, are in little danger of changing colour even if Conservatives suffer a double-digit loss in vote share.

Fort McMurray-Athabasca, however, will be an interesting one to watch. The population of the riding is growing quickly, and much of the labour force comes from outside of the province, where true-blue conservatism may not be so strong.

But will the Liberals be able to repeat the strong showings they managed in two rural Manitoba ridings in 2013? Prior to that vote, Liberals had a rough time in the West. But a large proportion of Conservative voters swung over to the party. Could something similar happen again?

The real question, though, may be whether Liberals are able to take 20 or 30 per cent of the vote in these ridings and finish a respectable second. In the two Toronto-area contests, the races are likely to be much closer.

As one of the ridings the Liberals held on to in 2011 at a historic low, Scarborough-Agincourt is unlikely to change hands when the party is leading in the polls nationwide. Nevertheless, the Tories could put up some good numbers and keep the race competitive.

The resignation of Jim Karygiannis, the longtime MP for the riding who was heavily involved locally, does open up an opportunity for the Tories. But polls suggest the Liberals are in a good position to hold on, if perhaps with a reduced margin. If that does occur, it would be the first case of the Liberals losing vote share under Trudeau's leadership.

There is a much greater chance of the Liberals making significant gains in Trinity-Spadina. The former downtown seat of Olivia Chow, now running to be Toronto's mayor, was an NDP stronghold in recent elections. But it has traditionally been a Liberal-NDP swing riding, and it could swing again on Monday.

The Liberals scored a coup in getting Adam Vaughan to be their candidate. A popular local councillor (he won three-quarter of the vote in 2010), Vaughan immediately boosted the fortunes of the Liberals in the riding. Successive polls have pegged him as the favourite to win, with NDP candidate Joe Cressy in second. But the NDP has shown resilience in urban ridings in recent byelections, demonstrating an ability to be very competitive when the party has a shot. Cressy cannot be ruled out so easily.

One reason for that is turnout. Though turnout was impressive (for a byelection) at the advance polls, some of that may be due to voters knowing they would not be available to vote on what many will take as a four-day long weekend. The party with the better get-out-the-vote machine may prevail, but the provincial NDP just suffered a stinging defeat in the riding, when a veteran MPP was sent packing by the Ontario Liberals.

If the patterns of the last five byelections hold, the Conservatives will lose vote share but hold their seats in Alberta, while the Liberals make gains there. In Toronto, the Liberals should be able to hold on to Scarborough-Agincourt. What will happen in Trinity-Spadina will likely be the story of the night.

Will Vaughan and Trudeau boost the Liberals past the incumbent NDP, or will Thomas Mulcair's party hold on in a riding they need to win if they have any hope of forming government in 2015?

Éric Grenier taps The Pulse of federal and regional politics for Huffington Post Canada readers every week. Grenier is the author of ThreeHundredEight.com, covering Canadian politics, polls and electoral projections.

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